Starting around 2015 or a little earlier, various local authorities started to get interested in becoming energy suppliers on a "social", Not-for-Profit basis: how hard could it be? After all: cheap council capital; subsidised offices; no dividends to shell out; "no bonuses" to pay (well, no bonuses for the directors: you can't get experienced commercial energy staff without a bonus scheme) - we should be able to undercut the Wicked Big Six all the time! Easy.
The bollocks it is. And most of the local authorities that looked into it properly, and took proper advice, realised their error and quietly withdrew without spending too much to make it embarrassing. These included Sadiq Khan's London, and Nicola Sturgeon's Scotland (amazingly enough). Credit where credit's due.
But two councils wouldn't be stopped. They were Nottingham, which set up Robin Hood Energy, and Bristol (the imaginatively named Bristol Energy). Both were doomed from the start; though in zombie mode and each with access to council-taxpayers' money for a protracted series of bail-outs, they have both staved off the day of reckoning until now. Yes, you can suspend the laws of gravity for just so long as you are willing to through cash at it.
Bristol at least tried to do it somewhat professionally and organically, with some basic financial disciplines in place, and a target of being profitable within 3 years. The current mayor, an engaging moderate leftie (for whom I have some regard, actually) inherited it in 2016 and should have pulled the plug there & then. But hubris plus taxpayers' money somehow carried it all through until the cash calls and the write-offs became just too big. He called time a few weeks ago, and (as David Morris, one of our BTL regulars spotted) a buyer has just been found for the portfolio of business customers (for a pitifully small amount) - see comments under Monday's post. Based on the ugly fate of Cooperative Energy last year, it's my guess Bristol will actually have to pay someone to take on the rest of the obligations and the residential portfolio. Aside from the inevitable dissembling and secrecy from the mayor's office in the last few months of this doomed enterprise, Bristol wasn't conducted outrageously; just badly misconceived.
By contrast, Robin Hood Energy is a shocker. An outright leftie vanity project that boasted of having Corbyn as a customer, and of being the vanguard of a new wave of municipal socialism, Robin Hood was to be a NfP - a sure guarantor of being a stonking loss-maker, which it is. The prime movers were doctrinaire Momentumites; and if I tell you the Chairman of the Board of Directors (a councillor) was also Chair of the Audit Committee charged with monitoring the company on behalf of the council, you won't be at all surprised. Their USP was offering their services on a "white label" basis to a dozen other leftie councils (a ring of other pig-ignorant Momentumites - but at least with the nous to avoid becoming suppliers themselves, hahah!) the length and breadth of England. With this rapidly expanding but massively loss-making buiness model, Robin Hood has been bleeding the council tax-payers of Nottingham white (robbing the, errrr, poor to pay the, errr...). The statutory auditors have now called a halt, to much wailing and gnashing of teeth: it'll all get "sold off" quite soon (i.e., they'll pay someone to take it away). It's pretty comical - if you don't live in Nottingham, that is.
In the meantime ... a truly bizarre thing happened late last year. A very iffy, loss-making small Glaswegian supplier, Together Energy, somehow conned Warrington Council into paying the £18m for a half-stake in the company! (plus more millions in loans). What they hoped to gain from this is anyone's guess: and their Due Diligence must have been utterly perfunctory and conducted by a rather dull form of invertebrate life. It's so crazy, many would wonder if it was bent - except I think "crazy" is in fact the explanation. Not only are the books very odd indeed; but by mid 2019 the writing was on the wall for Bristol and Nottingham in large bold characters and no uncertain terms.
Here's the thing. Rebecca Long-Bailey, queen of the left, published a strategy still greatly lauded on the left, for nationalising all of energy and putting it into the hands of local authorities and indeed parish councils and 'local communities of at least 100 homes', all to be heavily unionised etc (we've written about this before). With these stonking examples of municipal idiocy, secrecy, incompetence and gross failure in even the simpler side of energy (being a supplier is a lot easier than running a distribution network, with a lot less at stake), WTF is she thinking? That's a serious question.
It ought to be a sober lesson for all: but we know it won't be.
ND
Showing posts with label Momentum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Momentum. Show all posts
Tuesday, 11 August 2020
Saturday, 6 June 2020
Weekend: Capitalising on BLM Catastrophe
The BLM situation, clearly febrile, is ripe for 'entrepreneurship': watch out for -
For every Zuckerberg and Gates and their homegrown empires, there's a Green, an Ecclestone and a Deripaska. They spotted the distressed or undervalued asset, they capitalised on it, invested it, looted it.
The world of power-politics is full of entrepreneurs on the lookout, too. And we've all been mulling over a distress scenario - BLM copycat riots, for want of a better term - which might be coming to the boil right now, and which must look like the plummest of plum opportunities for several people, particularly on the Left, if they can stop it degenerating into another 2011. If they can get ahead of it at all, that is ...
Now let's immediately acknowledge that sometimes these violent prospects evaporate. A good example is Grenfell. That seemed pretty febrile at the time: but to my surprise, it settled fairly quickly into a deep and luxuriant patch of traditional English long grass, its insurgency potential slipping away. Nor did Les Gilets Jaunes ever really gained hardcore Political traction (we'll come to XR later, because it's important). Yes, Britain's armchair revolutionaries - white, Oxbridge, dilettante - are indeed wedded to their equally luxuriant armchairs. They still hanker after being the officer-class, though, directing the street-masses via social media from their châteaux HQs. And there's no obvious sign of organic leadership within the demonstrators just yet.
The question, then, is: IF rioting starts here ... who's likely to attempt what?
The Players
In many such circumstances someone on the government side might try to make a name for themselves as the hard man. It could be argued Cameron had a crack at this back in 2011, along with his DPP, one Kier Starmer ... But - Priti Patel? Doesn't look terribly plausible. Boris? Errr, no.
No, we're looking for Grabber to emerge from the other side. If Corbyn's regime was still in place, I'd have expected it to be McDonnell, a genuine revolutionary on paper: but again, none of them really ran with Grenfell.
Is there anyone who can front for the putative rioters, in the sense of declaring themselves to be the leader, particularly for "negotiating" purposes? This would be quite difficult for any established politician when (innocent) people, including coppers and fire-fighters, start getting hurt. It's possible one of the new intake of firebrand Labour MPs might give it a crack, (nothing to lose, see what happens). Clearly enough there are some unpleasant people in those ranks, but personally I don't know enough about them to nominate any. Of the established urban MPs: David 'Broadwater' Lammy? No revolutionary, he: rather, in recent times a man of measured statements and nuanced views. Diane Abbbottt? Hmm.
I think we may also rule out Starmer. For several reasons he doesn't look like fronting up for violence: it's categorically not in his makeup (respectable lawyer, not revolutionary; and a prosecutor to boot). He'll want to capitalise alright - by staying exactly where he is, risking nothing, in order to have the plum fall in his lap all the more certainly in 2025. He might be wrong about that, of course, but it'll be his strategy - statesmanlike mediator; distant and lofty proscriber of vague & worthy medicaments. He just needs to watch his back for the serious impatience within the People's Party that has already been angrily directed his way on several occasions already.
Outside Parliament (which is of course where the really fidgety Momentum types feel the action should be) ... Stormzy? Owen Jones? Someone from rather more, errr, mainstream pop-culture - Gary Lineker? Who can tell; the hour doth sometimes bringeth forward the man: but can anyone seriously spot a Martin Luther King or a Nelson Mandela out there in Park Lane?
Someone who can be absolutely guaranteed to be seen prominently flitting about with both the hare and the hounds is of course Sadiq Khan. His ambition to be seen to be in command of the "BAME vote" is never far below the surface; but his desire for world-stage metro respectability is pretty enormous, too - him with his world-class police force and armoured Range Rover. Plus, of course, he's ultra-transactional (and very pragmatic, as every mayor ends up being): everything's up for negotiation - and he's busting to get back at HMG for the recent TfL settlement he was forced to swallow. Like Starmer though, what he really wants is a Good-War rep for future purposes, not a high-risk position in the streets. (And if there's half a chance of a "responsible", Parliamentary outcome - see XR below - Khan, as so often, will be deeply frustrated at his own current lack of a Parliamentary platform, and will try hard to inveigle himself onto the platform.)
