Question Time comp.

Dimbleby is in Exeter,{lab} with Jeremy Browne MP,{Lib Dem up and coming at the F&CO.}
Louise Bagshawe MP,{the chick lit girl. She broke the Super-injunction on HIGNFY, but it was edited out. Shame.}
Hilary Benn MP,{Lab and been in government at Foreign aid and Green issues. I can't remember a word he's ever said. Something about badgers & ..erm..?}
Sir Christopher Meyer {back again. If you want a clue when he was asked which country had influence over America he replied Israel.}
and Charlotte Harris {I'm certain but isn't she's one of the lawyers seeking out phone hacking at NOTW.}
BQ thinks
1. Ash cloud and Ryanair
2. Irish O'bama. Is there a special relationship anymore?
3. Railway privatisation. Where is that in the manifesto?
4. NHS and Clegg trying to distance himself from his own signature.
5. Super-injunctions. Ryan Giggs and should the internet be policed.

Leaderboard Update

Measured - 8.5
GSD - 6

Miss S-J - 5
Mark Wadsworth -5

Botogol -4.5
Bill Quango MP -4.5
Appointmetotheboard - 4.5
Malcolm Tucker -4
Hatfield Girl -4

Miss CD -3.5
Nick Drew -3.5
Dick the Prick -3
Timbo614 - 3

Philipa -2.5
Amy -2.5
Blue Eyes -2.5
Andrew - 2

Budgie -1
City Unslicker -1

Green Investment Bank - With Nuclear Overtones

So after much huffing, puffing and posturing the Green Investment Bank ** is limbering up into existence. We can't really complain because all parties promised this in their respective 2010 manifestos, probably the only thing they agreed upon, that and the notion that evil is a jolly bad thing.

Its ability to borrow has been prudently circumscribed: from 2015, "subject to public sector net debt falling as a percentage of GDP" ... next year, sometime, never. Entertainingly for those who enjoy watching green apoplexy, Dr Vince has allowed that it might be used to provide dosh for flood defences (good), and nukes (bad: let EDF raise its own).

The nuclear angle is interesting. The likely chairman of the GIB (when it gets over various EC hurdles) will be Sir Adrian Montague, who has chaired British Energy and knows a thing or two about manipulating gullible governments into stumping up gigantic but unacknowledged de facto subsidies for nukes. It's an easy trick when you can put HMG's AAA rating against very long-term liabilities, as Gordon PFI Brown knew only too well.

How popular will the GIB be ? "A number of companies have already approached the Department of Business to ask for funding, Mr Cable said." Really ? You amaze us, Vince.

ND

** PS: I don't recommend you download the BIS doc on this, it seems to be some sort of rogue pdf that caused my machine to seize up on each of my 3 attempts

IMF: Rebellion of the BRIC's

Interesting to see a rare grouping of the BRIC's in attacking the IMF and wanting to seize the crown. When one considers the history of the IMF, with its poor policies in the 80's that wrecked many a country and its perception (see picture) of being a Western tool for control of developing counties, this should be no surprise. The IMF is a tool of western imperialism in the minds of many of those on the receiving end of its policies.

One problem with this is that overall, the view expressed above is wrong. The IMF exists to save countries and often the worst that can be said about it is that in acting so late in the day, the problems have already overtaken he ability of a Country to cope - leading to default and mass austerity for the population. The IMF is an ambulance; the patient is already seriously wounded on arrival and emergency treatment is hazardous without guarantees pf success.

Now, though is a new century and with the Western powers themselves excruciatingly weak, it is a good time to strike. However, I doubt very much even if a non-European head was appointed that it would make much difference. The glamour of being an international civil servant and the mindset that goes with it will soon affect any incumbent (after all, in order to apply you need to be from this cadre already) - and it will be back to business as usual.

The worry must be for the Europeans who are trying to get the IMF to hep the Euro without agreeing fair terms - however, this is going to fail anyway as the European debt crisis spirals over the next few months and years.

Ash cloud strikes again

Yesterday it was the wrong kind of Ash, today it is the right kind to ground flights after all. Luckily no trael for me so I can be grounded with everyone else here no problems; I bet President Obama is dreading getting stuck here though.

