How do we live with the virus over the winter?

This Covid-2019 is so hard to manage. After a six months it does not seem that much the Government do makes a lot of difference to managing the outbreak. Despite our breathless media, the same is true in some other countries like France and Spain. 

Heavy handed lockdowns have worked in March and April to reduce in the UK and other Countries, but only at a huge economic cost and also a big cost to wider health outcomes. Excess deaths is the real measure of how badly the epidemic is affecting a country and the UK in Europe (likely in part due to being honest about deaths) is the worst affected. This covers not just covid deaths, but also the more 'normal' killers like cancer and heart disease - both exacerbated by the refusal to treat people in hospital by the Heath Service and Government. 

But we are where we are and there are no silver bullets here to stop the pandemic short of a vaccine which at best must still be 6 months from any kind of roll-out that would have a real world impact. 

However, the Government to me has not got things badly wrong. In March they were unfairly criticised for taking the time to consider how long a lockdown could work. Here we are in October, willfully ignoring the evidence. Matt Hancock I saw yesterday basically threatening the population that increases in local covid cases will see the closure again of cancer treatments. To me, this is totally unacceptable - a punishment on the weak created by the (immune) strong and backed by the Government. It reflects the desperation of the Government to control a bored and frustrated population. 

If I had lost my job, the idea I am going to sit at home and starve is for the birds. Who cares about a virus that you are 99% likely to recover from as compared to losing your lifestyle, home and possibly family?  No chance. 

With the lack of compliance and new evidence showing lockdowns are no longer effective we need a change in how we deal with the virus and one guided by economics and wider health concerns than only covid. 

I would go for:

- End lockdowns of all types. 

- Rigorously enforce social distancing, wearing masks and basic hygiene

- Open all businesses and schools as long as they can create a socially distanced environment. Properly monitor and inspect establishments, with big fines for non-compliance. 

Only in an extreme case of say over 100,000 cases per day would be have a national lockdown and even then only for a couple of weeks to take the edge off the cases. 

The biggest challenge is around shielding, over 70's should be offered voluntary shielding by the Government for a long period, up to a year from now. This is the vulnerable group but they are also adults, if they want to take risks they should be allowed to do so, but if they want to shield they should be supported in that. 

I am no doctor, but I can see psychologically the impact of the pandemic and economically we are having a nightmare - something needs to change and the Government's science only led approach is not working in the wider interest. 

Is the FTSE going to tank now?

Friday and Monday have seen over 4% wiped off the value of the FTSE 100. That is a nice reminder of how things were back in Sept-October last year.

With this fall, there is much commentary in the finanical press about the end of the bear market rally and the next big dip.

What I think is less noticed is that the FTSE100 is still 8% down year to date, and that is after a year where it fell 30%. This is not exactly a great time for investors. If the FTSE falls now it is likely to be by a few more percent, not decimation.

As much as the comment now is that the rally is overdone, it is possible that the opposite is true too.

Having said that, I am preparing stop losses and positions generally for a renewed collapse in September/October of this year. We will need to see sustained improvements in many of the economic figures being published to say that we really have hit a bottom. Counter to this though, I expect inflation to kick-in next year and in an inflationary environment the stock market will be your friend

Sunday Business Round Up - 16 September

Busy week for the beginning of the end of the working year. Not helped personally by having my bag stolen in the gym yesterday! A short round-up as I have a few calls to make this morning...

Northern Rock sale -It has only taken 2 days for this business to have to put itself up for sale. So when a bigger one goes pop, maybe give them a week?

Who is next? - the Lefties have some thoughts on this...

Meanwhile in the US - banks are asked to be more straightforward in their accounting to help prevent the crisis getting worse. All very well, but without pushing the boundaries where are their profits coming from?

Housing in the UK - Housing boom over, HIPS, interest rate rises and sub-prime crisis have finally slayed the dragon? Too early perhaps to say Hooray at last?

Good news somewhere in the UK - John Lewis, the staff owned retailer, makes huge profits for the year.

Bids on the Edge - Barclay's looks doomed, whilst Sainssbury's might be left at the altar.

Metronet fall out - Tube upgrade and maintenance due to be delayed over cost wrangling.

HSBC vultures - Are the management under threat from their investors over strategy? I doubt it, the bank is still very solid, despite the crisis.

More Gym mergers - the over-capacity issues are still plaguing this industry. I have always found it odd that this business grew up as quickly as our obesity crisis...

Branson over the moon - He will step up to the Google challenge of being the first to send a private space craft to the moon. Don't bet against this one with Virgin Galactic about to get off the ground.