All in all, for want of obvious outright, authoritative leadership willing to get down and dirty, Gerry Adams style, the Left may encounter some challenges in re-purposing riots into something more tangibly Political. It's tantalising for them, because (a) they don't get many opportunities and are currently smarting from GE2019; (b) in strictly Marxist terms a section of the urban BAME community might actually be in a technically revolutionary frame of mind: nothing to lose, any change whatsoever must be beneficial to them. But the same theory would also suggest that an ethnic minority doth not a revolution make - nor indeed anything short of the entire Working Class.
What will be the demands?
All this is by way of ruminating on an age-old issue: in large-scale conflict, it suits both sides to know who speaks for - and can deliver - the other side. Even calling for unconditional capitulation generally pre-supposes some effective leadership on the losing side that can present themselves for signing the instrument of surrender, and reliably thereafter give the dismal command to stand down. If it's more balanced, then actual negotiations need to be conducted, for which an authoritative counterparty is required (e.g. Good Friday Agreement).
There's something else that in due course needs to be tied down. What, concretely, will the Left be demanding? If they don't know, it all descends into mere anarchy and they lose their moment.
Sometimes there is tactical merit in making ridiculous ("impossibilist") demands to ensure failure and dissatisfaction, a strategem often associated with Trotsky. But in June 2020, as we've said, there is likely to be a strong desire on the Left to leverage the rare moment to obtain something immediately tangible on the political front (as well as, errr, electrical goods and fashionable clothing). "A better deal for BAME people" or similar doesn't really advance their cause in quite the immediate ways they'd like. Black History Month to be extended to a full year? Compulsory diversity training for the entire population? A special BAME minimum wage? Immediate rehousing for everyone living in a tower block?
The problem is clear. For a political demand to be successful, the gain it seeks must be tangibly, irreversably deliverable. This is a real challenge for sudden uprisings, when the said gain must be promptly deliverable, too - before the rain starts and everyone packs up and goes home. As British history amply illustrates, it ain't as easy it it might seem (Chartists, Pilgrimage of Grace, Peasants' Revolt etc etc).
This puts us in the realm of what I call politics with short lines of logistics. Stuff that can effectively be done with the stroke of a pen. (That's why "release of prisoners" or "returning troops to barracks" feature so often, for example.) Foreign policy can more often be in this category - treaties, troop movements and the like. But big domestic items - "general improvement in welfare" or "Green New Deal" can't be delivered on the spot. Even legislation can't be promised in a useful timeframe for a riot situation
The XR Precedent
XR is interesting - and not, in truth, really a riot. In many respects it's surprising XR was so easily fobbed off with can-kicking legislation, albeit notionally epic in scale. If things get really bad, Boris will keenly wish to repeat this trick. And I could well imagine some on the Left reckoning the XR type of outcome - virtue-signalling legislation for long term change, mutatis mutandis - is actually quite a good one, if less immediately dramatic than a coup. If Starmer is as smart as some reckon, that's what he'll angle for: it's Parliamentary (which he'll happily front for any day of the week); it can be packaged to look highly responsible; he can even attempt to get (some) all-party support - very PM-like. In fact, if Cummings is really on the ball, he'll be planning how to get ahead of this one right now, as May more-or-less did last year. The upcoming "Great Recovery Bill" is the obvious vehicle; and if Boris doesn't propose the relevant clauses himself we may be sure Starmer will be quick with his own amendments.
But back to demands emerging from the more lurid extra-Parliamentary riot-scenario: what's it to be? I mentioned release of prisoners with a purpose, because amnesty for looters might very well be on the list by the time we're finished. Beyond that, I'm not keen to give anyone ideas. Except ...
The EU Angle
As has been widely surmised, part of this imminent potential crisis is surely tied in with the looming deadline for Barnier to come off the pot. A classic stroke-of-the-pen job would be to demand, say, that Frost be sent to grovel for an extension of the transition period. Let's see how this is first floated in public - a C@W Extension Bingo prize for the first authentic sighting of this in the specific context of the putative riots. (Note, however: a lot of the activist Left is for Lexit.) With the Beeb's active connivance, ways can be found to insinuate this, then try to sell it as part of a package to appease the looters. Far-fetched? That's before you factor in the deviousness of a Mandelson or the brazen determination of a Gina Miller.
Here's a prediction. If the putative arson etc is on a scale that's material for the economy, the EU will swing in with an offer, along the lines of: UK to get a pro rata share of an EU post-Covid economic stimulus package, plus immediate solidarity & cohesion fund payments targeted at inner city areas (to be distributed by city mayors) - in return for a 2-year transition-period extension, plus x, y and z ...
Even Starmer might find it hard not to front for that.
ND
- a leadership vacuum if riots ensue
- the 'XR solution' from Starmer - OR Boris
- frustration for Khan
- the EU's Big Play ...
For every Zuckerberg and Gates and their homegrown empires, there's a Green, an Ecclestone and a Deripaska. They spotted the distressed or undervalued asset, they capitalised on it, invested it, looted it.
The world of power-politics is full of entrepreneurs on the lookout, too. And we've all been mulling over a distress scenario - BLM copycat riots, for want of a better term - which might be coming to the boil right now, and which must look like the plummest of plum opportunities for several people, particularly on the Left, if they can stop it degenerating into another 2011. If they can get ahead of it at all, that is ...
Now let's immediately acknowledge that sometimes these violent prospects evaporate. A good example is Grenfell. That seemed pretty febrile at the time: but to my surprise, it settled fairly quickly into a deep and luxuriant patch of traditional English long grass, its insurgency potential slipping away. Nor did Les Gilets Jaunes ever really gained hardcore Political traction (we'll come to XR later, because it's important). Yes, Britain's armchair revolutionaries - white, Oxbridge, dilettante - are indeed wedded to their equally luxuriant armchairs. They still hanker after being the officer-class, though, directing the street-masses via social media from their châteaux HQs. And there's no obvious sign of organic leadership within the demonstrators just yet.
The anti-racism demonstrators, overwhelmingly aged under 30, have largely been part of a movement using the LDNBLM hashtag that has no identifiable leaders and whose events are publicised via word of mouth and social mediaWe'll start with the more lurid possibilities. Let's consider at least the possibility that UK summer riots, if they occur, might allow for political initiative; and that several ambitious fellows have spotted a leadership vacancy. If things develop into no more than 2011-style looting & arson, well, not many established politicians want their names to be blackened by association with inchoate anarchy. But the Left is keenly looking for opportunities to Politicise (as Kev commented BTL here, "it's the Left's way of gaining back what they couldn't get through the ballot box"), eagerly abetted by the Beeb, as many have noted.
The question, then, is: IF rioting starts here ... who's likely to attempt what?
The Players
In many such circumstances someone on the government side might try to make a name for themselves as the hard man. It could be argued Cameron had a crack at this back in 2011, along with his DPP, one Kier Starmer ... But - Priti Patel? Doesn't look terribly plausible. Boris? Errr, no.
No, we're looking for Grabber to emerge from the other side. If Corbyn's regime was still in place, I'd have expected it to be McDonnell, a genuine revolutionary on paper: but again, none of them really ran with Grenfell.
Is there anyone who can front for the putative rioters, in the sense of declaring themselves to be the leader, particularly for "negotiating" purposes? This would be quite difficult for any established politician when (innocent) people, including coppers and fire-fighters, start getting hurt. It's possible one of the new intake of firebrand Labour MPs might give it a crack, (nothing to lose, see what happens). Clearly enough there are some unpleasant people in those ranks, but personally I don't know enough about them to nominate any. Of the established urban MPs: David 'Broadwater' Lammy? No revolutionary, he: rather, in recent times a man of measured statements and nuanced views. Diane Abbbottt? Hmm.
