Where is TINA?

 In the aftermath of Boris, where is she? Where is she?

Margaret Thatcher famously said, to get her middle of the road right-wing policies through, that;

THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE

This surely is what the Conservative Party is looking for. The obvious anti-dote to the Boris sleaze poison with the added benefit of being more electable that Keir Starmer. 

On paper, this should not be too hard. Starmer occasionally comes out with policies still written in deepest Corbynism that won't be very popular at the ballot box and has shunned the idea of going for Rejoin the EU which likely would grab a big chunk of votes in the aftermath of a non-event Brexit which is not proving to be very helpful.

However, Boris has left a big trap for his successor. Boris was a very leftwing and big state Tory politician. Yes some of his henchmen like Cummings may have been against all that, but the facts are big state Boris threw the Government into the pandemic, offering furlough and all sorts and has nationalised the railways by stealth. He has then instructed his Chancellors to raise taxes to higher levels than Gordon Brown dreamt of. 

This of course has solidified the Northern seats which the Tories gained and has outfoxed Labour who still need to release Corbynite madness to try and outflank the Tories. Meanwhile the mad online world of lefties is busy trying to say the Tories are the new nazi's and it is a charge that does not stick. 

But who can re-balance the party, towards more conservative social and liberal economic policies, that will be needed to manage down the mad Government spending of Boris?It will need someone good at communications and also at home with some basic economic theory. For this, they may well lean towards Rishi Sunak, but a non-dom billionaire is a very bad choice for leader during a prolonged recession and it is his stupid policies that have put us in this mess. 

Penny Mordaunt and Jeremy Hunt show little sign of understanding economics of the broad changes needed to reduce Government interference in the economy and the constant mis-allocation of resources that increases our debts to no effect. They are focused on themselves with no concept of what a Government could or should do beyond having them as leaders. 

This will leave in reality a true right-winger needing to come through. The only one I can see at all being capable is Kemi Badenoch, who like Thatcher herself, is young and untried but very bright and determined. 

If she gets to the final two it would be amazing. However, I doubt this will happen, a nothingness run off between Sunak and Hunt or Mordaunt will produce a caretaker Government keen to hand the problems onto Labour for a decade or so. 

West taking gambles and risks too quickly

 A goof debate on the last thread, the situation in Ukraine moves quickly and it has become the most dangerous crisis of my lifetime in short order.

Russia is defeated, if not on the ground then in the world opinion. The crazy nations like North Korea, Brazil and Iran are not going to save Russia. Even India and China are staying neutral. 

The huge sanctions placed on Russia are going to bite much more quickly than Putin imagined. Equally, the ground war is taking much longer and maybe much more bloody than expected. 

The West is full of preening Politico's and media today very pleased with themselves at Unity and the usual # mentality - echoes of "#Bring back our Girls".

In the real world, we are at the most dangerous point now. Putin won't stand a loss. Heavy and horrible weapons will be used on cities. Already Katyusha's fall on Karkiv which is a Russian populated city. Putin also darkly threatens nuclear retaliation of the real kind. 

I understand the West is also concerned to send China the right message re Taiwan, that this could be your fate too, but this is very risky. Indeed, I can't believe cool heads are war-gaming this properly because the chance of nuclear weapons being used is climbing - from an infinitesimally low number to something in the low digits percentages. Much like the Cuban missile crisis. 

Of course, if Putin is going to end up destroying the world whether we deter him this week or not makes little difference, it is up to the Russian army alone to fix the problem. However, some calmer thought and more work behind the scenes instead of in front of the camera's is desperately needed. 

The End of Brexit and the return of the Remainers

 Why do I write this you ask? 

Well if you recall the crazy days of 2016 there were 4 very strong Brexiteers. Farage, Boris and Gove with guidance from Cummings. They really led the charge  to the Brexit vote. In more recent times, the brain charged with delivering Brexit has been Lord Frost and he has made his excuses and exited stage left (because of Covid, allegedly). 