Are there any good uses for ash - could it be mana from heaven?

Salmond: Scottish Ogre In Town

Haven't added to the powerpoint®-based DigiGallery of late; but the yellow-green scottish monster is in town seeking money, & all the whingeing disturbed the muse ...

ND

Greece and Financial Crisis 2.0

2008 seems like a long time ago. That Summer the world sleepwalked into the Financial Crisis that culminated in Lehmans going bust and the world entering something akin to a depression.

Now, that was said to be a once in 60 years type catastrophe.

However, the solution was to print some easy money, reduce interest rates and shift much of the debt problem onto Sovereign balance sheets rather than private.

the price of this has been higher taxes, sclerotic growth in the West and the potential for a new crisis.

All year, the Greek bailout/restructure/default has been discussed. Those in the Euro will not countenance it despite it being economically the only viable solution.

Now we are at a point where this is not being ignored any more by the markets. The FTSE is down year to date, risk stocks in AIM and other areas are off 30-40%. Even the commodity bull run is rapidly shuddering to a halt.

The key question left is that can a small, broke country like Greece really be responsible for another 2008 style crash. over this summer will we see a build to another big market and economic crash? It is very hard to tell but by my reading the line is finely balanced at the moment. Clearly big players are taking money off the table in anticipation of volatility. However they did this in 2009 too and promptly missed a huge QE inspired rally - the market movers are not always right.

Perhaps there is a chance that a Greek crisis ( with Portugal and Ireland to follow) is already priced in? Only hindsight will tell us, but there is not much else to worry about from a macro economic view this next few months.

'Death Derivatives': Now THAT'S Capitalism@Work

Technically speaking, a financial derivative, e.g. a contract-for-
difference, can be settled on any independently-determined numerical variable agreed upon by the parties. Usually something like the price of oil of course; but it could be the number of pages in Saturday's copy of the FT, or the number of burgers sold at a particular branch of Macdonalds in a given week. A swap, as they say, is an exchange of cashflow between consenting adults.

Here's a great new idea: death derivatives. Nope, not Warren Buffett's 'financial weapons of mass destruction', but contracts settled on actuarial data relating to life expectancy - have a read of this. There are loads of companies that have major financial exposure to that particular variable, so in principle this might work really well.

From the very first systematic record-keeping on mortality rates in England in the 1660's, actuarial data were meant to be useful. I can't imagine why anyone considers there would be some kind of moral scruple about this. It's just a cracking idea.

Might even be a better hedge for Bad News than gold ...

ND

Linked in Loony tunes

What a debut for Linked in up nearly 100% at one point on its NY debut. Eat that Glencore.

So at least we now know who the new stock market darlings are to replace Mining and Resoucres; its Social Media.

On this performance, Facebook is going to hit those extreme valuations that I laughed so hard at. Linked in isnow rated at 25x earnings compared to Google's 6x.

Yikes, a nice bubble pumper up by the algorytms, funny money and poor retail investors piling in becuase there is no interest in the bank.

This ends badly of course, as LinkedIn has no real way to earn money, I use it myself but would never pay for its services, its handy but inessential. Twitter et al have all had this revenue problem for a long time and not resolved it.

Still, anyone know any UK companies listed or going to list tht can tap this crazy mania!?

Question Time quiz

The relaunch of the new season.

David Dimbleby is joined in a special programme from Wormwood Scrubs Prison by

Ken Clarke,{oh dear..oh dear, oh dear.}
Jack Straw,{former Labour Home Sec and shadow Justice minister.Currently polishing his left boot ready to administer a kicking.}
Melanie Phillips { Oh no..not her.. .}
and Shami Chakrabarti {achieving the award for most appearances on a QT panel in a single season.} Don't know who the Lib Dem will be. Huhne? Laws? Give them a chance to check out the facilities..?

This weeks clues are provided by Budgie.
Budgie said...
1. Huhne: Thatcher was driving, Huhne innocent because he is green?
2. Old lady (not Thatcher) visits horses on island off English coast - is this a record?
3. Rail tickets to be more expensive, service worse, more strikes, Thatcher privatisation to blame?
4. IMF: SK 'haunted by Thatcher' Gordon Brown to take over?
5. Rapegate: Ken 'haunted by Thatcher' - Huhne to take over Justice portfolio?

