Showing posts with label Iceland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iceland. Show all posts

Monday, 22 October 2012

Iceland or Ireland?

As time goes by we often wonder what would we have done differently if we had our chances again? The fate of life means that we do not get to undo our mistakes or change our choices. Nor do we know how things would have worked out if we had chosen a different path.

Yet, in our economically broken Western world, there is one nation that chose a different path. Iceland did not go for a too big to fail choice - after all who was going to help? Iceland went for the full blame the bankers option, including defaulting on all foreign debt and leaving the UK and Netherlands to pick up the bill for defaulting Icelandic banks.

Ireland went for bailing out banks it could not afford and believing a promise from the EU that it would help out. Now Ireland and Iceland both suffered huge jumps in unemployment, whilst the Irish currency held together, the Krona collapsed and with it living standards in Iceland...fora while.



But here we are 4 years later and Iceland has 2% growth, is being re-rated in the debt markets, has strong exports and a primary budget surplus. Ireland has only the good exports bit, unemployment remains high, even having the euro as its currency has not kept up the living standards as wages have fallen so far.

Indeed in Iceland the rich have suffered by far the most as their assets were wiped out, this has a long-term impact on ability to grow the domestic economy as the savings rate has fallen, but then Iceland's populace has voted in 2 referenda to make sure it happened this way


So here is the comparison, yes Ireland is 10x the size of Iceland and all comparisons will have to be seen in the light of this, but 4 years on and the economies are going in opposite directions. I can;t say that Ireland made the right choice looking at the results - sometimes a hard landing is worth the pain in the medium term.

Friday, 10 October 2008

A week is a long time in global economics


Who would have predicted?

- Brown to buy ALL our banks

- The Dow to be below 900 and sinking fast enough to take General Motors down (they need to turn huge loans, not likely to get them....).

- Iceland to go bankrupt and screw our local councils, then we declare economic war by using terrorist legislation against them (oh, but there is NO law of unintended consequnces...)

- A global 0.5% rate cut to have no bounce effect on the markets.

- Gold to be nearly unchanged.

Phew, much more too. Next week should be fun. Today we get the results of the Lehmans CDS shake-out, who will get caught when the music stops?