Here in 2021, Boris is on the edge, his reputation will never recover from this, even if he limps back up a bit for a while. Farage is a radio host and Cummings sniping from the sidelines, disillusioned by the realities of power. 

Meanwhile, remain leader - Keir Starmer - is happily sitting an waiting for the Covid mess to hand him the keys to No 10. Future Tory leaders like Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are both europhiles. 

Whilst no one, above all Brussels, will want us back in the EU full time. The machinations will begin to get the UK into the vast majority of EU things, maybe even the army using Ukraine shenanigans as cover. 

Won't it be ironic, that the outcome of the Covid pandemic will be a long-term remainer victory? Even though in reality the jabs, boosters and even-handed approach to the science have overall been very effective from the Government since the early disasters of March 2020. 

Who is there available to the Tories who could credibly lead the post-Boris Brexit faction. The loonies on the right of the party like Andrew Bridgen are only going to make things worse - who is there?

Not a very merry Xmas in Downing Street..or the Country

 A new baby, no money, no friends....attacked for a party he did not even go to. 

Boris won't be full of Christmas cheer. 

He has a lot of mouths to feed on his PM salary. Even more now but his happy day is not so much for Boris Johnson. 

I won't be surprised to see him quit in January. He always wanted to be Prime Minister and he has been. Because of Brexit it will always be remembered and Covid would have ruined anyone at the helm, there was just now way to come out of it looking good. Even the Goddess of the Left in New Zealand or Princess Nicola in Scotland have started to come unstuck. 

More worryingly, who will take over. I fear Rishi has not the 'common touch' of Boris. Raab is an idiot who doesn't know where Dover is and Liz Truss is more likely to be another May than a Thatcher. None of us could stand Gove, although  his streetwise and intellectual heft means he is probably the best of the cabinet. 

Luckily for them, they only have to face Sir Kneel of Lockdown and have a stonking majority to defend in any election. 

More widely, in times of Crisis we have typically had more PM's and also in the new media age, I wonder if over-exposure to politicians is reducing their sell-by dates even further. Even Thatcher may have found the endless well of hate emitting from Twitter difficult to live with. 

COP26 Finance mandate - another free cop out for Finance titans

 If you work in any large organisation in the UK or the West over the last few years, you will be well aware of the cultural capture by left-leaning values that has engulfed CEO's and Human Resources teams. 

Aware that trying to engineer upwards growth for their business all the time is hard work, Chief Exec's have rushed to discover the need to promote diversity and inclusivity and set these cultural targets that are rather easier to achieve - but achieving them allows the same bonus to be earned. 

The new wave of course is climate change and the impact on companies of this. In some ways a big positive, flying junior staff around the world for various not so important meetings has been ended by the pandemic - at no loss the the staff or companies really in the Zoom enabled ear. Lower carbon miles must be a good thing in the round, but this has been a side benefit of the pandemic, not the result of firm action by companies. 

Reducing investments in oil and gas, like tobacco and arms before, has proved easier and also allows for some wiggle room when finding somewhere to blame for poor investor returns. As does overly investing in green energy and infrastructure projects where lower returns can be promised in return for some feelings of moral superiority. 

In fact, many centuries ago the protestant reformation was started by Martin Luther, angry at indulgences sold by the Pope's to absolve people of their misdeeds. The new found obsession with Sustainability seems to have many similarities - look at the rich and famous flying into Glasgow to espouse their morality and direct everyone else's behaviours, much like the Papacy of the Middle Ages. Pontificating in Glasgow has a nice ring to it, eh?

Returning to avarice driven CEO's, the new Net Zero mandate is manana from heaven for them. They will be able to run their large companies with a view to reducing emissions, lets not worry about profits and market share, all very difficult in a competitive market. Instead we can have lots of internal meetings about vision and strategy, employ consultants and come to some obvious conclusions, like abandoning offices and commuting in due course. All the while getting paid the full whack of pay and with ready made excuses for any economic downside "its for the good of the planet."

