Back again - quick round-up

Apologies to the readership for the break in transmissions, I was away on an intense business trip all last week. It meant I missed the fun of the end of COP26 - which seems to have been successful in generating the hot air it promised. Also I missed the press get down and dirty on more MP's for their second jobs. 

The second jobs piece is of interest because it will always be skewed, many Tory MP's had real careers and jobs which is a good thing. They then try to carry these on whilst living on lower incomes as MP's - this may or may not be a bad thing, depending on how they are earning their silver. Labour will never suffer the same and most of their current MP's are morons and useless party acolytes. One of the few successful ones is Keir Starmer and the morality police are banging down his door as much as the Tories. They won't be after the deputy Labour leader, who by any estimations is totally unemployable so of course does not have a second job. Labour will always do better here, just as they will see more of their MP's sent to prison for criminal misdemeanours from their stupid and grasping intakes of grifters. 

All of this is pummelling the Government in the polls and quite right too. Labour Budgets, poor political tactics and incompetent leadership - nothing like some large poll leads and some by-election defeats to help concentrate the minds a little onto important matters of state. 

Interestingly though, having travelled in Europe much of the week, it is of note that basically the UK has had the right strategy all along with Covid. So much of the remainer-led criticism has been plain wrong and continues to be. The fully lockdown-enthralled states are not doing any better than us and are gearing up for another heavy wave just as we muddle-through with no restrictions and limited deaths. In politics of course, this is a massive loser being right - because there are plenty of anit-vax idiots and commie-lockdown worshippers to help keep the narrative going of poor Government choices. 

The ides of March come early for Brexit

"Et Tu, Jeremy?"

And so, as long predicted by myself, Parliament is rapidly waking up to its true purpose. To end the horrid charade of Brexit once and for all.


As yet, there are only still the quiet whispers of betrayl. Brexit stands on the statute book as Caesar once stood in the senate. Proud, Loud and maybe a little naïve.


But the enemies gather, Jeremy Corbyn, a true friend to Brexit, has been forced the by disintegration of his party, into being bounced by the evil Keir Starmer (he has conspired with the enemy throughout the negotiations) into the position of seeking both a 2nd referendum and to campaign for remain in that referendum.


With Labour gone, only the ERG stand with the DUP in Parliament in favour of any sort of Brexit. Between them they have maybe 100 votes versus 450 or more.


So it is over. Parliament will vote against no deal, and/or vote for an extension lasting years or more and the whole process will be over. People are bored and the momentum behind leave will be left as a dangerous sore in UK politics. It seems quite likely Farage's party will rise up in the polls for the disaffected but to what end who knows as yet?


May will be happy, she has one last chance to get the ERG to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement and failing that she can sail off on the good ship remain, saying she did her best and the 'nutters' were intransigent.


If I were in the ERG I would vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, for its floors it does still meets the test of being a Brexit and moves the UK off the path of further EU integration. However, the bellicose and frankly stupid ERG members I think will opt for the happier ideological place of feeling betrayed by the murderer's of Brexit and blaming others for their own failure, forever. Weirdly they may revel in their own 'stab in the back' narrative, which they think will bring solace rather than danger.


Of course, I say Brexit is doomed, but then so riven too will be the body politic in the UK for a generation or more. Only a few weeks now until the new dawn, that will include, rightly, the end of the Tory party and from a perspective of the business position of the UK, the end of any party that supports capitalism having a chance of power for generations. There is no way the Tories can survive calling referendum and then cancelling Brexit - they are done. May has destroyed them. None of their replacements will be free market in principle, all will be either socialist or nationalist in beliefs. That is a big shame for the long-term future of the Country, as socialism will mean a more structured and higher tax economy that will reduce our dynamism.


 Perhaps in decades to come, poor economic performance will lead to the resurgence of free market beliefs, but looking to the EU and the US, this feels unlikely to be the actual future.

It's still the economy stupid - lessons from America

One strong lesson from current politics in the USA this week, is that despite the rapidly changing world around us, it is still the economy that drives politics.