I think we may also rule out Starmer. For several reasons he doesn't look like fronting up for violence: it's categorically not in his makeup (respectable lawyer, not revolutionary; and a prosecutor to boot). He'll want to capitalise alright - by staying exactly where he is, risking nothing, in order to have the plum fall in his lap all the more certainly in 2025. He might be wrong about that, of course, but it'll be his strategy - statesmanlike mediator; distant and lofty proscriber of vague & worthy medicaments. He just needs to watch his back for the serious impatience within the People's Party that has already been angrily directed his way on several occasions already.
Outside Parliament (which is of course where the really fidgety Momentum types feel the action should be) ... Stormzy? Owen Jones? Someone from rather more, errr, mainstream pop-culture - Gary Lineker? Who can tell; the hour doth sometimes bringeth forward the man: but can anyone seriously spot a Martin Luther King or a Nelson Mandela out there in Park Lane?
Someone who can be absolutely guaranteed to be seen prominently flitting about with both the hare and the hounds is of course Sadiq Khan. His ambition to be seen to be in command of the "BAME vote" is never far below the surface; but his desire for world-stage metro respectability is pretty enormous, too - him with his world-class police force and armoured Range Rover. Plus, of course, he's ultra-transactional (and very pragmatic, as every mayor ends up being): everything's up for negotiation - and he's busting to get back at HMG for the recent TfL settlement he was forced to swallow. Like Starmer though, what he really wants is a Good-War rep for future purposes, not a high-risk position in the streets. (And if there's half a chance of a "responsible", Parliamentary outcome - see XR below - Khan, as so often, will be deeply frustrated at his own current lack of a Parliamentary platform, and will try hard to inveigle himself onto the platform.)
All in all, for want of obvious outright, authoritative leadership willing to get down and dirty, Gerry Adams style, the Left may encounter some challenges in re-purposing riots into something more tangibly Political. It's tantalising for them, because (a) they don't get many opportunities and are currently smarting from GE2019; (b) in strictly Marxist terms a section of the urban BAME community might actually be in a technically revolutionary frame of mind: nothing to lose, any change whatsoever must be beneficial to them. But the same theory would also suggest that an ethnic minority doth not a revolution make - nor indeed anything short of the entire Working Class.
What will be the demands?
All this is by way of ruminating on an age-old issue: in large-scale conflict, it suits both sides to know who speaks for - and can deliver - the other side. Even calling for unconditional capitulation generally pre-supposes some effective leadership on the losing side that can present themselves for signing the instrument of surrender, and reliably thereafter give the dismal command to stand down. If it's more balanced, then actual negotiations need to be conducted, for which an authoritative counterparty is required (e.g. Good Friday Agreement).
There's something else that in due course needs to be tied down. What, concretely, will the Left be demanding? If they don't know, it all descends into mere anarchy and they lose their moment.
Sometimes there is tactical merit in making ridiculous ("impossibilist") demands to ensure failure and dissatisfaction, a strategem often associated with Trotsky. But in June 2020, as we've said, there is likely to be a strong desire on the Left to leverage the rare moment to obtain something immediately tangible on the political front (as well as, errr, electrical goods and fashionable clothing). "A better deal for BAME people" or similar doesn't really advance their cause in quite the immediate ways they'd like. Black History Month to be extended to a full year? Compulsory diversity training for the entire population? A special BAME minimum wage? Immediate rehousing for everyone living in a tower block?
The problem is clear. For a political demand to be successful, the gain it seeks must be tangibly, irreversably deliverable. This is a real challenge for sudden uprisings, when the said gain must be promptly deliverable, too - before the rain starts and everyone packs up and goes home. As British history amply illustrates, it ain't as easy it it might seem (Chartists, Pilgrimage of Grace, Peasants' Revolt etc etc).
This puts us in the realm of what I call politics with short lines of logistics. Stuff that can effectively be done with the stroke of a pen. (That's why "release of prisoners" or "returning troops to barracks" feature so often, for example.) Foreign policy can more often be in this category - treaties, troop movements and the like. But big domestic items - "general improvement in welfare" or "Green New Deal" can't be delivered on the spot. Even legislation can't be promised in a useful timeframe for a riot situation
The XR Precedent
XR is interesting - and not, in truth, really a riot. In many respects it's surprising XR was so easily fobbed off with can-kicking legislation, albeit notionally epic in scale. If things get really bad, Boris will keenly wish to repeat this trick. And I could well imagine some on the Left reckoning the XR type of outcome - virtue-signalling legislation for long term change, mutatis mutandis - is actually quite a good one, if less immediately dramatic than a coup. If Starmer is as smart as some reckon, that's what he'll angle for: it's Parliamentary (which he'll happily front for any day of the week); it can be packaged to look highly responsible; he can even attempt to get (some) all-party support - very PM-like. In fact, if Cummings is really on the ball, he'll be planning how to get ahead of this one right now, as May more-or-less did last year. The upcoming "Great Recovery Bill" is the obvious vehicle; and if Boris doesn't propose the relevant clauses himself we may be sure Starmer will be quick with his own amendments.
But back to demands emerging from the more lurid extra-Parliamentary riot-scenario: what's it to be? I mentioned release of prisoners with a purpose, because amnesty for looters might very well be on the list by the time we're finished. Beyond that, I'm not keen to give anyone ideas. Except ...
The EU Angle
As has been widely surmised, part of this imminent potential crisis is surely tied in with the looming deadline for Barnier to come off the pot. A classic stroke-of-the-pen job would be to demand, say, that Frost be sent to grovel for an extension of the transition period. Let's see how this is first floated in public - a C@W Extension Bingo prize for the first authentic sighting of this in the specific context of the putative riots. (Note, however: a lot of the activist Left is for Lexit.) With the Beeb's active connivance, ways can be found to insinuate this, then try to sell it as part of a package to appease the looters. Far-fetched? That's before you factor in the deviousness of a Mandelson or the brazen determination of a Gina Miller.
Here's a prediction. If the putative arson etc is on a scale that's material for the economy, the EU will swing in with an offer, along the lines of: UK to get a pro rata share of an EU post-Covid economic stimulus package, plus immediate solidarity & cohesion fund payments targeted at inner city areas (to be distributed by city mayors) - in return for a 2-year transition-period extension, plus x, y and z ...
Even Starmer might find it hard not to front for that.
ND
Saturday, 16 May 2020
The Unlikely Hegemony of 'Thatcherite' Economics
You've probably gathered that I have a hobby of observing the loose cadre of idealistic, educated Corbynist / Momentumite types, dating from the 2011 riots. It's a serious and important social phenomenon: the evolution of an officer-class, potentially to lead the *revolution*. This isn't going to be my magnum opus on the subject, but rather an interesting snapshot from last week.
The Corbynist in question is one Aaron Bastani: look him up for yourself, he is as wrongheaded as it is possible to imagine but transparently, ingenuously, painfully honest. He has also (supposedly) worked up a fully-developed new vision of the future that glories in the title fully automated luxury communism (sic): needless to say his vision is revered in some leftist quarters, and scorned in others (they all despise each other cordially in best Life of Brian fashion - it's all that earnest thinking).
Anyhow, à propos of "The Treasury is modelling a potential £500 *billion* deficit for this financial year. That would be around 25% of GDP", last week he went on to tweet:
ND
The Corbynist in question is one Aaron Bastani: look him up for yourself, he is as wrongheaded as it is possible to imagine but transparently, ingenuously, painfully honest. He has also (supposedly) worked up a fully-developed new vision of the future that glories in the title fully automated luxury communism (sic): needless to say his vision is revered in some leftist quarters, and scorned in others (they all despise each other cordially in best Life of Brian fashion - it's all that earnest thinking).
