Recession incoming?

 It is amazing really how long the Government and the media take to cotton on to real world events. 

As readers here will know, as soon as the Ukraine war broke out and sanctions were applied to Russia, an economic disaster was set in train. 

There was no hope of controlling the oil price, a weak pound and strong dollar has accelerated the damage. Then we have China with a frankly insane covid-zero policy that has hugely derailed their economy and will continue to do so. 

The effects of the above are galloping inflation, a huge excess of supply over demand across the West and energy input costs up nearly 300%.

With all of this a recession is to be expected, indeed the Government must want the demand destruction of a recession to help reduce inflation. 

The idea that a -0.3% read, hugely impacted by the reduction of spend on test and trace, is only a passing feature is for the birds. 

More likely this summer is petrol and diesel at well over £2 per litre and a further big drop in the stock markets. Until the global supply chain is sorted out, there will be no let up to the economic stress. 

As for our Government, they continue to profiteer from energy prices via VAT. They are not alone, much of the inflation now is profiteering with suppliers sensing they can push up prices if they want too. 

The inflation genie will be very difficult to control now. However, time also to keep an eye on sovereign bond yields across the EU. As we know from the 2011 Euro crisis, Italy and other economies cannot withstand inflation pressures in the Eurozone when devaluation is not an option. Germany may find itself bailing out the Euro as well as Russia. 

The great energy awakening

I saw a SUN leader today which urged the government to cut the excessive green taxes that we face in the near future, apparently as Italy and Spain are already doing. 

At last perhaps, after many years of eco-loons parading their virtues for all to see, there maybe the slow realisation that the fantasies of the greenies have no bearing on reality. China, whence our Xmas presents are to be made, is currently suffering from extreme power shortages with factories closed. This will at least give a chance to catch-up on supply chain issues, but is both unlikely to reduce prices as scarcity increases and also, umm, involves them lobbing another few billion tons of coal into their power system. 

As such, our efforts of our own pale into insignificance. And the ultimate victim must come in the form of "Net Zero 2050."

This plan, indeed law thanks to a virtue signalling parliament, has no basis in reality whatsoever, the technologies to make it happen do not exist nor the political will to build the nuclear baseload we would need.

But the biggest piece in buy-in, to change peoples' lives so radically you would need their support. Yes lots of people emote about green issues but as we know, most still drive diesel cars. They expect someone else to do something. In this case, it will start to impact everyone from now on, which I personally think is a huge vote loser and so will come upon more stringent scrutiny in the future. 

UK shrinks 2.6% in November - apparently great news

Many economists, like Andrew Sentance for example, are declaring it a relative success that the UK economy did not shrink more during the 2nd Lockdown. 

Determined to see a silver lining to every cloud, they were expecting far worse and think this sets the UK up for a big re-bound in the near future. 

For me, some of the logic is poor, the second lockdown was not like the first, shops and schools were open and people were fed up with the restrictions when virus infections 'felt' low. If you fast forward to today, it is a lot more like the first lockdown. 

Also, with the lockdown here set to last until vaccine escape (if achievable) we have a whole Q1 of negative growth to deal with. 

The UK economy is going to be a lot smaller by the time the pandemic is over / under control. Yes there will be a big period of catch up with 10% growth for a couple of quarters, but lots of the damage is permanent along with a much higher debt to GDP ratio.

A few positives though, the share market and Sterling are already trading very low as compared to historical norms - there maybe upside in both for a while yet.

To me the big unknown for the year remains inflation - can QE keep inflation in its box forever? Maybe 2021 is when we find out. 

Not enough vaccine is not the same as lack of effort

 All I read around at the moment is how incompetent the Government are, interestingly, this applies pretty much to all Countries bar New Zealand and China - where the Government is amazing and beneficent of course. 

In the UK, bored of the new lockdown and desperate to get out of things, pundits everywhere are asking why the Government has not asked.....taxi drivers, the army, pharmacists, vets, GP's, delivery drivers, schools, sports facilities...to help with the vaccine roll-out. 

It is as if the only limiting factor is willpower - the real issue is lack of vaccine availability and the sign-off to use it once tested. With the way production is going, we will be lucky to get to more than 1 million doses a week in the next month and thereafter it might ramp up. It is not just production, but of course AstraZeneca has sold the vaccine all around the world, the UK only gets a portion of what is produced. 

