Tuesday 12 August 2008

The Bear Welcomes You To His Chess-game


In a previous incarnation I spent a number of years studying the Bear and its military. Somewhat immodestly I shall quote from the C@W predictions for 2008


"after the Olympics Russia will make a provocative intervention in another country, just to prove it can"

Pausing briefly to acknowledge the timing error, we should elaborate this point. Russia is often best thought of as a testy old man camped out at a dusty village tavern with a chess-board and several bottles on his table. He looks sluggish and overweight. But he’s seen you coming; he is full of contempt and resentment; and if you sit down at his table he will wipe the floor with you at whichever of his two favourite sports you challenge him.

The Bear has grudges aplenty and, well tanked-up on oil & gas revenues, is in the mood to do something about it. Noting that China has been acting with impunity, and assessing a window of US lame-duck weakness, he sees a fine opportunity to roll back some of the geopolitical gains made right across the Former Soviet Union by the contemptible ‘only superpower’. Whoever is the next US President can expect to start from a position a good few miles further to the west and the south than Cheney would have wanted: Georgia chastised, the Ukraine chastened, and the ‘Stans all realizing that when push comes to shove, they are on their own.

The key feature of chess is that both sides can see all the other’s pieces and dispositions. Cunning and understanding are all. Do we credit GW with either ? or GB ?


ND

14 comments:

Mark Wadsworth said...

That was a good prediction.

As to timing, the Russkies learned the lesson of the 1980 Olympics (they should have invaded Afgh afterwards, not before, what a PR disaster that was!) and this time gambled on Olympics keeping Georgia off the front pages, which sort of half succeeded.

So the war will be over before the final medal is handed out, no doubt.

Anonymous said...

Well, I was and so possibly still am, somewhat of an authority, literally, on the old USSR armies and tactics in Europe. It was all part of my forces training and duties for a time. So I think the long term effects for Russia are more relevant than whether they are winning a PR war.

So here we go with my humble take.

The vast bulk of the old USSR satellites hate Russia, with a real passion, and would gladly love to kick them in the balls. So Russia is, very stupidly and short term..ly(?) is making a real rod of hate for it's own back that it could very much regret in the future as these satellites start to resist against a wider Russian federation. Apart from that Russia is building up it's own massive problem with breakaway regions, which is more about what this is, showing their strength.

So Russia is facing a huge problem from breakaway regions (did you think Czechnya was a one off? Not on your life, and the Ruskies haven't won there) and also the fact that they do not and never have made good soldiers, at least not in enough numbers; their culture won't allow it and those who were the cream of their armies and cultural marshal traditions they culled many years ago...in short they are fucking useless if things start to go badly except for weight of numbers.

The USA learned many decades ago, from Britain BTW, that a softly softly approach worked very well for the long term when it comes to expansion and empire building. Russia still thinks it is a world power in their region because they are the biggest and haven't learned the lessons of their recent past.

The Russians will be the ultimate losers here because of cretins like Putin.

Anonymous said...

A friend of mine recently wanted a map of some property his company had purchased oop North. By far the best available was a Soviet targetting map. You can buy them now, apparently. Much superior, he happened to be in a position to tell me, than our targetting maps of the USSR. On reflection, that may well be because they had far more spies here than we had there.

Nick Drew said...

perhaps, Mark, but I wonder whether they don't actually enjoy rubbing everyone's noses in this, so 'after' works as well as 'during', we shall see

houdini - thanks for pitching in, your's is a slightly different perspective on this to mine

dearieme - are they available online ??

Richard Elliot said...

This new found Russian scares me and there seems nothing that we can do about it. I hope Georgia retruns / can become a viable sovereign state again soon.

Letters From A Tory said...

Russia have learnt that opposition to their actions only comes in verbal retorts.

They must be feeling very smug right now.

Newmania said...

Is it any of our business? Georgia has never had a stable border and the history of actions close to the border , Ireland , Israel US is all a bit murky , you don't fuck around ,close to home.
I must take issue with this habitual dissing of George Bush , as I have (plug plug ) blogged today , he has got the basics right and should the US decide to let the EU/(or ghostbusters ?) sort out the next problem we will all be in the merde

I am disappointed that such a well respected thingy as Nick Drew should fall into this lazy Liberal Bush bating From such a revered and sage like analyst it is indeed a let down....etc.

roym said...

isnt this russian belligerence another useful tick in the plus column for investment in our own clean coal technology? perhaps if we werent so reliant on their gas, putin wouldnt be so smug?

Nick Drew said...

Roy, Richard, Letters - yes, Putin feels pretty cocky just now, and he's parlayed his current strength into some handy short-term gains.

Long-term is a different matter, for sure - but it does rather hinge on the adroitness of our own decision-making. For example, I agree with Roy on coal, of course, but let's see Brown or indeed the Tories do anything tangible about it

Mr Mania - that crashing sound you hear is the revered sage thingy stomping over to have words at your place

Anonymous said...

Putin was supposed to have stepped down - but now we know he is really still pulling the strings. Old habits die hard. Russia slips back into totalitarianism and now the rest of us know exactly where we stand.

I suspect that this adventure was nothing more than more posturing from the old KGB cold-warrior flexing those aging muscles of his. Did he have intentions to do more in Georgia? Did the sudden decline in the rouble and the Russian stockmarket as money started to pour out of Russia cause him to pull back? They are not quite as wealthy as the Beeb/Grauniad would have us believe.

Those Ruskies need to keep a closer eye on the Chinese. They have good reason for turning on an underpopulated Russia for the age old reason of liebensraum. The Chinese know how to fight. Not communist comrades now, although no doubt the Chinese are happy to go along with playing that game if it means that they get to know plenty about the Russian military.

Wolfie said...

So you don’t consider the American training and Israeli equipment to be just a little bit provocative? It’s a rough neck of the woods down there and insults alone won’t keep the republics in order.

Simon Fawthrop said...

Good post. Its prompted me to put down my thoughts about these countries joining NATO. I have been concerened for a while that it wasn't a good idea and hat it will lead to the ventual demise of NATO, if not literally but in practice, as it won't be able to apply the principle of an attack on one being an attack on all.

Nick Drew said...

yes, anon, the Russians have good cause to fear the Chinese - and they do. I spent a year in Russia in the '90s and encountered much fear & loathing, not to mention other negative sentiments

Wolfie - I'd even guess it's meant to be, which is rather lacking in the statesmanship dept, especially where face means quite a lot

GS - yes, there would inevitably be a first- and second-class membership distinction, which would then opensthe question as to who falls into which category ...

the first issue when holding nukes is, does anyone believe you'd ever use them ? (Israeli nukes are quite cost-effective in that regard)

Anonymous said...

aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,

做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,