The Democrats in the US, broad church though they are, have much of the Corbynista about them. Many of them are utterly obsessed with identity politics, socialism and many kinds of other ideologies that allow for a stand on both victimhood and hate of the right.


Trump of course, plays this gallery well. He has no votes in the assorted misfits of the Left, but a strong base in the right of the party which can be motivated by anti-immigration rhetoric and tax cuts.


The critical bit is how thought Trump holds onto the centre. At the moment, he has lost the House and held the Senate, without getting into the entrails of it all, the Republicans have had a pretty good run. Especially when you take into account the social media driven accounts of the 'Blue Wave' and the contempt Trump is held in - especially abroad. As ever, the BBC and Sky just can't quite believe that Trump gets any votes at all given how execrable he is.


So how does he hold up the  centre, the swing votes, when the USA as a Country is as divided as Brexit Britain?


The answer is the economy, which through his pump priming, is going great guns indeed. Enough that people who have jobs, can apply for jobs and see wage growth are happy. Happy enough to vote for more of the same, even with all the terrible rhetorical baggage that comes with the President.


Overall, Trumps divide and rule is not a great way for us to drive human society forward. However, for the Tories in Government, a salutary lesson will be that even if they deliver a fudged half-Brexit, if they focus on getting the economy ticking over, job growth and wage growth, then Corbyn and McDonnell will never get the look in - after all, their ideological baggage is at least as bad as the Tories and certainly worse in some areas.


Sadly, the soft Tories we have are not clear enough on the economic development of the Country and instead are playing to Labour's tune of throwing money at the NHS and public services. There is time to change this around though over the next few years if hey can get their act together - which of course, is another story...

What will replace Corbyn?

I can't claim any political soothsaying baubles, especially in the 21st Century where politics has been cast, across the world, into a dark abyss since the Financial Crisis and growing global demographic crisis.


However, I can opine that Jeremy Corbyn will not be Prime Minister of the UK - except in the unlikely event of some emergency election foisted by Parliament in the next few months. Given what happened to the Tories just last year, there is zero chance of this coming to pass.


His toxicity of views has alienated far too many people for Labour to gain position as the largest party. Worryingly, it seems for many in what is becoming a cult following, his peaceful grandpa exterior is enough cover for his enablement of hard politics - race and class hatred have exploded under his 'peaceful' leadership. But I can't see more than 40% of people really falling for this and putting and X in the box for such extremism. He has done well, when UKIP followed a similar path they topped out at far less support, albeit they did not have the Labour machine to buttress them.


But what will come next? Firstly, he is elderly so the excuse of age is ready made for him to step aside. The obvious next leader is John McDonell, but he too shares the same baggage which has done for Corbyn, so there is no point to that. Then the challenge is the rest of the left wingers, your Clive Lewis' of this world, are very crap indeed and would be exposed very quickly. Even worse than the Tory opponents, my to my incredulity.


In the middle of the Party there are some more likely, albeit odd, candidates such as Emily Thornberry - but I can't see them at the moment seizing the crown from the ultra-lefties. It would be seen as too much of a betrayl when the beloved Grandpa is already exiting the stage - if anything, Momentum will be trying to find a more shouty and righteous voice for the far left. So it is as of now almost impossible to see what we will have post-Corbyn. The left need a person who cold actually be Prime Minister, not another Neil Kinnock.


One huge downside of all this is that the Tories are mucking about too, faffing with May whilst struggling to identify the next generation who she skilfully does not promote - perhaps Javid or Hunt will be the next in charge. At least the Tories have people of experience and substance, the left are fetishing those who are oppressed and have done nothing but complain - neither of which will allow them to win an election let alone achice much once in power.


Is this correct, or is it yet more wishful thinking on my part?

High Tax Labour and High Tax Tories is a hell of a choice

This is the choice we are presented with in the Country at the moment. The current Conservative Government, devoid outside of Michael Gove, of any reforming zeal have transmogrified into New Labour - all the worst bits of it.