Anyhow, à propos of "The Treasury is modelling a potential £500 *billion* deficit for this financial year. That would be around 25% of GDP", last week he went on to tweet:
You have to suspect Tories will go for pensions if deficit is as bad as it could be. They are going to massively rise in coming decades anyway so might as well deploy some shock doctrine. I think they’ll plump for that, citing ‘generational justice’, and VAT/NI.Now let's immediately accept that one interpretation of this, is: Bastani is merely predicting what the Tories will do next, because he assumes that they (foolishly) think "it all needs to be paid back eventually". But that's not how I read it. It seems to me (and others in the thread following his tweet) that young Aaron himself thinks it all does indeed have to be "paid back" - 'cept he'd do it via a wealth tax etc etc. He's just mulling over the conventional options for doing so, and speculating on the politics around the choices available. (I have no intention of ringing him up and finding out which is correct.) In any event, he didn't rise to the chiding of one of his BTL commenters who retorted:
Love the comments on here from Corbynistas implying the Govt have spent too much! Pot/Kettle.So for now, I'm sticking with my interpretation. Deep in the public psyche, plain vanilla grocer's-daughter Thatcherism rules, OK!
ND
Thursday, 16 April 2020
An Eruption on the Left
With the implosion of Bernie Sanders and the final damping of the pitiful Long-Bailey squib, the misery for the Anglo-left seemed complete for the time being; and I was planning to write about how the comrades were settling down for a period of dispirited low-key rumination, whistling in the dark and trying to persuade each other to stay in the Party, stay engaged, stay strong.
Strong? Just about the strongest strategic move they've taken in 2020 has been to accommodate themselves as best they know to the quickly-apparent inevitability of Starmer - trying to pour a thin layer of quick-setting cement on his left-gesturing *pledges*, despite the manifest lame hopelessness of this gambit. And there might yet be a post on that some day soon: I remain fascinated by how the thoughtful and well-intended fraction of the Corbynist project is going to evolve.
But then; instead of the next event in the grid of their leftist lives being the EHRC report on anti-semitism ... along comes the Mantel-sized blockbuster that is the leaked internal report. What an eruption!
The early responses are quite revealing.
The Tories never behave like this ... Yes, boys and girls, it's you!
ND
Strong? Just about the strongest strategic move they've taken in 2020 has been to accommodate themselves as best they know to the quickly-apparent inevitability of Starmer - trying to pour a thin layer of quick-setting cement on his left-gesturing *pledges*, despite the manifest lame hopelessness of this gambit. And there might yet be a post on that some day soon: I remain fascinated by how the thoughtful and well-intended fraction of the Corbynist project is going to evolve.
But then; instead of the next event in the grid of their leftist lives being the EHRC report on anti-semitism ... along comes the Mantel-sized blockbuster that is the leaked internal report. What an eruption!
The early responses are quite revealing.
- See, we could have won in 2017, we wuz betrayed, we wuz robbed!
- The Tories never behave like this!
- Those centrists [sic] are genuinely nasty! And from some ...
- Now we really gotta leave this horrible party!
The Tories never behave like this ... Yes, boys and girls, it's you!
ND
Tuesday, 17 March 2020
The Virus and the Left
Wow, we have copped Interesting Times, right in the solar plexus. Given that these days, everyone operates under the slogan never let a good crisis go to waste, there's a lot of manoeuvering in prospect. And lucky old Alex Salmond, eh? And lucky old Labour Party (EHRC report).
Now then, the Left: and first to Xi, the ultimate leftie. He's probably thinking he's ridden this one out, and taken the opportunity to ramp up universal, highly-granular state micro-control into the bargain - so a rather good bargain it may seem, to him. As we wrote in Feb, mass outbreaks elsewhere may take the heat off him good and proper. Now all he has to do is promote the "US biological warfare" meme in his spare time.
Now to our own miserable Left. Obviously they are itching to go Full Hostile against Boris' handling of the thing, and of course they have the luxury of making free, cowardly sniping attacks, thinly disguised as innocent questions etc. They have form, bigtime. In WW2 they sniped at the National (coalition) government mercilessly: Churchill survived several ultra-close votes. At the start of the war, of course, the far left opposed it altogether, on Uncle Joe's orders, as a capitalist war against his ally, that nice Herr Hitler. And at the height of the Battle of Britain (as Londoners of my father's generation never forgot) the Liverpool dockers were on strike. Oh, the luxury of opposition.
And then of course there was the relentless work of the Labour Party to advance their strategic cause, triumphing in 1945 while the war on Japan was still being waged. Don't all the Labour hopefuls dream of playing Attlee to BoJo's Churchill? (Though they wouldn't want to push the analogy too far.)
Trouble is, notwithstanding the free hits the Left can make with their peashooters, their opponent Boris-Cummings seems to be sticking to the rather compelling advice of his impressive and highly-regarded scientific advisers. Experts! So all the predictable Polly Toynbees and the silly Simon Jenkins have to hold back a bit (just a bit), because what do they know? And because the government's sages advise differently to the foreigners (and who on earth would want Christine Lagarde running their banking?) ... oh, all manner of puzzles for a lefty to grapple with. (Even Aaron Bastani is a teeny bit inclined to be impressed by the government's actions. And what are the Euro-maniacs to say? "Extend the transition period" (© Lisa Nandy 2020) is a pretty feeble battle-cry from a desperate politician. (Where are Starmer and Wrong-Daily in all this, BTW?)
And: what do I know? Except that there's an acid test coming soon. Perhaps the most interesting political development is the would-be Red Guard of Momentum supposedly mobilising its private army of 100,000 to Do Good in their communities. This tries to tap into the strand of altruism, love and goodwill (sic) that definitely is to be found within the nastier rantings of the youthful 2017-vintage Corbyite left. (Seriously, it really is in there, in all the bile.) Now my observation is that, however honourable this sentiment, it doesn't typically stretch to the traditional kinds of Salvation by Good Works like actually rolling up sleeves and becoming a decent, hardworking local councillor. But who knows? The Chinese CP gained power by many years of slogging away at local level, solving ordinary people's pressing practical problems. Oh, and adroit military tactics too.
Interesting Times, eh? Keep safe, everyone.
ND
UPDATE: Kier Stamer has duly broken cover with this pious and platitudinous pile. Précis: I want to be Attlee ...
Now then, the Left: and first to Xi, the ultimate leftie. He's probably thinking he's ridden this one out, and taken the opportunity to ramp up universal, highly-granular state micro-control into the bargain - so a rather good bargain it may seem, to him. As we wrote in Feb, mass outbreaks elsewhere may take the heat off him good and proper. Now all he has to do is promote the "US biological warfare" meme in his spare time.
Now to our own miserable Left. Obviously they are itching to go Full Hostile against Boris' handling of the thing, and of course they have the luxury of making free, cowardly sniping attacks, thinly disguised as innocent questions etc. They have form, bigtime. In WW2 they sniped at the National (coalition) government mercilessly: Churchill survived several ultra-close votes. At the start of the war, of course, the far left opposed it altogether, on Uncle Joe's orders, as a capitalist war against his ally, that nice Herr Hitler. And at the height of the Battle of Britain (as Londoners of my father's generation never forgot) the Liverpool dockers were on strike. Oh, the luxury of opposition.
And then of course there was the relentless work of the Labour Party to advance their strategic cause, triumphing in 1945 while the war on Japan was still being waged. Don't all the Labour hopefuls dream of playing Attlee to BoJo's Churchill? (Though they wouldn't want to push the analogy too far.)
Trouble is, notwithstanding the free hits the Left can make with their peashooters, their opponent Boris-Cummings seems to be sticking to the rather compelling advice of his impressive and highly-regarded scientific advisers. Experts! So all the predictable Polly Toynbees and the silly Simon Jenkins have to hold back a bit (just a bit), because what do they know? And because the government's sages advise differently to the foreigners (and who on earth would want Christine Lagarde running their banking?) ... oh, all manner of puzzles for a lefty to grapple with. (Even Aaron Bastani is a teeny bit inclined to be impressed by the government's actions. And what are the Euro-maniacs to say? "Extend the transition period" (© Lisa Nandy 2020) is a pretty feeble battle-cry from a desperate politician. (Where are Starmer and Wrong-Daily in all this, BTW?)
