Mr market has caught the flu

So the FTSE has moved down to near 6500 - a 13% decline in week. Perhaps, as ever things are overdone but the market was last at these levels consistently in 2014 and there was one spike to this level in 2016 - we all know why then.

For myself, well there maybe more posting as there is going to be a lot less business travel in the near future. The content I am seeing from City analysts broadly syas the current phase is likely to last 1 -2 months and to remind everyone that in China, where containment seems to haev worked, the factories and offices are opening again.

A friend of mine in Hong Kong has just gone back to work after five weeks enforced working from home. however, in the West it maybe that we escape or that we don't and have to endure a month or two of China style lock-down. It is hard to tell, hence the market reaction.

Also we should not forget in the wider macro environment China has just printed a couple of hundred billion of new currency, as has Japan. If the West somehow operates on, with higer interest rates we could counter-intuitively see a rush of hot money into Sterling and Sterling assets - again if we start to suffer like Asia, then this money will find a different outlet.

To me too the comparisons to Sars and Bird Flu are worrying - this flue is no more lethal but far more infectious - which seems to be the trend in these cycles. So how much worse could the next one be in 5 to 10 years?