Their personal jets, houses, jacuzzi's and mistresses jewellery will I predict remain untouched - as much as those of Prince Charles.  Whether the world gets any benefits; maybe, maybe not. 

Hardman Rishi - does he have the grit for the job?

It is budget week in the UK and Rishi Sunak can hardly be described as a hardman or dictator. But the challenges facing the UK now are very hard to answer by democratic political targeting. No amount of money can fix the NHS, the concept is not right for modern medicinal costs. The hardest up in society will always want more, the cost of fixing the economy to net zero is incredible. Minor tax rises wont be the answer. 

If Government could look to the long-term there maybe a way forward that involve some very hard choices and some real ones - guns or butter - nuclear power stations or nuclear missiles? The lights going out or more tax breaks for relatively less polluting gas. These don't seem insurmountable even in a democracy, but the way that say Singapore or Dubai are able to take steps forward seems much clearer to making hard choices - there is a ruler and that it that, no pesky polls or the Guardian to assuage. 

Within the ruling Conservative party what is clearly missing now is any political guidance, we are left with post-Blair focus group leadership - what is right is what is popular. The media have undue influence, but worse, the policies of today can be changed tomorrow. Even worse still, the policies of today make no sense for tomorrow but have the votes and popularity today. It is a rum state of affairs, literally. 

Things therefore are a very bad short-term mess and the Chancellor has a dud hand to play with. All the more reason to start taking some serious long-term positions. Look how well George Osbourne did with his 'long-term economic plan', such that it was. When all around are driven mad, some clear sightedness will come in handy - which is why Rishi has to grab the chance that Boris is not capable of and make some hard nosed decisions this week. I am hoping they will be of a capitalist bent and not socialist dreaming.

The great energy awakening

I saw a SUN leader today which urged the government to cut the excessive green taxes that we face in the near future, apparently as Italy and Spain are already doing. 

At last perhaps, after many years of eco-loons parading their virtues for all to see, there maybe the slow realisation that the fantasies of the greenies have no bearing on reality. China, whence our Xmas presents are to be made, is currently suffering from extreme power shortages with factories closed. This will at least give a chance to catch-up on supply chain issues, but is both unlikely to reduce prices as scarcity increases and also, umm, involves them lobbing another few billion tons of coal into their power system. 

As such, our efforts of our own pale into insignificance. And the ultimate victim must come in the form of "Net Zero 2050."

This plan, indeed law thanks to a virtue signalling parliament, has no basis in reality whatsoever, the technologies to make it happen do not exist nor the political will to build the nuclear baseload we would need.

But the biggest piece in buy-in, to change peoples' lives so radically you would need their support. Yes lots of people emote about green issues but as we know, most still drive diesel cars. They expect someone else to do something. In this case, it will start to impact everyone from now on, which I personally think is a huge vote loser and so will come upon more stringent scrutiny in the future. 

Not sure this Cummings character has too much time for Boris?

 Seems a bit rum, guy gives you the top job to be the key adviser running the Country. Has your back when you make some screw ups, eventually boots you under pressure and now you act like the most petulant ex-partner ever revealing all the sordid details and likely making some up too. 

Not sure he would be someone I would employ, big brain yes, emotional intelligence, not so much. You just can't trust Dominic's these days!

Lockdown 2 - Lockdown's revenge

So that was all worth it then. According to the figures I saw yesterday from the Boffins we are in exactly the same place as early March. Back to square one, gone right down that snake to the beginning of the game. 

Which I have to say I find a little bit depressing if not unexpected. I also recall from March a chart which showed we would have repeated patterns of lockdowns until a vaccine was found, the virus mutated to a more mild form or herd immunity had built. 

So I fully expect this lockdown will drive the R<1 for a little bit, we will then be freed for Christmas which will start the spread again and so another lockdown, after a bit of dithering in Feb or March time. Hopefully by then, some sort of vaccine will be in the process of being rolled out and with the summer too, it maybe the worst is behind us then. 