Unable to agree or solve the gordion knot of Brexit, their domestic agenda is a barren wasteland.


Into this policy-free zone jump our ever eager civil servants. All with bright ideas about how to make things better in each Government department. Every idea well thought out and researched by Love Island contestants. Of course, these policies cost money, they need more civil servants to enact and more importantly directors on higher pay scales to manage them. So the net impact is a large request for more money.


This is exactly how New Labour operated - well meaning lefties in the civil service dreaming up new ways to control our ways and shove 'improvements' onto the populace all at their expense. What jollies!


Only the strongest and best governments, who have their own agenda and Ministers with the peoples' interests at heart can avoid this trap. For Cameron, he had George Osborne and the recession to keep things tight, but that is now over.


Of course the real loons in the Labour party will be far worse. Rather than asking the Civil Service for ideas, they have their own crazed spending commitments - so crazy the Civil Service might think about trying to turn the volume down on some of them. Either way, the country will be bankrupt within 3 years of a Corbyn/McDonnell Government.


So what a choice, it is yet another reason to get rid of the dismal May as Prime Minister - for into the vacuum only bad things are projected.

Not Long now...stressful times as EU deadline approaches

For all the endless talk of deadlines and deals re the Brexit negotiations, the finishing line is finally in sight. In a little over 3 weeks we will know what is to happen in 2018.


To me, this underlines quite why we are seeing so much made of grope-gate and Boris-gate and anything else the Remain team in the media and Parliament can use. They know they really need to distract and discredit the Government, just as Michel Barnier knows now is the time to make the most outrageous demands. Sadly for the UK, the EU has indeed maintained a solid front and ignored the calls of business for any kind of compromise, at least for now. So the pressure is being piled on in the hope of a collapse in the Leave government.


So, instead we are still at the point of the EU effectively demanding £60 billion (not Euros, natch!), the effective incorporation of Northern Ireland into the EU customs union and better rights for EU citizens in the UK than UK citizens.


Hopefully, this is the prelude to them screwing a great deal out of the UK and then magnanimously
offering a transition and free trade deal. It might not be, but that is my hunch.


This would be the best outcome, a no-deal really would be bad.  Remainers will go into overdrive, businesses might panic and real harm could be done. At least the pound would fall which will massively mitigate any decisions to re-locate staff and business. Worse though will be the pure chaos of Government that the Country would suffer for years. If the Tories survived they would very likely lose to Corbyn and the Labour left who would proceed to further destroy our society.


So, here's hoping for a deal, I don't care whether it costs £20 billion or £80 billion, that is nothing as compared to a long-term Corbyn Government!

Will Tsipras win the election for Cameron?

I come back from abroad for a couple of weeks and realise there is a complete left-wing take-over of the UK in prospect! Blimey!

The first thing I see is a group hug on the telly of three loony-left non-English women all high fiving because they have been discussing magic money tree economics and saying Farage is a racist and Tories eat babies.

It's like a form of weird time travel to the early 1980's militant timezone.

Worse for the forces of the Right, the Tories seem to have forgotten about sound money and campaigning on their successful(ish) economic record in favour of attacking a Labour and the SNP - which just by doing so is giving them more legitimacy.

Even weirder in this bizarre world, the opinion polls which now appear daily like cluster bombs, are showing precisely no changes to anything with all the Parties stuck on around the same likely voting figures for months on end. The very definition of hot air.

So we await a so-called 'Black Swan' an event to change the dynamic of the election. As ever, this can be anything from a major disaster to a Foreign Policy issue or even a Royal Baby.

The only one I can foresee happening is the rapid end to the Greek stand-off. Domestically the Greek government is very popular just at the time when the EU is rallying to Germany's side. The QE in Europe has sucked up so much of the bond market that there is confidence that a Grexit could be contained and managed.

This may be misplaced, maybe not. Certainly I do not believe a 10% fall in UK GDP from Grexit that some of the madder Euro-enthusiasts like to spout.