And: what do I know? Except that there's an acid test coming soon. Perhaps the most interesting political development is the would-be Red Guard of Momentum supposedly mobilising its private army of 100,000 to Do Good in their communities. This tries to tap into the strand of altruism, love and goodwill (sic) that definitely is to be found within the nastier rantings of the youthful 2017-vintage Corbyite left. (Seriously, it really is in there, in all the bile.) Now my observation is that, however honourable this sentiment, it doesn't typically stretch to the traditional kinds of Salvation by Good Works like actually rolling up sleeves and becoming a decent, hardworking local councillor. But who knows? The Chinese CP gained power by many years of slogging away at local level, solving ordinary people's pressing practical problems. Oh, and adroit military tactics too.
Interesting Times, eh? Keep safe, everyone.
ND
UPDATE: Kier Stamer has duly broken cover with this pious and platitudinous pile. Précis: I want to be Attlee ...
Sunday, 15 December 2019
Weekend Election (2) - What Next
To envision the full potential horror of Momentum - a sophisticated 'ground operation' of decisive effectiveness in the cause of marxist identitarian dictatorship** - is one thing. To figure out how to neutralise it politically is quite another, whatever parliamentary majority the Conservatives now command. By 'it', I don't just mean Momentum with a capital 'M': the left is often fairly amorphous & blob-like, and will readily re-form in a different guise: they're good at that. What's meant here is the determined, disaffacted leftist bedsit 'officer class' we've discussed before which, if Momentum disbanded tomorrow, would still exist as a fully networked 'virtual' revolutionary base. They've trained together; they've 'fought' together; the camaraderie is there.
There are two 'passive' approaches I don't think it prudent to rely upon; one complacent and lazy, the other honourable and much more demanding.
1. The lazy argument is that Corbyn-style marxism is now proven to be terminally unattractive to the British electorate: ergo, the matter can safely be ignored. They'll all drift off to get proper jobs and have families. If they do ever re-surface, they'll be spurned just as surely as they have been this time around - and take down the Labour Party with them (again).
I don't buy either part of that. We might readily accept that some of them will be pretty disillusioned right now, and may well drift away. The attention span of da yoof is notoriously short - indeed, one might fairly contend they've already slipped from their 2017 high-water mark. That's helpful, as far as it goes: some of the weaker brethren are, well, weak. But for a solid core, the grievances are strong, the ideology solid, the narrative compelling. It's easy to stay networked, ready to be re-mobilised at short notice - even if they aren't actually back in action straight away (see footnote).
And next time? Under better generalship in the mainstream Labour Party, the crack Momentum infantry could easily have had far greater impact this time. The Labour campaign, incompetently conducted by first-timers following Corbyn's purge at the time of Party Conference, was strategically flawed, tactically inept (e.g. pouring resources into Uxbridge, a mere vanity project) - and that's before factoring in the oft-remarked observation that facing almost any other leader than Corbyn, the Tories would have been toast (unprovable; but it's certainly what many Tories think). Good troops were squandered by Corbyn's Labour like the Commonwealth forces in the fall of Singapore. Who's to say that the infinitely more political McDonnell couldn't have pulled it off? Complacency about next time isn't good enough.
2. The more strenuous, and altogether honourable 'passive' approach recognises the grievances - the real ones. It attacks them via a 'One Nation Conservative' strategy, as announced by Boris on Friday, of Actually Redressing the Grievances; and who knows, he may mean it. Nothing like draining the swamp to flush out the alligators: and it would be wonderful to be able to rely on this alone, to deal with the disaffection and see off the marxists.
The trouble with this laudable mission is several-fold. (a) Some longstanding problems take an awful lot of turning around: maybe more than one parliament, given the mighty distractions of Brexit, and a probable recession starting soon. (b) Some of the grievances are outright spurious, but the contrived 'hurt' is real enough in the eyes of the beholders. (c) Some problems, notably health and old-age provision get bigger, the more successful you are at dealing with the current manifestations. Demand will always be one step ahead of supply. (d) Some problems are unlikely to be solved by anything I've seen in anyone's manifesto.
All in all, a realistic best case would be that in 2024 Johnson's government gets a decent amount of credit for demonstrably trying hard - hopefully with a few tangible quick wins that haven't simply been banked and forgotten. But everything can always be labelled "too little, too late". It will be a mighty feat of WW2-style Keynsianism - plus supporting propaganda - to leave a large number of people feeling materially and morally better off in a mere five years. The BBC cannot be relied upon to do anything constructive towards that end, nor (e.g.) the teachers' unions, nor Labour councils ... etc etc. That's not even to mention the SNP.
Splendid though it would be to rely on manifest Tory success in addressing the nation's intractable problems for Momentum spontaneously to wither on the vine within five years ... but I wouldn't trust to it myself.
(Part 3 to come)
ND
________
** In case anyone imagines this is overstating the matter, you don't have to go far to find people writing about preparations to wage the Class War starting on Monday.
There are two 'passive' approaches I don't think it prudent to rely upon; one complacent and lazy, the other honourable and much more demanding.
1. The lazy argument is that Corbyn-style marxism is now proven to be terminally unattractive to the British electorate: ergo, the matter can safely be ignored. They'll all drift off to get proper jobs and have families. If they do ever re-surface, they'll be spurned just as surely as they have been this time around - and take down the Labour Party with them (again).
I don't buy either part of that. We might readily accept that some of them will be pretty disillusioned right now, and may well drift away. The attention span of da yoof is notoriously short - indeed, one might fairly contend they've already slipped from their 2017 high-water mark. That's helpful, as far as it goes: some of the weaker brethren are, well, weak. But for a solid core, the grievances are strong, the ideology solid, the narrative compelling. It's easy to stay networked, ready to be re-mobilised at short notice - even if they aren't actually back in action straight away (see footnote).
And next time? Under better generalship in the mainstream Labour Party, the crack Momentum infantry could easily have had far greater impact this time. The Labour campaign, incompetently conducted by first-timers following Corbyn's purge at the time of Party Conference, was strategically flawed, tactically inept (e.g. pouring resources into Uxbridge, a mere vanity project) - and that's before factoring in the oft-remarked observation that facing almost any other leader than Corbyn, the Tories would have been toast (unprovable; but it's certainly what many Tories think). Good troops were squandered by Corbyn's Labour like the Commonwealth forces in the fall of Singapore. Who's to say that the infinitely more political McDonnell couldn't have pulled it off? Complacency about next time isn't good enough.
2. The more strenuous, and altogether honourable 'passive' approach recognises the grievances - the real ones. It attacks them via a 'One Nation Conservative' strategy, as announced by Boris on Friday, of Actually Redressing the Grievances; and who knows, he may mean it. Nothing like draining the swamp to flush out the alligators: and it would be wonderful to be able to rely on this alone, to deal with the disaffection and see off the marxists.
The trouble with this laudable mission is several-fold. (a) Some longstanding problems take an awful lot of turning around: maybe more than one parliament, given the mighty distractions of Brexit, and a probable recession starting soon. (b) Some of the grievances are outright spurious, but the contrived 'hurt' is real enough in the eyes of the beholders. (c) Some problems, notably health and old-age provision get bigger, the more successful you are at dealing with the current manifestations. Demand will always be one step ahead of supply. (d) Some problems are unlikely to be solved by anything I've seen in anyone's manifesto.
All in all, a realistic best case would be that in 2024 Johnson's government gets a decent amount of credit for demonstrably trying hard - hopefully with a few tangible quick wins that haven't simply been banked and forgotten. But everything can always be labelled "too little, too late". It will be a mighty feat of WW2-style Keynsianism - plus supporting propaganda - to leave a large number of people feeling materially and morally better off in a mere five years. The BBC cannot be relied upon to do anything constructive towards that end, nor (e.g.) the teachers' unions, nor Labour councils ... etc etc. That's not even to mention the SNP.