In the meantime, somehow I have to control myself from the judgey environment this has created, as well as the mild physical threat. It seems to me plenty of people are ready to screech and report any minor misdemeanour (in their eyes), such as not wearing a mask in a field, meanwhile another section of crazies storms around without a mask shouting we are all lemmings or some such. What a time to be alive!

I'll get to a review of the economic impact of this later in the week, but it is not going to be pretty to say the least. Whilst I am quite an optimist on the virus being controlled, the economic damage we are taking makes me far more pessimistic. 

Weekend Read: Why I still can't get over Tony Blair

All these years later, we still see the Left blaming many of the problems of the UK on Margaret Thatcher. It does not really work so well now, but they have had an entire generation making-up stories to tell themselves and ignoring facts. 

However, I am beginning to feel sympathy for their plight. Not because they were right about anything, Thatcher remains the best Prime Minister since Churchill by some distance. 

No, I have sympathy because I feel the same way about Tony Blair. I was educating my kids the other day about why we have ended up in such a polarised policitcal situation in 2020 and I realised That it is basically entirely Blair's fault. I will try to be succint in explaining why. 

1) Winning the Middle class for Labour - Blair in the 1990's realised Labour needed middle class votes to win an election. To do this, he switched away from the unions and traditional Labour support and focused on first world problems. One such idea was to put more people through University, from around 20% of the population, up to 50%. He did this by making courses free and getting the state to pay. The Universities, always left-wing, were delighted beyond belief. But we did not see a rise in hard and useful STEM courses, no we saw a rise in media studies and psychology. 

As as result we now have very Left-Wing univerities and two generations inthe workforce with pointless and unneeded degrees. Of course, later on the Tories had to introduce tution fees as the cost of Labour's plans was too high a burden and it was hoped this might end the proliferation of Madonna Studies and Kite-Flying. Which it did, but only at the cost of making more generations angry at the Tories. 

It has also left a huge number of people feeling the world is not fair. University education was supposed to be their route to a nice middle-class life. But with the economy growing at normal rates, we now see lots of people over-quailfied for jobs and really their University tution fees were not worth it. They are angry people and also they have been indoctrinated into Left-Wing thinking at Uni and by their feeling of grievance. Man have a point, if you graduated with a psychology degree in 2009 your prospects were not good for your career. 

Not only this, often referrred to as Elite Overproduction, but future Labour leaders have continued their obsession with Middle Class issues - which has meant in the last decade an obsession with identity politics, green issues etc. This has led to the loss of the working class voters, abandoned by the Middle Class chasing Labour party, more of this later. 

2- EU & Immigration - Blair of course opened the door to Eastern European immigrants, hoping to get both new voters and a boosted economy. He also was passionate about the EU, signing up to treaties and handing back the rebates won by Thatcher. 

This enraged the working class and a huge section (around 40% of the Country, as we have since seen at every election) of people who had never wanted mass immigration and the change it brought about - whatever the supposed economic benefits. Amazingly, Blair came up with the most anti-working class strategy of any Government since the Victorian era - whilst leading the Labour party. 

What we have seen since his time then is the pressure rocket for a referendum, said referendum then won by the anti-EU people (now disdainfully called populists for pursuing policy which has a majority backing) and eventually the end of the red wall with Working class voters flocking to the Tories. 

3- Culture wars - These are more post-Blair but the two point above have created this situation, along with changes across the West and the rise of Chine economically and politically. We have a Middle Class steeped in a new kind of class hatred, that of identities and anti-patriotic who vote Labour and even some of the Upper Class, champagne socialists like Keir Starmer, join in, but only in the big cities. Blair was a key started in this by defining those opposed to mass immigration as racists.

Thus began the twisting of merging policy and morality opposition into the single venemous brew that we see today on the Left.

4- Economic disaster - Gordon Brown of course wrecked the economy which as left us right up the creek ever since and now Covid-19 has dropped on top of this. Blair was happy to ratchet state spending to try to salve middle class issues. He did not really care or understand much about economics, his focus was elections. Of course, when the 2008 crash came we were woefully ill-prepared and also a population had become hooked on middle class tax breaks and benefits, like child benefit for all, which it has proved almost impossible to row back from even over a decade later. 

