'Consumer led recovery dangerous' fail for Labour

Another plank of Labour's economic claims is falling apart. Not only is "too far, too fast" a distant, dull memory, but now the chant of the 'wrong sort' of recovery is unravelling too. Post-Christmas, many of the major stores have not done well and were reduced to offering steep discounts to get product out of the door. Consumer spending was reined in.

By contrast, out today with news of expansion and good growth, is, err, Rolls Royce. That Housing Bubble talk is next in line too, as construction picks up and housebuilding will move to reach record levels (which it needs to if prices are to be controlled).

It does not bode well for very strong growth this year as a whole, much as I expect, more of the same from last year at best. But HM Opposition is going to be in a right mess on its economic policy and positioning if it can't analyses what is going on rather than wishing that its fantasies come true (see triple dip recession, RIP).

Alistair Darling to resign on 21st July

There are some assumptions behind the statement in the title. Some more likely than others:

- in the first place, revised GDP figures out today for Q1 2009 show the economy lost 2.4% of GDP in a single quarter. The worst performance since 1958. This is 20% worse than the first estimate released on 21st May 2009.

- As such, then next release by the ONS of GDP stats will be on 21st July or thereabouts for Q2. There is a general feeling that Q2 has not been as bad as Q1 by a long way. However, there has still been significant economic contraction.

- This means that any fall over 1.1% will mean GDP has already fallen by 3.5% this year. In the first two quarters. This is the fall predicted by Darling for the whole of 2009 - let alone just the start.

- So, IF Darling had any honour, he would resign, as the budget he has signed off on is quite clearly blow to pieces within 6 months and therefore the UK will need to quickly redress its spending position in line with the new lower GDP.

Will he do it though? I don't see the Government having a good record on falling on points of honour, or even dishonour. Instead perhaps they will come up with some more lies about how growth will magically appear in the second half of the year to balance out the falls in GDP.

This Government is well to course to bequeath to its successor the worst fiscal mess in the history of the Great Britain; although I have yet to see their plans for Danegeld (in the modern world, perhaps this is the IMF?)

What a disaster. Live !

Poor Gordon, trying to conduct a reshuffle, being undermined by his new appointments quitting as he speaks. Gordon has denied that he ever wanted to move the chancellor from his post. Brown is using his ability to tell and retell a lie over and over while making it sound like the truth to great effect. He even managed to make the appointments of Dawn Primalo and Glynis Kinnock sound like the bringing in of positive assets to his government, instead of the scrapings at the bottom of a very empty barrel.

Here we have had a sweepstake on future cabinet appointments this week. I thought I was on a loser with my poor picks, but now I'm not so sure.

- Gary Neville
- Adam West
- Katie Price
- Diversity
- Sir Ranulph Fiennes

{ if you want to play yourselves its easy. Pick a cabinet post, say minister for local government, and then go to google serchbox. close your eyes and bash the keyboard three times. The first coherent name out is your choice. Try it.Best entries into the comments for final adjudication
It seemed a far-fetched way to run a country last week, but today..its as good as any other method in use.}

Labour Resignation Quiz

Who is the man in the story Dennis MacShane is referring to and when is the incident?

"Mr MacShane voiced the hope that the government would quickly recover from
the resignation, in contrast to the last government, which was severely
damaged by John Major's dithering over troublesome ministers. "Compared to
the Tory resignation sagas, when ministers hung on for days and days, the
Prime Minister has reacted quickly and cleanly."