Update
The leaders

GSD - 4
Measured - 3.5

Miss S-J - 3
Botogol -3
Philipa -2.5
Amy -2.5
Hatfield Girl -2.5
Mark Wadsworth -2
Blue Eyes -2
Bill Quango MP -2
Dick the Prick -2
Budgie -1
City Unslicker -1
Miss CD -1
Malcolm Tucker -1
Appointmetotheboard - 1
Nick Drew -1
Timbo614 - 1
+
Lilith - 1 {as she had great qs last week. Where is she?}

Question Time trailer.

Question Time trailer.

If you want to guess early, then guess now.

Mothercare

Mothercare announced a closure of nearly a third of its stores.

Its not quite as dramatic as the headline suggests but they will still be shedding stores and staff.
110 high street stores are to close by March 2013. But then the leases on 40% of its High Street Stores are due for renewal by 2013.
Mothercare are preferring the out of town shed units, and have done for quite a while. A big, single storey space, with ample parking outside suits ther format better than a cramped, multi floor unit, far from the paying car parks.

Mothercare are in talks with other chains who might like their good sized high street locations, so its not a JJB type desperate situation. Its a managed transition.

But not good news for Mary Portas, Mary Queen of Shops, the TV retail guru who is to carry out a government-backed review aimed at halting the "decline of the High Street" in England.

Well,if you want some advice Mary, you know where we are.

Oh, and just to repeat C@W advice that we've been saying for a few years now.

1.Look at the overseas operations.
Wednesday's preliminary results from Mothercare underlined the extent to which the company is performing better overseas than in its traditional home market. Underlying profits in the UK slumped to £11.1m in the last year, down from £36.1m Underlying profits overseas, though, jumped by 18.5% to £27.5m.
2. Internet sales.
Mothercare's exposure to the UK high street will be reduced with the focus placed on out-of-town Parenting Centres and online sales.

Huhne at the Centre of Two Storms

Who'd have thought: C@W favourite Crapper Huhne triumphing over Boy Osborne, Vince-the-Cable and other assorted forces of darkness, to reclaim the grassy green sunlit uplands for the Coalition and, in so doing, prove that the LibDems aren't the waste of space the nation resoundingly believes them to be. Clegg has long favoured discharging the dense green smoke to obscure his uselessness: earlier this year it was the laughable Carbon Plan, and now it is the even more far-fetched Carbon Budget.

Such a pity that ...

(a) he wants us to pay for his flights of fancy through ruinous electricity bills; so ...

(b) ... Osborne has engineered a very necessary get-out clause (which should be invoked at the first opportunity: I could suggest a few, George - straight out of the Coalition agreement)

(c) Huhne lui-meme may not survive to enjoy his 'triumph'

What with EDF limbering up for a massive new PR offensive, manufacturing industry belatedly gearing up to oppose his 'reforms', not to mention the lovely Vicky Pryce and her thoughtful intervention ... it looks like our Christopher and his plans will be centre-stage for a while still to come. Greek tragedy or what ? Couldn't happen to a nicer chap.

ND

UK CPI Inflation on track with rise to 4.5%

The chart above is the February 2011 Bank of England 'Fan' chart of UK inflation expectations. As can be seen the central case is for a rapid fall inflation. Last month indeed inflation did retreat a bit, but figures out this morning show CPI inflation powering back to 4.5% (RPI fell slightly to 5.2%).

Luckily for the Bank this is just about in the tolerance zone for the ridiculous chart they publish above (if you look it at any one point i only 'predicts' inflation to within a 4% band).

For how long though will the UK carry on in its path of debt inflation. Clearly the Bank of England has not a clue, if you look back at these charts to a year ago they were expecting inflation to be down to under 2% by now. It was nonsense then and is nonsense now, inflation is going nowhere but higher unless the commodity collapse continues and fiscal stimulus is withdrawn worldwide.