Meanwhile everyone else in England votes Tory to avoid the lunacy of Corbyn and to make sure the EU is left and hopefully immigration brought back to a sustainable level. In the regions those disliking both Westminster rule ad Labour have found nationalist parties to vote for. (I could say devolution is point five, hastening the rise of the SNP and potential break-up of the UK - one success Cameron did have against the tidal flow caused by Blair)

But overall May and Cameron were only ever passengers on the torrent of change wrought by the above. Both tried to balance the anti-EU sentinement and remain sentiment (which we saw of course became an identity thing for the Left - hence FBPE on twitter and other such extremism). Both failed miserably and ended their terms in ignominy. 

So there you have it, blame Blair, so clever that he did not know what he was doing. 

How has the UK Government done re Covid-19?

Here are we, about 10 weeks into the depths of the crisis. It came very suddenly and took the whole of the West by surprise. East Asian countries, more used to China's lies and the SARS pandemic, were much better prepared overall.

With Lockdown weeks long now and the media going from one panic about not long enough to another about it being to long depending on what day it is, it is hard to judge what is going on.

The media are obsessed by narrative and story. They can whip up a storm about the danger of covid just as easily as downplaying it to a mild flu. I give the Labour party some credit here, they are manipulating this well with constant placemen and women able to go on about lack of PPE - following and feeding any negative narrative on the Government. Fine practice at the dark arts.

So how do we think they have done overall. We wont really know for a year or so when this horrid thing has swept around the world, but two months in is enough to make some statements -

A) Preparedness - the NHS has not been tested like Spain or Italy, the Nightingales were built but not needed. Overall, very creditable on this front. The lack of testing and PPE is a global issue for the most part but does show up some failure as does the miss of how important it was to protect care homes and care home staff. 6/10

B) Reaction Speed - Way too slow to close airports from key countries like Italy and Spain where we knew the infection was. This alone has led to a much bigger outbreak. On the other hand, they were much better with holding off on lockdown, knowing it would only last effectively for a few weeks - despite media madness at either end of it. 4/10

C) Medical Policy - By following SAGE the Government has both been senisble and given itself a get out of jail free card. The arguments about whether SAGE is right or not dont matter - literally know one knows better in the Country, it is just that answers are not easy. 8/10

D) Leadership - As the polls show, Boris is flying and Hancock and Sunak have been overall very assured. Raab did a good job standing in at a tough time. In comparison to the endless campaiging and whining from Labour, plus with a very hostile media to cope with, they have been excellent. 9/10

E) Economics - A generous furlough scheme has kept the Country in stasis for now. The scheme was delivered well too in short order. Other elements of the package are expensive but no one seems to care for now, the bill comes later. Hard to fault what has been done, but I fear extending furlough too long will be costly move and affect people too much. 8/10

They're fleeing already

So went Boris Johnson's first commons address, to much merriment and memes.

However, in these unsettling times, this is now also true of our UK utility companies. Even the BBC has had to pick up on what the Energy and Utility companies are up to.

Having viewed with some displeasure the Labour decision to nationalise their entire sector and not being entirely trusting of the goodwill that will be shown towards their shareholders, they have acted.

National Grid has chosen to open a holding company in the EU. No mistaking here that the EU will not allow such government theft as is planned by Labour so the Grid is hoping EU law will still trump UK law (which of course, under Labour it will, when they remain - odd how events work out).

SS&E have chosen Switzerland where there is an Energy law they think they can take to International Arbitration in Geneva now that they have a Swiss Holding company.

Of course, Labour have reacted with some nonsense about billionaires and evil offshore folk. All very serious as ever. 

Very sensible corporate planning by the Utilities though, much as companies nervous about Brexit have set-up already in the EU.

What it shows yet again is how hot air from Politicians have real world impacts. I have some sympathy with those saying our politics is no good when both sides lie. here is a good example of how real costs - that ultimately will be passed to consumers - are incurred by rash statement from politicians.