Splendid though it would be to rely on manifest Tory success in addressing the nation's intractable problems for Momentum spontaneously to wither on the vine within five years ... but I wouldn't trust to it myself.
(Part 3 to come)
ND
________
** In case anyone imagines this is overstating the matter, you don't have to go far to find people writing about preparations to wage the Class War starting on Monday.
Saturday, 14 December 2019
Weekend Election Thoughts (1): Momentum
Here's an interesting difference between the two main parties. If you volunteer to go canvassing for the Tories, you are welcomed with open arms and - frequently with little, or even no 'training' - sent straight out onto the streets with a cheery "have you done this before?" If you're a first-timer, you might be sent out as part of a little team. If you self-identify as "experienced", or are just cocky, they'll happily send you out alone.
So how difficult can it be, to ask "can we count on your support?". Well. For those who don't know, the old business of just sticking people down on the list as "pledge", "doubtful" or "other" are long since over. Since the rise of UKIP, Tory canvassers have supposedly been trying to classify people much more finely, e.g. "Brexit-formerly-Labour". In theory, they'd get a different personalised letter to the person who was "Brexit-formerly-Cons". (Just once in a while, there's a local operation sufficiently competent to make use of such subtleties. In truth, it really only makes sense in official target seats or by-elections of national importance, when central resources are available.)
Oh yes: and we're not to call it "canvassing" any more. It's "listening". Now where did that come from? The answer is - Momentum. And a very stark contrast they present to what us Tories do
As well as having a bit of an inside perspective on Momentum (it's a long story), I first met these chaps in action on the doorstep in 2017. A 20-something rang the doorbell, and he probably guessed he was on a sticky wicket because we had a poster in the window. So that's strange, right from the off: received wisdom is not to waste your time with the other side, there's just too many houses to get round. But evidently it was all in his brief, because he had a string of well-crafted Q&A scripts, designed to actually engage and probe and, yes, maybe even to convince.
But there isn't one person in ten thousand who can take on that challenge without (a) training and (b) motivation. Well, we live in a marginal. But still: that's impressive. BTW, he had clearly been bussed in because his local knowledge was rudimentary - though not zero - and soon gave out. Not so his general intelligence: he was an educated, polite, thoughtful person (and I've encountered more of the same in 2019) and gave no outward signs of rabidity, snowflakery, or cult-grooming. What he had clearly undertaken was extensive political education (might have been self-taught, of course) - and some very purposeful training: which definitely included the importance of "listening".
Two things about this. First, there is no serious Tory equivalent of such training - some half-hearted measures at best (like making people call it "listening"!), which are pretty-much lost on confident middle-aged activists who just hit the streets with "can we count on ..." as they always have. And, frankly, few of our youthful activists (yes, there are quite a lot of them in the Tory ranks these days, itself a big change over the last ten years) could hold a candle to this lot. We have no Doctrine to steep them in! - because "no Doctrine" is half of our raison d'être.
The second thing is this. Since 2011, as regular C@W-ers will know, I have been much taken with the concept of a capable new officer-class emerging within the ranks of politically-active, educated, disillusioned 20-somethings. 2011? The year of the riots, of course, when one of our esteemed BTL-ers ('Anon', if I recall) opined that while the nonsense of that summer was pretty much anarchy, frequently of merely the opportunistic-looting kind (albeit with some Blackberry-based 'organisation'), we ain't seen nothing yet. Just wait until the leftist bedsit officer-class emerges.
Momentum is a pretty fair candidate to be just that. Its senior ranks (I can assure you if you don't already know) include some really intelligent people. They are motivated. They have stamina. They are strongly inclined towards a Doctrine, though I'm not sure it's fully formed. They are utterly hostile to what generally gets called neo-liberalism; though again, that's not a wholly coherent doctrinal stance because by some definitions, I am too. They have a programme of political education and, up to a point, it's pretty practical in its intentions, if not in its outcomes. And some of them - what proportion, I know not - are outright revolutionary marxists who believe their time has come.
In ones nightmares, Momentum could be truly formidable. That's certainly its intention! And it needs to be taken carefully into the reckoning.
More to come
ND
So how difficult can it be, to ask "can we count on your support?". Well. For those who don't know, the old business of just sticking people down on the list as "pledge", "doubtful" or "other" are long since over. Since the rise of UKIP, Tory canvassers have supposedly been trying to classify people much more finely, e.g. "Brexit-formerly-Labour". In theory, they'd get a different personalised letter to the person who was "Brexit-formerly-Cons". (Just once in a while, there's a local operation sufficiently competent to make use of such subtleties. In truth, it really only makes sense in official target seats or by-elections of national importance, when central resources are available.)
Oh yes: and we're not to call it "canvassing" any more. It's "listening". Now where did that come from? The answer is - Momentum. And a very stark contrast they present to what us Tories do
As well as having a bit of an inside perspective on Momentum (it's a long story), I first met these chaps in action on the doorstep in 2017. A 20-something rang the doorbell, and he probably guessed he was on a sticky wicket because we had a poster in the window. So that's strange, right from the off: received wisdom is not to waste your time with the other side, there's just too many houses to get round. But evidently it was all in his brief, because he had a string of well-crafted Q&A scripts, designed to actually engage and probe and, yes, maybe even to convince.
But there isn't one person in ten thousand who can take on that challenge without (a) training and (b) motivation. Well, we live in a marginal. But still: that's impressive. BTW, he had clearly been bussed in because his local knowledge was rudimentary - though not zero - and soon gave out. Not so his general intelligence: he was an educated, polite, thoughtful person (and I've encountered more of the same in 2019) and gave no outward signs of rabidity, snowflakery, or cult-grooming. What he had clearly undertaken was extensive political education (might have been self-taught, of course) - and some very purposeful training: which definitely included the importance of "listening".
Two things about this. First, there is no serious Tory equivalent of such training - some half-hearted measures at best (like making people call it "listening"!), which are pretty-much lost on confident middle-aged activists who just hit the streets with "can we count on ..." as they always have. And, frankly, few of our youthful activists (yes, there are quite a lot of them in the Tory ranks these days, itself a big change over the last ten years) could hold a candle to this lot. We have no Doctrine to steep them in! - because "no Doctrine" is half of our raison d'être.
The second thing is this. Since 2011, as regular C@W-ers will know, I have been much taken with the concept of a capable new officer-class emerging within the ranks of politically-active, educated, disillusioned 20-somethings. 2011? The year of the riots, of course, when one of our esteemed BTL-ers ('Anon', if I recall) opined that while the nonsense of that summer was pretty much anarchy, frequently of merely the opportunistic-looting kind (albeit with some Blackberry-based 'organisation'), we ain't seen nothing yet. Just wait until the leftist bedsit officer-class emerges.
Momentum is a pretty fair candidate to be just that. Its senior ranks (I can assure you if you don't already know) include some really intelligent people. They are motivated. They have stamina. They are strongly inclined towards a Doctrine, though I'm not sure it's fully formed. They are utterly hostile to what generally gets called neo-liberalism; though again, that's not a wholly coherent doctrinal stance because by some definitions, I am too. They have a programme of political education and, up to a point, it's pretty practical in its intentions, if not in its outcomes. And some of them - what proportion, I know not - are outright revolutionary marxists who believe their time has come.
In ones nightmares, Momentum could be truly formidable. That's certainly its intention! And it needs to be taken carefully into the reckoning.
More to come
ND
Friday, 13 December 2019
The Potential Significance is Great
... but only 'potential'. Johnson's crew must use this astonishing opportunity, to wrench the Overton window into a new position in the multi-dimensional political space. But this needs to be adroit; it needs to be very determined; and it needs not to be distracted by the inevitable EU negotiating morass (which must also receive full attention).
