Labour to nationalise itself make the Labour party 'free to all'

As the election gets tight for Labour they have been busily offering 'free' goodies to all potential voters in a desperate calculated bid to try and get nearer to 40% of the vote and deny the Tories a majority in Government.

Hot off the phone line from the Millbank Kremlin to me comes the news that the last and best retail offer Labour has saved for the end of the election Campaign. The Labour party intends to rally make it for the may and not the jew few.

In an announcement to be made at Roker Park in Sunderland, Jeremy Corbyn will announce that the Labour party will be nationalised. Everyone will automatically become a member of the labour party from birth. A free signed picture of Jeremy Corbyn will accompany every NHS baby pack and to start school all kids will receive a Diane Abbot signed calculator.

Labour believe that this fantastic offer, fully paid for by a travel tax on the Gnomes of Zurich, will be the clincher. With everyone a member of labour then everyone can vote for Labour at the election. I understand Richard Burgon is the brains behind this cunning plan and argued for it voicerferously over a recent meeting of the shadow cabinet in Jeremy's kitchen.

As a Capitalist I can only marvel at the logic and audacity of the Labour party during this election. their sensational and well-thought through political plays have amazed me.

What will be more amazing is if they really do get more than 1 in 3 of the votes next week...

Nervous Times for the Comrades

I think we know what's happening here.  A camp within the Labour manifesto-drafting team always wanted to include the WASPI pension giveaway.  McDonnell overruled it as being too costly.  The compromise was to keep it up their sleeves in case the other unicorn-promises weren't doing the trick.

Come Saturday's daily war committee, there's panic in all eyes: it ain't working!  Tories pulling ahead in the polls.  OK, says McDonnell, f**k it, we'll unleash the Big One.  So WASPI it is.

But given the disbelief with which the rest of the giveaways have been greeted, is doubling down going to work the trick?  Hard to tell.  WASPI gets some very heated middle-aged ladies very heated indeed.  I'm almost surprised every party didn't offer something on this, much like they all promised 'something' for Equitable Life victims (such as, errr, myself).

It all reminds me of an episode in Blair's 1997 successful campaign.  Curiously and needlessly, halfway through he got nervous: even John Major seemed to be doing OK.  Whadawe do now, Alastair?  Campbell handed him the doomsday script: Blair put on his ashen face for the cameras, drew himself up to his full height, gripped the lecturn with whitening knuckles, paused at length for maximum effect, set his lower lip a-trembling, and pronounced the Big Lie:  "The Tories ... are going to scrap the state pension!"  

We may see a replay of one like that in the next couple of weeks, if the polls don't look any better for Corbs.  Campbell will be preparing a choice of scripts even as I write.

ND

UPDATE:  I have just found this - a bullet-list of the entire Labour manifesto.  There (appox) 570 pledges.  Overcooked?  Looks like it.

Labour Makes Its Move

This isn't going to be a full analysis of today's Labour manifesto, just the bits that interest me most, and whether they tell us anything useful.  Let's start with the most revealing.

Defence

Notwithstanding we can all read between the lines, they've gone for maximum respectability vis-à-vis the casual reader hoping not to find a knock-dead reason for spurning Corbyn.  Support for renewing Trident (sic); 2%-of-GDP minimum expenditure; "The primary duty of government is to guarantee the security of people in the UK"; "We will maintain our commitment to NATO"; "The UK defence industry is world-leading"; etc etc.   

In short: if they've succeeded with their bribes elsewhere in the document, they're hoping this nose-peg job of their own is enough to avoid a million patriotic vetoes in marginal constituencies.

There's also a continuation here of the workerist strand that runs throughout: the defence industry is lauded for providing skilled jobs; to be encouraged as such.  There's many a Tory who'd salute that particular flag. 

You can bet there's an entire closed-session briefing for dyed-in-the-wool Generation-Wuss Trots that starts: "don't worry about the Defence section, it's for older-generation comrades who are suffering from false consciousness; we don't mean a word of it".  So far, so thoroughly, power-seekingly pragmatic.

Energy

If anybody's paying attention, this is a real bugger's muddle.  On the one hand they are hoping to bask in the greenwash they've splattered over everything in sight (though they've realised committing to zero-carbon 2030 is ludicrous, much as that will disappoint some).  Then there's the crazy distraction they propose to bring upon themselves by nationalising not only the wires and pipes (which we've known about for months) but now also the energy supply business, but handing it over to local authorities.  This guarantees (a) a decade in the courts, and (b) power-failures and general chaos.  Or, more likely, (c) a big U-turn in due course.

But overhanging it all is that workerist theme. 