I just wish the Tory policies would make sense

It is so frustrating this election campaign:

- Labour have gone through the looking glass entirely, I thought 2017 was bad but 2019 is that on steroids. Now we have just pure crazy for a manifesto, nationalise everything, ban everything and not do Brexit either.

- The Lib Dems have discovered the modern proverb get woke. go broke. There are few votes for Swinson outside of Remainia, a small place to start with, as she lectures people on um, being men or other such transgressions.

- Which leaves the Tories way out in front with a simple promise (albeit soon to be broken) of doing Brexit and not being mad. However, they are not very Conservative. Over the weekend, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, weighed in to announce under the new immigration policy there would be a surcharge for the NHS. All well and good, but if people come here and have a job offer (a pre-requisite of the new immigration policy)  then they will already be paying tax, 20% of which pays for the NHS. Why should they pay twice? Conservatives amongst all parties should not be promoting such a terrible idea.

Overall the Tories are still coming out with poorly though out ideas, especially around brexit and immigration. Yes they are miles better than the Opposition but that is a very low bar, it is so disappointing to live in an age of such 'agile politics' where nothing is thought our properly.

Boris-Cummings in tactical nuclear strike on Remainia

Well, that has set the cat amongst the proverbial pigeons.


This morning the UK Government has decided, as it is quite within it legal rights to, to arrange a Queen's Speech for early October. The remainer PM May could not afford one of these for fear of a Vote of No Confidence, so there is in fact a desperate need for one to announce the Government's strategy.


Too clever by half though, as this has sent the remainers into another meltdown. Only yesterday they were lining up to create an alternative Parliament full of only remainers so that they could all meet and vigorously agree with one another on how horrid leavers are. Today though this plan is already in tatters. The main outcome of yesterday had been to admit they were not very united and instead had to work on Parliamentary legislation to undermine Brexit and the Government negotiation strategy. This now has only a few days in early September to work.


Boris-Cummings has put paid to this idea, perhaps. Their plan will be to halt parliament so they can negotiate a better deal with the EU that they can then bring back at the last moment and force a Parliamentary vote affirming it.


Alternatively, if the anti-Brexit MP's can manage it, they might now conjour up a vote of no confidence and therefore a General Election prior to October 31st. However, as I wrote some weeks ago, the timetable for that is very challenging. 2 weeks before parliament is dissolved, a five week election - so seven weeks minimum and the Vote of No Confidence can't be tabled until early September. I am sure the Remainers and EU will bend any rules they have too - but anyway as of today I fully expect a Tory-Brexit party victory as the remainers will be seen to be the ones forcing an election (remember how well that worked out for May in 2017).


So, lots more heat and little light to be generated in the next couple of weeks.

They are refusing to negotiate...with reality

So says Michael Gove yesterday. Boris's new team are really on a roll, sadly it is downhill to nowhere.


Apparently the EU wont negotiate  - but negotiate with what? They can hardly just drop the Backstop having died on a hill for it for 2 years. Politically, this will be very hard for them to do and I would guess prove impossible. It is the wrong choice of battlefield.


There are no other demands from the new UK Government, so there is indeed nothing to negotiate. How about a side discussion on moving to EFTA for a start as a part way move - something to give the EU their own political cover to make some moves?


Gove used to be smart, but Brexit Derangement Syndrome has claimed another victim.


But it is not just the Government who need to engage their brains a little more, the classic August summer story is that we are going to get a Government of National Unity led by Ken Clarke or Caroline Lucas. I have expected for a long time that the Remain majority in Parliament would find a way to revoke Article 50 but desperation grows strong now for the Remain MP's.


But this wont be the way, there are just not enough Tory and non-Corbynite Labour votes for a GNU to make this work - let alone the insane spectacle of Parliament over-ruling the Referendum and the commitments make by most Parties at the last 2 elections - much as it would be fun to watch there are too many dark downsides to this outcome.