The UK Government will be happy though, the national debt is being inflated away along with its citizens wealth. It is a sad wight to see a Government betray its own people in this way, but then with so many against the 'cuts' in the UK perhaps this is the only palatable way of delivering them. If you are a saver or have any valuables at all though you really by now should be fully stocked with non-UK assets, preferably not even Sterling denominated assets - Why?

Because either this will work and that will be the only way you can maintain your relative real wealth, or this still does not work and we have another financial crisis that ends in a massive domestic wage spiral and 1970's style 20% inflation.

Strauss-Kahn's perfect timing

Now, mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn is not someon you will find Capitalists defending in general. The communist Frenchman has a long hisotry of economic and political misjudgements. However, his arrest on Friday in New York is quite something.

At a crucial moment in the negotiations over further European bailout the key lead is gone. the IMF have bent over to help the EU, even though the EU has held tight onto its prinicples of keeping the Euro and avoiding default. In part, this has been thanks to the head of the IMF backing this unorthodox (read silly) strategy.

So to have the one of the lead actors incapacitated at such a key moment is intriguing. of course Strauss-Kahn was also going to stand for the French Presidency so he will have many enemies across the world - which does not mean that in the end, he is his own worst enemy after all.

His temporary replacement is an American with a background of working for JP Morgan. He is sure to have different views, although perhaps the needs of diplomacy mean that he won't be able to obviously change track on IMF policy too quickly; however, charges for Stauss-Kahn will mean Lipsky will get a more long-term shot at the job, certainly until new appointments in the new year.

Timing is everything and this timing sure seems 'odd', conspiracy theorists will have a field day but the key will be to see if there is any change to the terms of the Greek bailout - the more changes there are, the more suspicious I will become.

Quote of the Day: EDF On Maneouvres

EDF "will begin a large-scale push in the second half of the year to highlight the benefits of the power source and the growing need for it ... a three-pronged approach ...

The final prong will centre on the economic viability of nuclear and EDF's belief that public subsidies should not form part of the debate."

Gotta love should not form part of the debate. Fantastic choice of words !

We'll give you some debate Monsieur Rivaz, never fear.

ND

Are we there yet?

It seems at last that blogger is back...sorry for the interruption in service, I can forsee that it will happen again.

Likely this is stage two of the google/facebook war that is sweeping the world and we are just one of the innocent pieces of collateral damage that is going to become more frequent as the hostilities increase.

I have not done much today and was sad to miss the rally against debt - but I had too many other commitments. However I did my bit by sending Mrs CU to London today with a limited cash amount and no credit cards- fight debt everywhere you see it I say!

Question Time

David Dimbleby is joined in
Sheffield{ now there's a clue}
by Vince Cable, {wise sage of the Liberal party who has looked increasingly foolish in government. Almost abstained over his own tuition fees bill. Has been much better since jamming his socks into his mouth.}
David Blunkett, {Former Labour home Sec ,£331 million wasted on I.D.cards. Another £2.5 just to scrap them. Makes the AV referendum costs look good I suppose.Might be a Laws question. Blunkett resigned in disgrace. Twice. }
Anna Soubry, {interesting wiki for a Tory newbie. Is for cannabis legalisation. And tabled a bill about anonymity in arrests. Interesting.}
James O'Brien { I assume it's the left leaning LBC presenter, who is sharper than a box of bayonets. Has a lot to say, mostly worth hearing.}
and Max Mosley {FIA ex-president, noted son of a fascist, enjoys the company of ladies... And lost a court case recently. Should be a laughable figure but always comes over very dignified}

Plenty of clues in there.

BQ says.
1. Should Liberal Democrats collapse the coalition to save themselves, or similar.
2. Super-injunction,privacy law discussion.
3. How did Salmond do so well? Is independence likely?
4. Economic forcasts down, inflation up. What the hell is going on Vince?
5. Should TV be allowed to screen live drug taking and dying grandads.

Playing with the Crouch End to Embankment no switching rules. And the Botogol 0.5 point for the correct number of questions asked.
Winner gets to appoint the replacement for Mr Huhne, where Twitter is reporting he has only a few days left.

UPDATE

Well, blogger.com's system failure left us with a grand relaunch equivalent to a false start grand national and the Dome opening night.