Still, it says a lot about how low the level is of the the commentators on the virus are at the moment, of course Keir Starmer is king of this battle, demanding 2 million a week vaccinated just because he wants to set Boris a target to fail at. 

With the quality of insight offered across the UK currently, no wonder we are in a mess....and we are keeping kids off school too, not helping improve the long-term prospects of this improving either. 

Brexit, delivered.

So, I never thought I would really write this post. The UK is leaving the EU tonight!

After all the drama since 2016 I had long predicted the Remainers and the Establishment would get their way and that the UK would not leave. At best maybe a very soft Brexit.

Actually this is too off the table. The somewhat clueless Torres are not going to end up with a soft Brexit by 2021, they will go for a shallow Canada style agreement and if they have to negotiate hard it will still be a pretty decent exit.

I think too that the now rejoiners are going to fail to understand there is no way back. There are no votes in joining the Euro, the EU army etc. This idea we will go running back is for the birds.

Others have written better about the populism, idiotic remainer idealism and the dark period of British politics. Yet now there is a new peace, victory soothes many ills and 2020 is shaping up to be a good year for the UK.

They're fleeing already

So went Boris Johnson's first commons address, to much merriment and memes.

However, in these unsettling times, this is now also true of our UK utility companies. Even the BBC has had to pick up on what the Energy and Utility companies are up to.

Having viewed with some displeasure the Labour decision to nationalise their entire sector and not being entirely trusting of the goodwill that will be shown towards their shareholders, they have acted.

National Grid has chosen to open a holding company in the EU. No mistaking here that the EU will not allow such government theft as is planned by Labour so the Grid is hoping EU law will still trump UK law (which of course, under Labour it will, when they remain - odd how events work out).

SS&E have chosen Switzerland where there is an Energy law they think they can take to International Arbitration in Geneva now that they have a Swiss Holding company.

Of course, Labour have reacted with some nonsense about billionaires and evil offshore folk. All very serious as ever. 

Very sensible corporate planning by the Utilities though, much as companies nervous about Brexit have set-up already in the EU.

What it shows yet again is how hot air from Politicians have real world impacts. I have some sympathy with those saying our politics is no good when both sides lie. here is a good example of how real costs - that ultimately will be passed to consumers - are incurred by rash statement from politicians.

UK Economy shrinks by 0.2% in Q2 2019

Quite a surprise today that the ONS has the UK economy shrinking by 0.2% in the second quarter.


Just a couple of days ago the services PMI read came out as 54.5, well above fifty and as the largest part of the economy, normally enough to carry the overall GDP numbers up.


However, a further drop in construction and also a drop in manufacturing (where stockpiling for a March Brexit boosted Q1) has been enough to see the economy slide into negative territory.


There is no much good news to be had here, with another Brexit shock due to hit in Q4 there won't be any recovery in Construction or much in Manufacturing - which is hugely hurt by the disaster of diesel car sales which disproportionately UK factories were set up to produce.


Services can help to keep the UK out of outright recession, but it will be touch and go as Politics is set to head into meltdown in September and that itself will temper optimism and business investment, as well we job hiring.


The UK really needs to go sign a Brexit deal and move on. Hard Brexit, on the back of what will already be an ailing economy now, will push us into a nasty recession. Not 2008 levels, but certainly early 90's pain.


The FTSE100 will hold up due to dollar earnings, the 250 and AIM are going to fare less well.

UK really can grow Unicorns

Following on from Andrew's comments yesterday, a piece from The Times:


Britain is creating more $1 billion technology companies than any other country apart from the United States and China, a study has found.
Over the past two decades UK-based entrepreneurs have built 72 companies, including 13 in the past year, that have topped the ten-figure threshold — known as “unicorns” in the tech industry.
That compares with 29 in Germany, Britain’s closest European rival, and India with 26. Over that period, the US and China have created 703 and 206 respectively, according to research for the government’s digital economy council published today.
Investors have poured about $5 billion into British tech start-ups since January, reinforcing the country’s status as Europe’s leading high-tech nation, the research said. More than a third of Europe’s fastest-growing tech companies…


For once, we are getting it right - far more by luck than judgement. The UK is doing very well with tech start-up's. There was a time at the start of Brexit when it looked like Amsterdam and Berlin would clean-up (Paris as ever talks a good game but really...let alone now in Gillets Jaunes land).