However, the money is due to run out in Greece in mid-May and even now the Government is hoovering up money from local authorities to try and keep the salaries and pensions paid. This is desperate stuff an may not work.

A sudden Grexit or the panicky build up to it in Early May would surely be a big boost for the Tories - on a no change and sound economic management platform - maybe enough to get them to largest party with a minority Government. Logically, UKIP should  benefit to as the overall insanity of the EU is exposed further for the damage it is doing to constituent member countries who happen not to be Germany.

It's a sad state of affairs for right wingers that we are left hoping for this to avoid a Communist take-over...

UKIP won't cost the Tories an election they want to lose anyway

Boris Johnson and the rest of the Tory front bench are clearly very angry at uppity UKIP ruining their conference by stealing their pesky MP's.

From the tone of the Tories, they did not seem to like these Carswell and Reckless people anyway.

However, it is the Tories who are right to be angry, after 4 years of Government, they have never been ahead in the polls since 'austerity' started - and they won't be until they leave Government in May 2015.

Why is this?

Well there are some interesting points that the Tory party seems to have missed:

1) The Boundaries of the current parliament are hugely in favour of Labour, by as much as 3% of the vote. The Tories had a chance to change this, but were beaten politically by the Liberal Democrats over AV and Lords reform.
2) This is not a minor issue, the Lords really does need reform. Alot of the Scottish referendum debate was around how Westminster is a closed shop and not very democratic. The Lords is key here, a reformed Lords could be the Federal key to governing the UK. The Tories walked away from all this, saying it is inconsequential.
3) There are not votes for Tories in 'Austerity' light. When the Euro Crisis came along the Tories copied Ed Balls plan. So they have the image of austerity to harm them, but no fruits to offer in terms of the Country's finance now being more sound - anyone who looks in detail can see any small accident and our rickety public finances will be finished.
4) The Tories promised huge cuts in immigration - immigration has expanded overall under the Tories. There is more than ever, over 250,000 net new people last year. No wonder we have a housing crisis.
5) We have been offered Scottish Referendums, referendums on AV - everything but the EU - the monster which forces Immigration and other issues to be so painful. Whilst the establishment might win a referendum, a refusal to offer a real one for years is a useless political fix which Cameron is now paying for.

Finally, and most importantly, is the betrayal of Thacther's legacy to blue collar workers. Low taxes, the ability to buy a home, the ability to get on in life. All of these things were strangled by the workfare of Labour and the high taxes this imposed on those of limited means. It has meant that under about £40,000 a year of income there is little real difference in living standards for many people. - it is a socialist utopia. The Tories have done very little to change this, fiddling at the edges. It is not surprising so me that traditional Tory areas like Kent and Essex, full of aspiring and hard working blue collar workers, are the first to give up - seeing that Tories are little different to Labour in offering a statist solution on incomes.

Ed Milliband offers this same solution, you may as well vote for the real deal; which is why he will be Prime Minister next year.

Lib Dem implosion harms Cameron and destroys Coalition politics

The silly 'scandals' around the Liberal Democrat party - which whilst unpleasant would not be frontline new in a world where children are murdered and raped in Syria every day, were it not for a media inspired storm, are nonetheless putting the final bullets into a potential future Conservative Government.

The Tories have long been in a bad position electorally, their votes pile up in the South and nowhere else, leading them to have a large market share, but poor return under firs past the post. With Lib Dem votes now going to leave the yellow's that remaining parties will divvie up the votes.

As the protest party has beocme UKIP, since the LD's went into Government and the official opposition is the labour party it is not hard to see where the LD vote goes. Very little will flow to the Tory party - who are 8% behind in the polls anyway with just over a year to go to the election.

Who would have thought that when the Coalition was formed that it would be such an electoral disaster for both parties. The idea that we have another Coalition Government in the next few years is fanciful - the learning surely will be to try to lead a minority Government.

All that effort on trying to fix the economy for George Osborne has gone to waste.