September and October could be fun

- Chinese Industrial output at 17 year low


- Germany therefore heading into recession (I don't think many realise just how tied to China the German economy has become)


- US Trade War still fun


- Brexit issues


- Hong Kong on edge of a crackdown


- Argentina defaulting


So overall, a right pretty face for the world economy. Markets as we often say find ways of tanking in September and October if they are going too. This yeas, how do they not find a way!


Equally, a recession with real interest rates at such low levels will be very strange indeed with hard to predict outcomes. For a domestic example, short supply of UK Houses coupled with huge mortgage availability and low rates will stop a very over-inflated market from falling very far. Which in terms means the mortgage supply won't be turned off - so a very limited impact.

What is an "anti-corruption" drive?

In looking a little wider whilst we wait, comatose, for the next round of Brexit talks. It is certainly an interesting world in 2017.


First up, the Government revolution in Saudi Arabia. The new young prince has certainly decided to shake-things up. The most ironic thing I have read in years is his detainment of various cousins and wealthy Sheikhs in Saudi Arabia on an 'anti-corruption drive'.... Ha, well, I guess he would know about it from his past.


This is a pet peeve of mine recently, why do the media always repeat these Government lines. Every time a non-democratic Government arrests the opposition or tries to get its own mafia in power, they label it an anti-corruption drive. What they really mean is a pro-corruption drive in their favour.


Only this week in Zimbabwe we can see this in action again. Afraid that Mugabe will gift all his wealth and power to his missus, the army have stepped in to get rid of her....and install their own puppet. There is no chance of an election or real democracy or hope that the people will get a look in. No, the deal is to bring back an exile who will turns the taps on their way.


China is perhaps the most important victim of this kind of approach too. There are seven mafia groups in China within the Communist party who operate broadly on family lines. President Xi has not only made his the most prominent, but has set about dismantling tow of these groups totally and reducing the influence of the others. Where once upon a time after him another group would get its turn, now instead the idea is his team stays in power. All the while, for years now, the media in the West faithfully reports this as an anti-corruption drive.


The list goes on and on, perhaps only Brazil of late had a real anti-corruption drive that was labelled accurately as such.