But no, the UK and London have powered on. Powered by a few key things, as ever hard to emulate. One is the ease of working in the UK compared to the rest of the EU. Another is the ability to keep your money when you sell through generous EIS schemes, another is the ease of language and living in the UK and London, also that our economy is post-industrial and this suits the new tech start-ups. Finally and the killer is the ease of access to Finance. Only Silicon Valley, New York and London can cope with global Venture Capital needs. As such, the flow to the EU stopped and reversed.


Now we have a nascent industry in Fintech, Legaltech, Martech - you name it the UK is developing it in the professional services space but also healthcare. Brexit will have zero impact on this and luckily the Government is too pre-occupied to think about taxing or regulating it to death yet. So for now, happy days!

Is reduced labour supply a bad thing?

I have read a lot of late, some hidden, some more obvious like this, about the sharp drop of immigrants applying for job in the last year or so.


Up to 100,000 people fewer have come to the UK over the past year. This is undoubtedly having an effect at the very bottom of the work pyramid, but also higher up. At the bottom, it means agricultural workers, shop assitants and amazon packers are all able to see a small upturn in the wages they can demand.


Meanwhile, even as the BBC said, applications are a mere 20 per position rather than 25. To me this does not show much of a crisis. I have also been more aware of late of the situation in the USA. There, unemployment is at 3% and there is a starting to be a real war for talent rather than the high falutin' discussions about such a thing that are present in the Harvard Business Review.


Higher wages, means higher costs of production which could lead to higher prices overall and inflation. How a little bit of inflation is bad when the entire private and public economy is in a huge debt position escapes me a little - but you do have to be careful with the inflation genie.


For me the main issue will be how time plays out on the situation. Take the housing market, a big constraint is lack of supply, but the construction industry is at full tilt and is hurting the most from lack of supply and higher labour costs. So a labour shortage here will also reduce the supply of houses in the short and medium term. But reducing 100,000 people a year coming to the UK also lowers demand for housing in the long-term. It could balance out over time, but it could also mean a price squeeze on housing and rents in the short-term and balance in the longer term. Impossible really to predict.


Still, whoever voted Brexit for higher wages already has their reward.

Silly season in full swing

So this week, in review....


Labour - WE ARE NOT ANTI-SEMITES, we just like to reserve the right to call Israeli's Nazi's and make comparisons to the Holocaust every now and again. Really, what's the harm in that?


Boris - Hold my Beer


Boris - I defend the right of muslim women to dress like letterboxes, even though this is a bit of a dog-whistle because its boring on the back benches. Bit of japes, sure nothing will come of it.


Labour - Quick, call all Tories Islamaphobes, maybe people will finally forget about our anti-Semitism! (Handily, this doubles down on our identity politics voter segregation - hooray!)


Theresa May - Fuck I hate Boris, quick, pile in an call him an Islamaphobe, link it to Hard Brexit, conduct an investigation, remind everyone how all leavers are racist.




So the theme for this year's silly season is the competitive identity politics Olympics. Pick on some groups, laud others, accuse everyone else of being discriminatory whilst sitting on your own moral mound surrounded by fawning acolytes. When in fact as shown this week, there is zero morality involved and the entire confecture is created for personal mud-slinging. The lowest of low politics


Don't know about the readership, but this is a truly terrible look. I can't see how a move to pure focus on identity politics can be good for the Western Democracies in the long-term....


After all this is what Hitler did....oh, bugger.....

Trade War hots up

We can tell the talk of trade wars is having an effect, as the global stock markets are looking a little gloomy. Having said that, they always look gloomy in the summer and non-algo trading is a record lows in the markets.


But nonetheless, this trade barrier stuff by Trump is bad for the long-term global economy. Of course, there maybe some valid reasons to stop dumping of steel and agricultural products - but really this is what the WTO is for. Especially when it comes to European vs US trade. It is one thing saying China never complies so you need a more robust route, but the Western democracies always do.