So. all bets are off. Race cancelled, heavy frost, flooded pitch, leaves on the snow..etc.
and we shall kick off again next week.
{Just as well really. Give Dimby a chance to calm down and stop telling the guests "Oh not this again! We're sick of talking about UK debt.."

Shale Gas impact on Energy markets?

Mr Drew has noted the interesting  Nick Grealy before on this blog. he writes at No Hot Air. I attended an interesting conference where he spoke this morning.

By way of background, grealy believes in climate change but also sees the huge potential for Shale Gas.

The US is the only country that is really into extracting shale gas. It is more complex than normal extraction as you need chemicals and lots of water to breakdown the rock formations which hold the gas.

However, he posited that it is so successful it he US that it has held down gas prices and caused the de-link between WTI and Brent crude.

More amazingly he described a recent report that identified 5.6 trillion TCF identified resources across the world:
UK 20TCF
France 180 TCF
Poland 187 TCF
Algeria 213 TCF
Argentina 774 TCF
China 1275 TCF

To put that into perspective, worldwide demand is only 50-60 TCF per year, with Europe at 20.

On this basis it really is a game changer and when the technology is applied to shale oil it will have a similar impact on global oil resources - Grealy is as you would imagine a lot less concerned than many about security of supply and peak oil.

All good so far, but the really interesting piece to me was the impact of Geo politics, outside the US everyone is against Shale:
Environmental concerns, hugely out of proportion, are a cover for lots of reasons not to be happy. Centrica and gazprom don't want to see cheap prices for their good, nuclear proponents hate it, OPEC hates it, Russia sees it revenues under threat, UK energy policy would have to change so our Government hate it, Greenpeace hate it.

In France (80% nukes and 10% hydro) all the political parties are against shale exploitation and there is a motion to ban extraction; maybe this will lead Europe down this path?

In any event the US is soon going to become a large exporter of Shale NG and this is great news fro consumers. Grealy went to far as to suggest with shale oil people might be paid to take excess gas away ($4 boe) to get at the oil ($100 boe).

Anyway, great listening and an interesting insight into a global changing development. San Leon are a small aim explorer in Poland who are looking to develop shale and I will research them a bit further. In the long-term the likes of BG and Centrica in the UK are looking at difficult times unless the lobby Government hard enough to stop this non-subsidised cheap energy from being extracted.

So, is he right about all this?

Question Time Qualifying

Capitalists@Work, Question Time Quiz returns for a new season tomorrow. For the many, many people who say "I don't understand this? Is the answer four?" here is an explanation.

BBC Television have run a current affairs and political panel program called Question Time, on the flagship BBC1 channel, at 10pm on a Thursday, for the last 40 years. The panel consists of politicians,journalists,artists, comedians,union leaders and various assorted vested interests spokespersons.

The BBC stoutly maintains impartiality in that the questions are chosen by the audience and that they have no input into what will be asked. And this is true. Up to a point.
The editor chooses the final questions, and gets to invite whomever they like onto the panel and choose the location, so in fact they have editorial control.

The object of the quiz is to guess the questions that the audience will ask, that will be allowed by the editor, to be given to the panel.

For the many readers who don't own a telly, or wish to watch the program, actually viewing it isn't a requirement. Simply consider what the 4 or 5 stories of the week are and enter those into the comments. That's all there is. Pick the most talked about topics of the week.
However to play at the high level of a Ms S-J, Malcolm Tucker or a Botogol
a little more cunning is required.

Some hints for victory.

• The panel are listed. Often the people are picked because they will hold violently opposing views. If they could they would have Ed Balls and George Osborne on the panel, with a question about budgets.
• This is an entertainment television show dressed up as a serious discussion program. The editor will often, but not always, pick the most delicious story of the week. So this week, for example, a question on another Greek handout is unlikely, whilst a Max Mosely hooker hand-job, is a possibility.
• The location matters. If the panel is in Glasgow, the questions will be from a Glasgow audience, and reflect Glasgow politics and news.
• The BBC week runs from Thursday to Thursday, which often catches many regulars out. If you think back, last Thursday's very big news has yet to be discussed.
• Final hint. Its a BBC program. They do tend to ask BBC type questions.