In 2015, Margaret Beckett and others swiftly regretted allowing Corbyn to stand for Labour leader and thus destroying her own party. I wonder how many MP's are at home this summer regretting their cavalier attitude to May's deal?

From the dark side to the depths

Thank you to co-writer ND for keeping the blog going this past few weeks. CU has been busy with a career change which has resulted in needing to spend time focusing on a bit the day job of capitalism.


However, I return refreshed to see the Tories in true meltdown. Just yesterday the slightly strange Andrea Leadsom announced that she would drive No-Deal Brexit through by proroguing Parliament. This means to stop Parliament from meeting for a few months. Whilst constitutionally possible, it would be a national outrage to try this.


I mean, I know the Tories are not going to get much in the way of votes at the next General Election, but this stunt would completely ruin them. It says Conservatives on the tin, the electorate do not expect to get radical illiberalism instead.


Having said that, I have some sympathy with the thinking behind this position. Clearly the current parliament has tried and failed to pass any deal for Brexit and voted to avoid a no-deal Brexit; the circle cannot be squared. This way at least moves to try to end this impasse. However, in reality to do so without an election is nonsensical. An election is the obvious route if there is no way through Parliament - this is what the constitutional principles would suggest. To avoid an election would be an abomination and the next time there was one there would be a high price to pay indeed.


Also, though, Leadsom is helpfully signalling that the issue is indeed the Remain parliament and not the Tory party. Yes the Tories are split, but the failure of Labour or any other party to vote for anything deliverable is the real cause of the current mess. Sadly, this will be lost in the messaging.


In any event, the Tories are not going to be choosing Leadsom - it seems to me the choice will rapidly boil down to another remain-pretender in Jeremy Hunt or the unknowable quantity that is Boris Johnson.


I am not sure they will even make it as Prime Minister more than a few days if the DUP and Tory rebels vote against a motion of no confidence.


Tough times for the Tories, a Brexit party by-election win is not going to clam them down this week - it perhaps shows the path to their imminent destruction when there is a 2019 General Election.

How is May still there?

Gosh has the political discourse of this Country changed in this decade. It must be considered amongst the most radical with the 1970's, 1940's and 1920's in the last century.


Firstly, our latest example is today, where Prime Minister May has managed to make her unpalatable Withdrawal Agreement more unpalatable. She has the chance to offer Labour the Brexit they wanted in return for getting it through - but in reality they would not trust each other even with this offer.


So now her new deal has goodies for both sides - a possible referendum, possibly reneging on the Irish backstop. This was never going to work, you can't offer more to the two extremes at the same time without annoying both of them.


Her deal, which I will remind everyone who wants to listen was the best compromise ever likely to be available, is now going to garner even fewer votes than before. In fact, I am going to bet on it getting less than 200 in Parliament.


Yet, she has not yet resigned. her key platform and policy is in ruins and the Country's reputation and standing lies with it. Thatcher, Blair and Cameron all went for lesser reasons. People are admiring her tenacity but at this point it is just Brown like brutishness, hanging on for no good reason.


It is a truly through-the-looking-glass world that she does not see the light and go to the Palace. It is obvious to everyone that this method of Withdrawal will not work. The choice, unfortunately, is going to come down to WTO leave or Remain and we will get there by Referendum or General Election.


Secondly, the more crazy thing is the Brexit Party is going to win an election tomorrow with a single policy which is a stupid WTO based Brexit. I won't be voting for such a silly position when the Country needs unity at this time and not further, partisan, division. I can agree with some of the anti-politics rhetoric given the truly terrible performance of the Government and Parliament these past to two years. But it is not enough - the Brexit Party needs some positive policies as well as he anti-politics drive.


Finally, and most comically, is the rise and fall of Change UK. Celebrated by the FT and elites as the anti-dote to the anti-politics, they have simply flopped - Anzio style. No good has come of it and it shows again that the current set of Wesminster politicians are just not up to it - they are not even good at political campaigning which is their job.


In truth, though a general election might lead to place as hard as now, it is really needed. Then we can vote out every member of the current Parliament and start afresh.

