Trump's Tariffs: the uselessness of economists

I heard a nice joke the other day:  

After astrology, came astronomy.  After alchemy, came chemistry.  And after economics ..? 

The world has been watching and waiting in a state of fear and loathing for Trump's long-awaited, bizarrely-telegraphed barrage of punches.  What will happen now?

To me, the hilarious aspect is that nobody has a clue.  I suppose everyone agrees it will act as a brake on world trade.  Well, duh.   OK, and ... ?

If macro-economics means anything whatsoever by way of a 'science', there should be a definitive answer when such extreme measures are taken.  And to me, an avowed econo-skeptic, this all looks to be as significant as, say, the oil-price hike of 1973-4. 

Anyone round here got anything better?  What we're after is solid, unequivocal, drop-dead economy-related predictions beyond the short-term and the trivial.

ND

Trade War hots up

We can tell the talk of trade wars is having an effect, as the global stock markets are looking a little gloomy. Having said that, they always look gloomy in the summer and non-algo trading is a record lows in the markets.


But nonetheless, this trade barrier stuff by Trump is bad for the long-term global economy. Of course, there maybe some valid reasons to stop dumping of steel and agricultural products - but really this is what the WTO is for. Especially when it comes to European vs US trade. It is one thing saying China never complies so you need a more robust route, but the Western democracies always do.


For the UK, the importance of trade and the vision of the UK as able to once again straddle US and EU positions is becoming more attractive. Of course we would need a competent Government to play the trade politics which is a shame as there is none available, but at least the principle is there.


On balance though, the US going against the international norms of trade is bad for the UK as a trading nation and one that needs respect for global rules and norms. Without these there is a big downside for any business trying to complete cross-border deals.

So whilst the US issue highlights one of the weaknesses of the EU, it still poses questions as to how the UK could benefit and take advantage of any upsides.