Berlusconi, Putin and following the money

With no irony in evidence**, Reuters reports as follows: 

Vladimir Putin called Italy's Silvio Berlusconi a dear friend and an outstanding politician in a tribute to the former prime minister who died on Monday aged 86. "For me, Silvio was a dear person, a true friend. I have always sincerely admired his wisdom, his ability to make balanced, far-sighted decisions even in the most difficult situations," Putin said in a message of condolence. Berlusconi will be remembered in Russia as a "consistent and principled supporter of strengthening friendly relations between our countries", he said.

Well, well.  Lots of fellow feeling in evidence there; (though "principled" seems a bit of a stretch).  Maybe a suggestion of some significant personal, errr, interests in common?  Perhaps Putin has lost a very dear friend indeed: in which case, our condolences.

There is some forensic analysis yet to see the light of day here, but I'm not sure you get much of that in Italy.  Still ... just how did Putin become many commentators' candidate for the wealthiest man in the world?

They must think he's a financial genius.

ND

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** Then again, the report does go on to note:  "Like former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Berlusconi cultivated close relations with Moscow during Putin's first years in the Kremlin from 2000 onwards."  What could Reuters possibly mean by mentioning that?

Give unto Caesar what is his.

What now for the larger than life former Prime Minister of Italy. After a terrible verdict on his sex party life style Silvio Berlusconi was found guilty of paying for sex with an under-age prostitute. Despite both her and his protestations that no sex ever took place he was sentenced to 7 years imprisonment and barred from public office for life. He was also found guilty of abusing the powers of his office by arranging for the police to set free the girl whilst she was under arrest. Many witnesses at the trial have been referred by the judge for possible perjury.{see HG}

So, that's the end of him.

Well, we doubt it. Silvio has survived worse than this. And the judgement is a lower court judgement. It can be successfully appealed almost indefinitely. And he is holding up one of the most rickety coalitions ever assembled in an Italian parliament. No one wants him to go today if it means elections tomorrow. Go later Silvio. In a few years time.

Much more serious for Berlusconi is the charge of tax evasion. Found guilty last year he was given a four {reduced to one} year jail sentence. Mr Berlusconi is on his last appeal.
He was also convicted of wire-tapping. In a case that makes Watergate look mild he was accused of having police who were tapping an opponents phone, release the tapes to the media. He was sentenced to a year in jail and his usual barring from public office.

And these are just the latest. The serious ones that involved Tessa Jowell's former {former? Wiki} } husband David Mills, over loans, bribes and perjury have expired under the statute of limitations.

Mr Berlusconi, as always, declares himself to be a victim of left wing forces seeking to discredit him. its a conspiracy.

***

When Julius Caesar wanted to come back to Rome in triumph after the Gallic Wars he had a problem. He had exceeded his authority.
 Well, a bit more than that. He had raised armies without sanction. Declared war without instruction. Invaded foreign lands. Crossed the Rhine to attack the barbarians in Germany, nowhere near his official province which was just across the Alps.  He declared war on tribe after Gallic tribe. Bribed other tribes with the loot stolen from the first. Captured so many slaves he depressed the market. Invaded Britain. Attacked Roman 'friend and ally' chieftains, caused the formerly warring tribes of Gaul to unite in a war against Rome and waged a ruthless, genocidal war of astonishing military brilliance that made him famous, adored, feared, loved, despised and supremely rich.

He had run up debts that he could never have paid in a 100 lifetimes on his climb to the high offices of Rome. The governorship of Gaul was his way to conquer and pillage back that colossal sum of money he owed. He had bribed and bought senators, Tribunes and Consuls to get to the ultimate top place. First man in Rome. At the end of his 10 years as governor he wanted to go home.

The senate refused. Caesar must disband his illegal armies, give up his offices { which gave him immunity from prosecution} and return to Rome to face trial.
The Senate wasn't offering much to Julius . A trial with disgrace, loss of titles, loss of assets, loss of status and exile or death. And they were a bit foolish to threaten a man who's exploits had been read with excitement daily in the Forum for decades. And a man with 10 seasoned, battle-hardened legions, populated by soldiers who's entire fortunes and futures depended solely on their commander, when they had none of their own.

Caesar, ever the charmer and diplomat schemer made numerous offers and suggestions. He didn't really want a  great Triumph or the accolades of the Senate. He didn't want to retain his armies as his own private fighting force as other had previously. He just wanted to be allowed to escape prosecution for his many crimes.
 And he could spin it well. Hadn't he expanded the Republic like never before? Secured the troublesome northern frontier for ever. Seen off the wild northern savages? Brought wagon after wagon of riches to the capital for all to share? He'd brought order from chaos and all for the benefit of the Senate. Wasn't he the richest man in the world?  If they could just see to forgetting about how he came to be where he was now and just .. enjoy the fruits of it all, then everyone would be winners. There was enough land, slaves and gold for all.

After the senate rejected all of Caesar's demands and compromises, including a standing down of all armies by everyone, he decided on war. He marched on Rome, won, was declared Dictator and ended the Roman Republic for ever.

So..Silvio?
If his options become narrower and his prospects slimmer might he decide that the time for dealing is over? Why not go straight to the mob? The Italian people have already experienced 'nearly change' only recently. He could offer 'actual change'.  Become a populist rabble rousing politician, speaking directly to the masses without fear of consequences. Offering the unthinkable. An end to Parliaments. A new constitution. New people's assemblies. A new Lira. A cancellation of all domestic debts. A new start. New homes taken from the elites. Palaces turned into Hospitals and schools. No more taxes for the young or old.
It would be child's play for him to bring down the current government.  And by making deals with the Grillo's and assorted anarchy factions , deals they could accept because Silvio would no longer be trying to maintain the status quo, but to break it, he could light a fire.

Might it not just be better for the Italian government and judiciary to let the appeals drag on?
Like Caesar he doesn't want to bring down the very structures he has spent so long and so much on climbing up. But like Caesar, if the alternative is prosecution and banishment.. well then...?