OK then, customs union it ain't! (see below). At the start of this whole ridiculous story I suggested that sometimes, just sometimes, the frontal assault pressed home with relentless determination can perhaps be appropriate. But only if you have the numbers.
Since November May has attempted, and seems still to be attempting, a war of attrition - without the numbers. Nothing could better illustrate her strategic blindness, her complete and utter lack of imagination. And here we are, with a 'snap GE' apparently being mulled.
Surely there's no super-majority for that?? (Do the DUP wish to treat with Corbyn? Does any Tory MP reckon their chances in a May-fronted election? How many Labour MPs would do anything to stop Corbyn being gifted the opportunity?)
That Cabinet room will be fairly foetid at the end of 5 hours. How many of them will stick it out to the end? Will she still have a Chancellor? Will physical punches be thrown, actual wrists be slashed?
Can we hope someone is secretly recording it for posterity? Iannucci, we thought you were exaggerating.
ND
Showing posts with label Customs Union. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Customs Union. Show all posts
Tuesday, 2 April 2019
Monday, 1 April 2019
So - Customs Union It Is
Are we closing in on something sensible? A short while ago our old friend Mark Wadsworth mused on what was so very wrong with a Customs Union: and the same thought had crossed my mind as soon as it became clear that Liam Fox was well placed in the ranks of the utterly incompetent - a werritable w****r, in fact. The chances of getting favourable trade deals now with any nation that truly counts? Zippo.
Customs Union. Can almost have a ring to it. Like the Hanseatic League; the romance of trade. ECJ jurisdiction on trade issues? So what. There must surely be a Commons majority for that now.**
ND
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** yes yes, we understand the bastards in Brussels will squeeze out a few more drops in the process. And that it may be a trick. And that Corbyn will claim it was all his idea. All I'm saying is: (a) with May gone, and Fox too with any luck, perhaps a half-decent negotiating team can be assembled - shouldn't be beyond the wit of man in a city like London. And (b) irrespective of whatever would have been mine or anyone else's first choice, that boat sailed in 2016 with the Hinkley fiasco and there must surely be a Commons majority for that now
Customs Union. Can almost have a ring to it. Like the Hanseatic League; the romance of trade. ECJ jurisdiction on trade issues? So what. There must surely be a Commons majority for that now.**
ND
_____________
** yes yes, we understand the bastards in Brussels will squeeze out a few more drops in the process. And that it may be a trick. And that Corbyn will claim it was all his idea. All I'm saying is: (a) with May gone, and Fox too with any luck, perhaps a half-decent negotiating team can be assembled - shouldn't be beyond the wit of man in a city like London. And (b) irrespective of whatever would have been mine or anyone else's first choice, that boat sailed in 2016 with the Hinkley fiasco and there must surely be a Commons majority for that now
Thursday, 3 May 2018
Custom-made Capitulation
There is really no end to Brexit and the stress it is causing our Government.
The EU are playing crazy hardball, the new Irish leader, Leo Varadkar is egging them on to do so. All in all, it appears the EU is very confident in its strategy that pushing the UK towards 'hard' Brexit will result in the Government falling and Brexit being averted somehow.
Now, honestly, this has come as a bit of surprise to many Brexiteers and soft remainers like the Prime Minister. They thought the EU would ultimately be rational and reasonable in its demands and they may have been correct to start with. But as time has gone on and the Remain capture of the Media has only increased, the EU has become more hardline, seeing this as a game it can win outright.
The Customs Union is a classic one, for all the talk of trade there are about 5 solutions such as Swizterland, Norway, Luxembourg, New Technology or new Free Trade agreement that could solve it if both sides chose to. None of these are acceptable to the EU for the UK, even though they have been implemented elsehwhere in the Union currently - this is pure political grandstanding by the EU and at all times the blame is laid on the UK. The anti-British hysteria in Brussls appears from afar not so different to that of Moscow.
Equally, for the UK Government, they are too terrified to say that the real reason they can't agree the EU terms are the four freedoms and so lack of control over immigration.
This is the Irish dilemma, solve the created 'Irish Crisis' (it is created, we had no border with eIreland bar for security before the EU, it is the EU, see link above, suddenly deciding it is the arbiter of the Good Friday Agreement when in reality of course it was the yanks pulling IRA funding) and with it allow free movement. Or stop free movement but only at the cost of an economy punishing hard brexit.
It is very tough and I note, that as much as there is far more good work being done behind closed doors than ever being said in public, that the EU constantly say the UK has no answers when in reality they just reject every offer made and have none of their own bar splitting the UK or taking the Remain option.
Weirdly in the current scenario, Corbyn is a good thing, as a useless pro-Brexit populist it means the EU has to be consider what it is wishing for - my personal worry is it is wishing for a very realpolitick outcome. A hard brexit then a hard left Government to lay waste the UK and bring opportunity to France and Germany instead.
The EU are playing crazy hardball, the new Irish leader, Leo Varadkar is egging them on to do so. All in all, it appears the EU is very confident in its strategy that pushing the UK towards 'hard' Brexit will result in the Government falling and Brexit being averted somehow.
Now, honestly, this has come as a bit of surprise to many Brexiteers and soft remainers like the Prime Minister. They thought the EU would ultimately be rational and reasonable in its demands and they may have been correct to start with. But as time has gone on and the Remain capture of the Media has only increased, the EU has become more hardline, seeing this as a game it can win outright.
The Customs Union is a classic one, for all the talk of trade there are about 5 solutions such as Swizterland, Norway, Luxembourg, New Technology or new Free Trade agreement that could solve it if both sides chose to. None of these are acceptable to the EU for the UK, even though they have been implemented elsehwhere in the Union currently - this is pure political grandstanding by the EU and at all times the blame is laid on the UK. The anti-British hysteria in Brussls appears from afar not so different to that of Moscow.
Equally, for the UK Government, they are too terrified to say that the real reason they can't agree the EU terms are the four freedoms and so lack of control over immigration.
This is the Irish dilemma, solve the created 'Irish Crisis' (it is created, we had no border with eIreland bar for security before the EU, it is the EU, see link above, suddenly deciding it is the arbiter of the Good Friday Agreement when in reality of course it was the yanks pulling IRA funding) and with it allow free movement. Or stop free movement but only at the cost of an economy punishing hard brexit.
It is very tough and I note, that as much as there is far more good work being done behind closed doors than ever being said in public, that the EU constantly say the UK has no answers when in reality they just reject every offer made and have none of their own bar splitting the UK or taking the Remain option.
Weirdly in the current scenario, Corbyn is a good thing, as a useless pro-Brexit populist it means the EU has to be consider what it is wishing for - my personal worry is it is wishing for a very realpolitick outcome. A hard brexit then a hard left Government to lay waste the UK and bring opportunity to France and Germany instead.
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