UK Local elections give some hope in a dark time

In a time when the Country has the worst collective political leadership since we had mad kings on the throne, the local election results coming through offer a small glimmer of hope.


In the north of England, voters have finally begun to turn away from both Labour and the Tories. This is good news, both parties are led by incompetent and perhaps even malevolent cabals - not voting for either at the current time is good. Perhaps a message will be communicated that they should both radically change their approaches.


In addition, the independents have risen, across the Country lots of councils have fallen to groups of independent people, tired with the poor and partisan service from Labour or Tory and keen to take on responsibility at grass roots level. So far Independents have won 25% of the seats they have contested - a huge movement.

Sadly, the Lib Dems have done well as they return to their traditional role of the protest vote. In many places, there are only 3 candidates and so if you don't vote Labour or Tory then the Lib Dems get your protest vote as a sort of anti-vote. We will see if there are euro elections in a couple of weeks as to how people vote when there are some positive alternatives such as the Brexit party for of the CHUK group.


Still, the populace is at least reacting to the mess that is Westminster, hopefully next time out we can make sure they are all de-selected. That will be my take on it, every MP from the 2017 slate should be kicked out so we can start afresh, none to be spared after the worst Parliament in two centuries.

Extend and Pretend

This phrase was all the rage 10 years ago.


The banks had lent money that the borrowers could not pay back, if they foreclosed on all the bad loans, the banks themselves would go bust. So they extended the loans, accepted lower payments and generally waited where they could for companies to come back to health and be able to pay back their debts.


In the round it worked, of course RBS and others also took plenty to the cleaners to help them 'stay afloat', but many of the larger loans and groups were spared. As an example, the housebuilders were in real trouble. Taylor Wimpey's share price went as low as 5p! But the banks knew if they disrupted the house builders then the knock on to the rest of the industry would be unimaginable. Taylor Wimpey had its loans rolled over and recovered fully (in a sense, Wimpey was never in danger, its sales fell a bit, the issue was the lack of credit, not its business model or operations). This was a signal for the banks to 'extend and pretend' that whole sector.


Of course, over time the loans that could not be paid were called in, but we ended up for many years with a zombie economy of companies who could not pay their debts nor die off. This was a sub-optimal outcome, exacerbated by the over use of quantitative easing.


In other countries, things have gone less well. Deutsche Bank still has stuck to extending all loans and not clearing up its loan book, even today, 11 years after the crisis, the bank is a mess and the German Government is trying to figure out ways to get it to merge or other ways to keep it going. There are regular management changes as no one can figure out how to cure the illness with out killing the patient.


The above story has a alternate explanation for not postponing article 50 in the current UK Brexit mess. Postponing Article 50 is the political equivalent of Extend and Pretend, but the UK is Deutsche Bank not the UK or US banks. Extending won't fix anything at all, but continue to paralysis and stasis of the situation today. Whatever the idiots in Parliament decide to do, they need to make a decision as can-kicking now is the worst answer of all of them.

The joy of making politicians work for a living - more positives of Brexit

In 2017 the media and press really tried to remind the voters of the sheer awfulness of Jeremy Corbyn and his past. Little effect did it have as he hugely over-performed in the election. Voters wanted something new and different and were quite happy to listen to a siren song of free gifts for them from his Government. It proved a close call for Theresa May and in the end probably will be terminal for Brexit.


However, the power of Brexit has been strong over the holiday period. Even now, we can see May is aware that she is going to lose her vote. Twice this week she has phoned Merkel to see what can be done to try and improve her deal. At last, she is personally trying to bash heads together to get something workable.


In the same vein, Jeremy Corbyn has failed to push the government to a vote of no-confidence, refused to back a second referendum and maintains Labour will negotiate a better leave deal. This ruse, for it is no more, to allow Brexit and somehow keep remain Labour onside, is finally damaging his credibility with his deluded faithful.


Brexit is a big problem and the politicians are having to at last make hard choices instead of following the traditional European route of can-kicking. All in all, a good thing.