QE Works!

So some years after the Uk and US did QE, the Eurozone has tried the same. And to no ones surprise it has had the same effect.

Along with the currency crisis, the launch of QE has seen the Euro plummet in value versus the dollar. To the point at which is is not below 1.08 to the dollar and so veyr near to parity - with the direction of travel suggesting that parity maybe reached. With the Pound hitting 1.40 to the Euro, my summer holiday to France is looking that bit cheaper too.

In the main, this is good news for Europe, a lower currency will help Europe be more competitive against Asian and American economies and help it climb out of its long slump.
Also QE has pushed down bond rates, even for Greece, averting a return of the Debt crisis of 2011, for now.

However, there are dark clouds, Germany benefits the most as it exports the most - A D-Mark would surely have parity with a Pound Sterling by now. Thus the Southern European nations cannot export internally in the Eurozone at good rates and this is a big challenge to the Eurozone periphery.

Also, it suggests the long-term 'austerity' (also known as sanity and being able to sack people for underperforming) is unlikely to be followed through. Of course too, if you are a saver in Europe then this trend is not your friend.

Overall though, the best thing to say is its about time...

EU really mad; Official

There is a lot of discussion about weirdo's and madness on the internet today, so perhaps I can join in....


The US Dollar fell from its six month highs today (phew, fingers crossed for me as I am going to NYC in a couple of weeks), but get this - here is why:

"The U.S. dollar tumbled from six-month peaks against the euro on Wednesday, as comments by a European Central bank official rekindled speculation about an interest rate increase in the euro zone to quell persistent inflation pressure."

Just for fun, go read Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in today's Telegrpah discussing the economic situation across Europe. Collapse everywhere, even Germany hurt by the strong currency, and the idea is to raise interest rates?

This 'inflation' we are suffering will end in tears for us all. As oil has dropped 20% in a month and money supply has dried up it is not so hard to predict a sharp drop in inflation - it is a lagging indicator in any event.

If the EU raise interest rates it will utterly wreck Spain, Denmark, the Baltics and Italy. Why would they do this unless they wanted to ruin the eurozone. They can't possibly want to do this, so the 'EU Official' who said this must be mad.

UPDATE: From a Bank of England MPC member today in the Guardian...

Blanchflower described the BoE's forecast earlier this month of the economy standing still over the next year as "wishful thinking" and said things could be easily a lot worse.

"We are going to see much more dramatic drops in output," Blanchflower said. "The way to get out of it is to act, by interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus and other things to try help people who are hurt through this."

"Sitting by doing nothing is not going to get us out of this and hoping that a knight in shining armour will come and lift us out of this is optimistic in the extreme."

And he said that an expected boost to exports from a weaker pound was unlikely to prove the "great rescuer" of the economy.