The aim (to caricature it briefly) must be to force 'reasonable' members of the Momentum tendency - yes, they exist - to give up their recent dreams. A truly vital task.
Wow. More over the weekend. Have at it BTL.
ND
The aim (to caricature it briefly) must be to force 'reasonable' members of the Momentum tendency - yes, they exist - to give up their recent dreams. A truly vital task.
Wow. More over the weekend. Have at it BTL.
ND
Tuesday, 2 July 2019
Peak Corbyn
As you perhaps know I am an inveterate, nay veteran strategiser: I have done it for a living in the military and in commerce. In the aftermath of the dreadful GE 2017, my thoughts inevitably turned to how the Tories might work their way out of the ridiculous hole May had dropped them in. (Obviously someone had been given an inkling of the result beforehand, because at least the DUP deal was immediately ready to roll.)
Sticking to aspects that are germane to the matter in hand right now, my strategy incorporated the following elements that had positive leverage potential:
Then the long drawn-out Brexit stuff engulfed them, and Corbyn's resolute fence-sitting - almost indistinguishable from being fully impaled on a sharp bit at the top - has begun to annoy quite a number on the Left. The tone of many a leftie article just now is: too late, you old git, we've got your number now, and if you change your mind this late in the day, nobody will believe you. Anyhow - remind me why we ever liked you in the first place? And where's that pizza?
Oh, how fickle is fortune, eh? (see item 4 above). And then we come to item 2, and this week's "Corbyn has lost it" meme, so rapidly fanning out from the Murdoch press. As with all good malicious rumours, per the Trump handbook (see Scott Adams passim) the key is to say something that immediately chimes, that was almost on everyone's lips anyway, that crystalises the already-present but non-articulated thought. And, let's face it, this one falls on pretty fertile ground. The timing was perfect.
Of course, Team Corbs (I believe they go by 'LOTO') have rushed into full Rapid Rebuttal mode - but this one would have been a challenge for Bad Al Campbell** lui-même in his formidable Excalibur prime. Unfortunately, the best they can come up with is, Jezza is really quite fit. For his age. Ahem. Sadly, as lots of people know all too poignantly, there is many a deep-dementia sufferer who is as fit as a fiddle ... and that's even before we get into "Methinks / protest ..." Just how smart is it to call for a full enquiry? Who knows what else will come up?
People have periodically been calling 'Peak Corbyn' for at least 18 months, but thus far I haven't been convinced. Today, there's a decent case to be made. He seems to have a tight pretorian team that can face down even McDonnell, so they can probably keep him, El Cid-like, stuck on his fence for a good while longer. (People did the same for Gordon Brown, as we frequently noted at the time.) Trouble is, there may no longer be the adoring crowds gazing up at him from either side. No Glastonbury for Corbs this year (according the Grauniad, he'd have been booed if he'd tried). Could be quite a lonely place when the wind gets up. Clambering down again may be painful in itself, and too late anyway. Talk is already of handing the baton to Rebecca Long Bailey.
By the way, I hear McDonnell's health is not of the best ...
ND
____________________________
**Did he even start the rumour ..?
UPDATE: this, from today's Guardian
Sticking to aspects that are germane to the matter in hand right now, my strategy incorporated the following elements that had positive leverage potential:
- The next (scheduled) GE would be five years ahead, a helluva long time
- Corbyn was 68; McDonnell 66
- In the ensuing years there were likely to be a number of truly loonie-left Local Authorities to provide public evidence of what these latter-day marxists do, given a sniff of power - 5 years being a mighty long time for them to hold their discipline
- Da Yoof, whilst capable of surging onto the streets and into the polling booths in a fit of childrens-crusade enthusiasm, are nowadays notoriously fickle, flighty, of short attention-span, and low propensity to make commitments beyond the next Deliveroo pizza horizon
Then the long drawn-out Brexit stuff engulfed them, and Corbyn's resolute fence-sitting - almost indistinguishable from being fully impaled on a sharp bit at the top - has begun to annoy quite a number on the Left. The tone of many a leftie article just now is: too late, you old git, we've got your number now, and if you change your mind this late in the day, nobody will believe you. Anyhow - remind me why we ever liked you in the first place? And where's that pizza?
Oh, how fickle is fortune, eh? (see item 4 above). And then we come to item 2, and this week's "Corbyn has lost it" meme, so rapidly fanning out from the Murdoch press. As with all good malicious rumours, per the Trump handbook (see Scott Adams passim) the key is to say something that immediately chimes, that was almost on everyone's lips anyway, that crystalises the already-present but non-articulated thought. And, let's face it, this one falls on pretty fertile ground. The timing was perfect.
Of course, Team Corbs (I believe they go by 'LOTO') have rushed into full Rapid Rebuttal mode - but this one would have been a challenge for Bad Al Campbell** lui-même in his formidable Excalibur prime. Unfortunately, the best they can come up with is, Jezza is really quite fit. For his age. Ahem. Sadly, as lots of people know all too poignantly, there is many a deep-dementia sufferer who is as fit as a fiddle ... and that's even before we get into "Methinks / protest ..." Just how smart is it to call for a full enquiry? Who knows what else will come up?
People have periodically been calling 'Peak Corbyn' for at least 18 months, but thus far I haven't been convinced. Today, there's a decent case to be made. He seems to have a tight pretorian team that can face down even McDonnell, so they can probably keep him, El Cid-like, stuck on his fence for a good while longer. (People did the same for Gordon Brown, as we frequently noted at the time.) Trouble is, there may no longer be the adoring crowds gazing up at him from either side. No Glastonbury for Corbs this year (according the Grauniad, he'd have been booed if he'd tried). Could be quite a lonely place when the wind gets up. Clambering down again may be painful in itself, and too late anyway. Talk is already of handing the baton to Rebecca Long Bailey.
By the way, I hear McDonnell's health is not of the best ...
ND
____________________________
**Did he even start the rumour ..?
UPDATE: this, from today's Guardian
Rumours have been flying for months not only about Corbyn’s physical health ... but more broadly about his intellectual capacity; his ability to master an endless series of complex briefs and take timely decisions on difficult issues, while simultaneously managing a sometimes fractious party and dealing with whatever unexpected crisis blows up.AND MORE: (also Graun)
Corbynism’s greatest liability is now Jeremy Corbyn himself ... He sounds tongue-tied and looks like a man hiding from battle, which undermines the image of a candid crusader. When the hero no longer embodies principles on which his movement was founded, the whole edifice wobbles. The attention of young idealists drifts; affection turns conditional; benefit of the doubt is withdrawn. It is getting notably harder, for example, to be loyal to Corbyn and determined to combat antisemitism at the same time ... He once exuded a gentleness that made allegations of fanaticism sound preposterous. Now his peevish side cuts through. He once animated feelings of belonging and purpose in people who had felt starved of inspiration by soulless New Labour. Now he refuses to quench the thirst of his party’s parched remainers ... Few Labour MPs, if any, relish the prospect of an election under their leader, although most pretend to want one. It is hard to present Corbyn as a man for the future, and May’s departure will date him even more. He will be a stale continuity figure from the time of stasis, irradiated through years of loitering ineffectually amid the referendum’s toxic fallout. His aura of specialness has dissipated, revealing the man in all his flawed mediocrity. The prospect of Britain having a radical Labour government is sliding into the gap that has opened up between an idea people once called “Jeremy Corbyn” and the actual Jeremy Corbyn.
Sunday, 22 April 2018
Owen Jones: A True Rival to Dr North
 |
| Man of the People |
Bidding strongly for inclusion on this rather short list is Little Owen Jones. Just as with Dr North, fairly eloquent writing pours forth from his pen (from which, incidentally, he makes a small fortune - another reason he can be left to fend for himself). The relevant backstory is this.