A thriving steel industry will be vital to the Green Industrial Revolution. Labour will support our steel through public procurement, taking action on industrial energy prices, exempting new capital from business rates, investing in R&D, building three new steel recycling plants and upgrading existing production sites. We will ensure that new technologies aren’t just invented here, but are engineered, manufactured and exported from here. We will put British innovation at the heart of our procurement to support local sourcing and reshoring, so that every investment we make strengthens our manufacturing and engineering sectors and supply chains and creates hundreds of thousands of good, unionised jobs here at home. We will use the power of public procurement to strengthen local jobs and supply chains and will require all companies bidding for public contracts to recognise trade unions, pay suppliers on time and demonstrate equalities best practice... we will ensure the UK’s automotive sector isn’t left behind ... by investing in three new gigafactories and four metal reprocessing plants. By supporting UK-made electrical steel we will ensure robust support for an end to end UK supply chain. We’ll also take on the global plastics crisis by investing in a new plastics remanufacturing industry creating thousands of jobs ...

Square that with yer zero-carbon future!  And I think we know which one would get priority, in the party that currently supports a new coal mine in Cumbria.  It has a name, by the way: the "Just Transition".  That'll be used to cover just about anything.

It'd take a bit of squaring with EU rules, as well.  And they wonder whether Corbyn & McDonnell want In or Out!

Overall

Received Wisdom solemnly reminds UK politicians of two sobering manifesto data-points.  First is Labour's very own Longest Suicide-Note in History of 1983; and more recently Mrs May's equally ill-judged 2017 version.  Both suffered from being unable to resist sticking down everything they'd ever dreamed of - and highly counterproductive they were.

Has Labour committed the same mistake again?  The franchise for immigrants and 16-year olds is being smuggled through with all the rest of the bribes, and an adroit Tory counter-campaign should be able to make that alone fatal to Corbyn's cause.  (I did say 'adroit'.)  Is this really the election for a compendium of everything the Left has ever dreamed of?   On the Beeb at 1 o'clock, Norman Smith's only point was, what makes them think this lot can be financed?  Not the reaction they were probably hoping for.

Do they really just want to see it all written down in black and white, so that they can go to their graves saying "if we'd won in 2019, it would have been great"?  And "no-one will ever accuse us of not thinking big: we emptied the tank".

We don't have long to wait.

ND

UK Fracking Saga: Here Endeth the First Chapter

And so it came to pass that Boris the Populist, observing the extreme unpopularity of fracking in many northern parliamentary constituencies of a Conservative bent, decided to call an end to the experiment.  

This, I believe, is part of what the sage Lynton Crosby calls scraping the barnacles off the boat before an election, in stark contrast to the imbecile May who danced into the 2017 gig allowing people to think she was about to offer (inter alia) a free vote on foxhunting.  FFS

And who's to say Boris is wrong?  One can of course always work up a righteous lather over points of principle and U-turns etc: but does it really matter?   No.  The moment has passed.  It had become abundantly evident that, despite the epic quantities of natural gas the frackies reckon they've identified within these shores, it would have been a very long time indeed - if ever - before it could be turned into a windfall for the economy.  The primary beneficiaries thus far have been PR companies and the serried ranks of Plods on overtime.  

Maybe things could have been done differently and better, but they weren't.  Meanwhile there's a global glut of gas anyway, which will continue unless the Chinese accelerate their usage beyond what Russia can easily supply from entirely new eastern gasfields.  The Chinese don't show much sign of this (nor India, for that matter), despite a great deal of wishful thinking in all the great gas producing centres around the globe.  

But if the glut dries up a bit, there are any number of faraway places with equally epic resources of shale gas that will be much easier to develop than hereabouts - because there are no people in the vicinity to object; and/or no democracy.  Algeria springs quickly to mind.

And, of course, if things change utterly, well, that UK shale gas ain't going anywhere ...

Here endeth the UK shale gas saga, for the next short while at least.

ND

The real election numbers not being discussed

Here is the formal UK data chart for the share of government spending 5 years ago  - total spending  £743 Billion



And here is the same chart for 2019 - total spending £821 billion ( a 10%  gross increase)




As we can see, as he numbers are so large little really changes. The big and obvious change is that Healthcare spend has gone for 17% of Government spend to 20%. Pensions have edged up a little and this offsets welfare that is down a little. Education spend remains the same over the 5 years.

The long term trend is for healthcare, pensions and welfare to increase, since 2010 they have eaten up another 5% of annual government spend. Meanwhile Education has dropped from 13% to 11% and been held there.

For an election campaign, I would have zero sympathy with the usual Labour NHS stories. The real question is how as a Country will we ever stop the ongoing march of government spending on Healthcare (hint; we need more additional private provision). I have more sympathy with the teachers as school spending has been held down and also welfare spend has had a tiny squeeze - but remains a big spend item considering the economy has generated near full employment.

It is always interesting that no parties ever frame their offer in practical terms about what they would do, how they would grow or shrink this pie and also how they would make changes to the allocations.

1st cut 2019 election view

Very busy in the Cpaitalist economy at the moment, which somewhat undermines the various politico's wailing about how badly the Country is doing economically.

Anyway this is reall a short post to start a useful discussion thread. This is not a house view, but my own. That is the only way to vote in the upcoming election is to vote against the incumbent wherever you are.

Clearly, on a cost-benefit analysis it is hard to make a case for any of the major parties outwith the Tories. But I can see Lib Dems as having an interesting position bar their lunacy on Brexit.