Points are awarded for correct answers, uniqueness, humour and correct number of questions asked. {ranges from 3 -7 with an average of 4.5}
And also,sometimes, for no real reason.

So, now is your chance to enter. Brand new competition!

Enter your guesses here, or on the main quiz tomorrow evening.
Good luck.

What now for the coalition?

One year on.

Plenty of opinion pieces on how well the coalition has done ranging from very well to evil. Listening to LBC's Yougov forum Its as good as any, even if it is extremely tribal and partisan. Outcome, Tories are doing better than expected, Labour a bit worse, Liberals, catastrophically badly. 60% in favour of the coalition continuing.

Nothing very remarkable really. The coalition could have had a much easier ride if the Liberals had sacrificed AV and electoral reform for tuition fees in the agreement. Coming on top of the expenses scandal with MP's integrity being at a new low, the 'Lying Democrats' made a fatal mistake. Liberals have lost all their hard won popularity for being 'the nice party.'
And lost it without much gain.

So what now?

BQ says..

1. Stop the NHS reform.
The government is reforming Health, Defence, Welfare, Education and Home. That's really the entire government. Arts and culture and F&CO are very small beer.
Mrs T was very careful to not fight too many battles at once. Tony Blair didn't like to have any battles, and wasted his first term, but had approval ratings that couldn't be overcome even two elections later, despite all his later problems. Now we know Dave wants to achieve everything day one, so that he can relax on the Sabbath, but the coalition really is cutting too fast, if not too far.
There is a golden opportunity to ditch this here. The Liberals need a massive win. The public don't understand why reform is necessary, the doctors aren't on side and the Tories promised no top down reform of the NHS... So dump it, or do a Blair and allow it to be so watered down its meanigless, and let the Lib Dems take a great slice of credit for 'defeating privatisation of the health service.'

2. The Economy.
That's all that matters. If no improvement then the cuts will have to be ever deeper, and last longer. There has to be growth. Tax reductions would be great, but that's impossible right now so there has to be more business initiatives. I can't recall what the Cable Guy's big ideas are? But unless the government can get investment for existing and new bushiness we are reliant on the banks making a profit, which they are reluctant to do.
Rates reductions, match funding grants for the smallest business, Vat holiday. A one year freeze on employer N.I payments for new starters, .. The old Labour government used to produce three or four of this sort of very expensive sound-bite chasing idea a week. The coalition should at least have SOME of them. A new business secretary wouldn't hurt either.

3. Sort the message.
The government is in the envious position of being able to do popular things that don't cost much. It should do them. A bit of distraction to keep the cuts, cuts, cuts, rolling news away.
Labour readily made non-pronouncements on nothing, repeated promises already made, re announced old ideas as if they were new. In short. It Spun like a gyroscope 24/7.
I'm not advocating a return to the transparent spin of the desperate Brown era, more a much better focused handling of the media to get them to talk about other things apart from cuts.
EU bailouts. Talk tough on how much, how long, how likely. Foreign trucks to have UK road fund licence. Divorce settlements and child access. Tackle the endless tube strikes. Ban them! {Public sector is already on strike. Might as well tackle something that's already burning and needs attention} The government doesn't have to DO anything on these, or similar initiatives, {though it should.} It just needs to make enquiries and get the papers interested.

4. The junior partner
Help them out, but don't worry too much. The liberals have nowhere to go. They can pretend to flounce off if they like, but that road leads to oblivion. Their slim chance of avoiding annihilation is to hang on until 2015, carving out a role for themselves and trying to undo the self inflicted wounds. Liberals only have themselves to blame for the mess they are in. Their position is so poor because they were caught lying on a huge scale. 'We pledge not to...erm..oh..we've done it.'
They can pretend to themselves that if they had formed their own government then they would never have increased Vat or fees or made any cuts but the reality is they stood on a fantasy manifesto, never expecting to achieve any power,and would have had the voter backlash with a Labour alliance too. Labour would have put up Vat and would have increased student fees.

So don't worry too much about placating the Liberals. They've had their Casablanca conference moment. From now on its Yalta, and they're only on the top table out of courtesy.