Owen "his parents met as members of the Militant Tendency" Jones, a well-regarded Grauniad columnist and firebrand lefty author (read BQ's glowing pen-portrait of his early career) decided back in 2015 to throw in his lot with the apparently foredoomed Corbyn bid for Labour Leadership. Corbyn's campaign, subsequently to metamorphosize into the baleful Momentum, quickly took on a life of its own with some clever tech-savvy people at the helm. One of their wheezes was to award campaign brownie-points (Corbie-points? brownienose points?) to individual registered supporters for activities in furtherance of the mission, e.g. x points for signing up a new supporter, y for raising some money, z for a supportive social-meejah post etc etc. It was all very competitive, with league-tables and ladders circulated amongst the faithful. (Almost makes them sound businesslike, doesn't it? Like the Boy Scouts; or a squash club ... why do we feel it's all rather middle-class?)
You won't be surprised to learn that Little Owen proudly came top of this ladder by a country mile. Well done, Owen! Oh, how chuffed he must have been. But then, Something Went Wrong and, rather as Polly Toynbee fell out with Tony Blair and in due course with Gordon Brown, Owen concluded Jeremy was a wrong'un. Imagine! Yes, though candidate Corbyn had triumphed with his invaluable assistance, Owen withdrew his precious support and, compounding matters, proceeded to heap ordure onto the useless Labour leader's head. Guido has documented all this nicely for us; and it's worth taking a look, to savour the sheer scale of the betrayal.
But then what happened? Stone me, if Jezza didn't do really well in 2017! Oh dear oh dear, what is poor Owen to do? With a decent prospect of there being a genuine lefty government in office, a bright young star like Owen can't just smoulder on the sidelines - he needs to be right in the middle of things, important, influential. Panic sets in, and Operation Desperate Grovel is launched, for all to enjoy. A major contribution to the jollity** of the nation.
It's another pathology, of course. Can we decently laugh out loud at such a public spectacle?
Yes, I think we can.
ND
_______________
**You can perhaps imagine how carefully I have chosen my words throughout this post ...
Saturday, 17 December 2016
The Sacrifices of Paul Mason and Michael Sheen
This gave us a winter's evening laugh at Schloss Drew:
In other news: having just joined Momentum, Paul Mason is threatening to leave! [I am not making any of this up.] Make yer bloody mind up, man!
ND
UPDATE: h/t commenter Andrew Z - it may turn out the Sheen story is bollocks! That's the Graun for you. I look forward to Mason updating us on his part in the Momentum saga
Michael Sheen to swap acting for activism against 'populist right'
‘It will be a big change for how people relate to me,’ says the actor who was galvanised by his hometown’s vote for Brexit ... “Once I’m in, I’m fully in, and this is big. It will be a big change for how people relate to me” ... He has been based in Los Angeles for the past 14 years ... Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election put “massive urgency” into a decision to go home ... Port Talbot, which voted overwhelmingly for Brexit in the June referendum – a result that initially left the actor “sad and frustrated” but then determined to fight back. “How can I be most effective?” Sheen said. “What am I going to do?” as he jabbed himself in the chest.
Sheen said he was not signed up for any future acting projects.Cause or effect, Michael? Don't worry, people will know exactly how to *relate* to you.
In other news: having just joined Momentum, Paul Mason is threatening to leave! [I am not making any of this up.] Make yer bloody mind up, man!
ND
UPDATE: h/t commenter Andrew Z - it may turn out the Sheen story is bollocks! That's the Graun for you. I look forward to Mason updating us on his part in the Momentum saga
Tuesday, 6 December 2016
Momentum Lost: An Attack of the Trots
Oh dear. Momentum seemed to hold so much idealistic promise - a spontaneous mass movement tapping directly and constructively into the angst of hundreds of thousands of social-media-savvy young people.
And then the Trots turned up. Bastards! They've wrecked it, ensuring it is run by ruthless warring cliques instead of via 'MxV', a clever web-based OMOV system the Momentum tecchies have hatched. And now it all comes down to a straight fight over who gets control of the database of members and supporters.
Funnily enough, this is probably meat and drink to Corbyn himself, who has been swimming happily in foetid, Trot-infested waters for decades. But whatever will Paul Mason, their ultra-high-profile recent recruit, make of it? Actually, since 2009 he's seen it so many times before in various countries around the world, I can't imagine he's at all surprised.
Ah well, back to playing World of Warcraft in the bedsit.
ND
"Momentum has been imbued with meaning and significance above and beyond that of any other left-wing group or campaign. We haven’t only invested time and energy in Momentum, we’ve invested hopes, dreams and visions for the future in it. Most important for many of us was the expectation of “a new kind of politics”, a term which now receives mockery and laughter from both the right and the left. We wanted “straight-talking, honest politics” which put an end to the jargon-laden, focus-group-speak that Tony Blair propagated so well. But we also wanted “a kinder, gentler politics” — Momentum was to be a group built on conciliatory, positive, outward-looking debate, which would be reflected in the way we treated each other, and our opponents... At a local level, many Momentum groups have flourished — delivering political education workshops, running foodbanks, organising rallies, street-stalls and phone-banks during the leadership campaign and getting left-wing people elected to key positions in their local Constituency Labour Parties."Not only was it going to be, well, wonderful, it was going to be (a) Corbyn's praetorian guard ("we delivered a resounding 61.8% mandate for Jeremy in the Labour leadership election"); and (b) in the longer run, McDonnell's vehicle for an extra-parliamentary Marxist rising.
And then the Trots turned up. Bastards! They've wrecked it, ensuring it is run by ruthless warring cliques instead of via 'MxV', a clever web-based OMOV system the Momentum tecchies have hatched. And now it all comes down to a straight fight over who gets control of the database of members and supporters.
Funnily enough, this is probably meat and drink to Corbyn himself, who has been swimming happily in foetid, Trot-infested waters for decades. But whatever will Paul Mason, their ultra-high-profile recent recruit, make of it? Actually, since 2009 he's seen it so many times before in various countries around the world, I can't imagine he's at all surprised.
Ah well, back to playing World of Warcraft in the bedsit.
ND
Thursday, 3 November 2016
MasonWatch
I haven't suddenly developed a paranoia about the denizens of Great Queen Street.
Nor a fixation with Paul of that ilk. But I do find him a very interesting character with a lot of fascinating stuff to offer, re-hashed marxism and all. He's clearly wrestling mightily and imaginatively with the 21st century in all its turbulent novelty: and he's also (like George Monbiot / unlike Polly Toynbee) the sort of leftie who cannot dodge the need to admit when some thesis he's adopted has clashed with the Facts and is plain wrong.
And now he's joined Momentum! (another phenomenon that interests me a lot). This may be a mixed blessing for them, because he's already telling them exactly what to do, at some length.
Well, that's their problem, I am sure they will enjoy the dialectic process. However, for anyone disagreeing with the above assessment of the man, have a read of Postcapitalism and the city. Or Find each other and act! 12 principles for a neo-Bevanite left.** When you get a minute. Or two.
ND
_____________
**he does rather enjoy telling people what to do ...
UPDATE: someone else is interested in Mason, too
Nor a fixation with Paul of that ilk. But I do find him a very interesting character with a lot of fascinating stuff to offer, re-hashed marxism and all. He's clearly wrestling mightily and imaginatively with the 21st century in all its turbulent novelty: and he's also (like George Monbiot / unlike Polly Toynbee) the sort of leftie who cannot dodge the need to admit when some thesis he's adopted has clashed with the Facts and is plain wrong.
And now he's joined Momentum! (another phenomenon that interests me a lot). This may be a mixed blessing for them, because he's already telling them exactly what to do, at some length.
Well, that's their problem, I am sure they will enjoy the dialectic process. However, for anyone disagreeing with the above assessment of the man, have a read of Postcapitalism and the city. Or Find each other and act! 12 principles for a neo-Bevanite left.** When you get a minute. Or two.
ND
_____________
**he does rather enjoy telling people what to do ...
UPDATE: someone else is interested in Mason, too
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)