However, the colloective behaviour of the last set of Parliamentatarians is simply beyond the bounds of acceptability. Traiturous, lying and faking their way for nearly 3 years to achieve sweet nothing.

As a result of that none of them deserve anything other than their poltiical P45. Collectively they were awful and in a private company the whole management would be removed and we should do the same on a national level. Given the abject performance, the idea propogated in the press of late that we are losing good and experienced people just shows the media only take their line from said people themseleves. The only experience they have is in rank incompetence.

So however you vote, wherever you live in the UK, my advice is to try and get the incumbent out so that we can start again and try to renew the Country.

I was only away a week..

Sorry for the lack of posts on my part this past week or two and now I am back in Blighty at last...boy what a mess you have made.


The legal ruling from the Supreme court today is simply stupendous. That it is unanimous is the most interesting part. After all, they have declared the Prime Minister has acted unlawfully in an area where there is no law. The court could easily have ruled that this matter was a matter for politicians. Indeed, in the not too distant past this is exactly what would have happened.


However, this is today and today he Supreme Court has made a big land grab to become the ultimate arbiter in the Country, above the Queen. In many ways, though it will be a while before people twig it, this is the end of the Monarchy entirely. No longer does the Queen serve a constitutional role at all, her advisers have not power nor authority. Yes, we have long known that Parliament is supreme, but now with the Courts too above the legislature why have a head of state other than the Prime Minister? The Court is exercising the powers of the Monarchy from now on. Why waste money on the Monarchy anymore.


For Boris, well the law is the law and he tried a reckless gamble and this has not paid off. Although unexpected, he has shot the bolt here. Really, he should resign as PM, go to the Queen and suggest there is no Government that can be formed. The only person in Parliament who could potentially lead a Government must be John Bercow, oh what a joyous moment that would be. If Boris clings on now it will be a terrible look, he should lead the Tories to the opposition benches and get his election that way. A Bercow rainbow Government will add about 1% to the Tory polling every day it sits.


Brexit Derangement Syndrome, phew, it sure is a nasty disease.

One step forward, three back...but to where?

What an amazing week! I can honestly say the fireworks have exceeded my expectations of sheer insanity on the part of what passes for our political elite (and media).


No wonder they are afraid of an election, by any measure we should replace 100% of MP's at the next election. None deserve to keep their jobs, if it was a corporate business unit , the unit would be shut down and abandoned with a big of a write-off to the value of the group.


However, Boris has taken a bad turn after his initial success of the Prorogation, he of course would have known the parliament and rebels were going to beat him. But to me it seems he thought Corbyn would go for an election. Instead in a really bizarre move, the opposition are content to oppose when there is no Government.


For his own side, I am less convinced of the aggression against his own MP's. He expected to lose a few MP's but through cack-handed management has now lost over 20. meaning he can't win any votes in Parliament again - after all, they are not going to vote for an election knowing that it ends their careers as they can no longer be Conservative candidates.


For Remainia, things appear to be going well. I am not so sure here either. Nobody I speak to is happy with the can-kicking and far more people were up for Boris sorting it one way or t'other. Remainia would do well to revoke Article 50 pre any election as that would make people think about having to 're-start' Brexit rather than just continue it. The idea that somehow they are being noble in hobbling the Government, demanding and extension and refusing an election is errant.


So I see both sides very badly holed at the moment, enter Farage perhaps? Predictions at the moment seem to age at lightspeed so are futile.

Boris-Cummings in tactical nuclear strike on Remainia

Well, that has set the cat amongst the proverbial pigeons.


This morning the UK Government has decided, as it is quite within it legal rights to, to arrange a Queen's Speech for early October. The remainer PM May could not afford one of these for fear of a Vote of No Confidence, so there is in fact a desperate need for one to announce the Government's strategy.


Too clever by half though, as this has sent the remainers into another meltdown. Only yesterday they were lining up to create an alternative Parliament full of only remainers so that they could all meet and vigorously agree with one another on how horrid leavers are. Today though this plan is already in tatters. The main outcome of yesterday had been to admit they were not very united and instead had to work on Parliamentary legislation to undermine Brexit and the Government negotiation strategy. This now has only a few days in early September to work.


Boris-Cummings has put paid to this idea, perhaps. Their plan will be to halt parliament so they can negotiate a better deal with the EU that they can then bring back at the last moment and force a Parliamentary vote affirming it.


Alternatively, if the anti-Brexit MP's can manage it, they might now conjour up a vote of no confidence and therefore a General Election prior to October 31st. However, as I wrote some weeks ago, the timetable for that is very challenging. 2 weeks before parliament is dissolved, a five week election - so seven weeks minimum and the Vote of No Confidence can't be tabled until early September. I am sure the Remainers and EU will bend any rules they have too - but anyway as of today I fully expect a Tory-Brexit party victory as the remainers will be seen to be the ones forcing an election (remember how well that worked out for May in 2017).


So, lots more heat and little light to be generated in the next couple of weeks.