For the UK, the importance of trade and the vision of the UK as able to once again straddle US and EU positions is becoming more attractive. Of course we would need a competent Government to play the trade politics which is a shame as there is none available, but at least the principle is there.


On balance though, the US going against the international norms of trade is bad for the UK as a trading nation and one that needs respect for global rules and norms. Without these there is a big downside for any business trying to complete cross-border deals.

So whilst the US issue highlights one of the weaknesses of the EU, it still poses questions as to how the UK could benefit and take advantage of any upsides.

Key themes emerging one week on from the UK election

1. DUP - clearly demanding not only pork-barrel money from the Tories but also anti-Sinn Feinn policies, which has stopped the confidence and supply discussions for now (why did May go to HM when she could not form a Government?).


2. Hammond Speech tonight - the Remainers are back and out to stop Brexit or make it a non-Brexit by leaving only tiny bits of the EU. Sadly, this is a real long-term pain as the EU won't want this and remainers will get angry when they realise the EU is telling us to pack our bags and leave. They will blame the UK rather than the EU - terrible for the Tories who are already in a poor electoral position.


3. McDonnell advocates street action and anti-democracy - Despite losing the election last week, the Shadow Chancellor managed to advocate a 1 million person street demonstration to get the Tories out yesterday. Such rhetoric is borderline legal in my view, as it is promoting the overthrow of Her Majesty's Government. More worrying, having monstered Labour but realised now that they may form the next Government, the press has decided to give a free pass now to the radical left to expound whatever it likes without criticism. This bodes very ill for the Country and the next election.




In summary, f*ck me what a shit show.

UK: Clarity of Power

23rd June - Power Vacuum


23rd June - Netherlands Prime Minister - Britain is basically an economic and politically failed state




...18 days later, new Prime Minister announced, Brexiteer leaders defenestrated but then will be picked to lead Brexit in a more pliable way.


It is pretty good going and demonstrates how quickly the UK can move on large challenges. Spain is about to go for its 3rd General Election of the year to try and resolve its issues.


This is a key reason why the UK will remain the pre-eminent destination for capital and investment in times of stress - because the world sees a determined Country that deals with some (if not all..) of its problems when compared to everywhere else. And does it without resorting to authoritarianism but within the confines of representative democracy.

China/UK - the importance of jobs and labour supply

"Supply side factors are also important. China's working age population has started to shrink and the number of new labor force joiners is declining. The UNPD forecasts China's working age population to decline by about eight million during the next five years, compared to flat in the past five years. Of course, China's labor supply to the non-farming sector will continue to rise as surplus labor from the agricultural sector continues to be transferred out. However, the decline in working age population does provide more room for such transfers in the next few years even with growth slowing.
Changes in both labor demand and supply mean China faces less employment pressure than a decade or even a few years ago, and needs less growth to maintain labor market stability. Assuming continued modest gains in labor productivity, and taking into account the structural upturn of labor intensive service sector, we estimate that 6-7% growth in non- farming GDP and 6-6.8% growth in overall GDP in 2015-16 would be sufficient to generate more than 11 million new non- farming jobs each year, a level we think is associated with a general stability in the labor market. Over the longer time horizon, and as labor transfer progresses further and if services growth speeds up, sub-6% growth would be sufficient for labor market stability."

I came across the above quote whilst doing some research recently. It is a section for a review of China's economic prospects for next year. This was the positive part where they try to suggest with low growth in labour supply, China will more easily be able to maintain political stability.

It is always entertaining reading an economists view on political impacts, as they can never get it right.

However, more interesting is the reversed nature of the argument deployed as compared to the one we see the Government and  media outlets push in the UK. Here, we are told, immigration is good and adds to the economy and so social stability. This report on China suggests the opposite, a reduction in labour market supply will help wages and promote social stability and even allow China to cope with a lower GDP growth rate than in the past.

Basically a nice example that economists and others can theorise on whatever they like and take differing views accordingly. Somehow I don't think we would ever see this reasoning applied to the UK situation on the BBC though!

 

France and UK future united?

France is today battling against the Eurozone. Being part of the Euro means that the Government has to justify its debts to a third party in a way that does not happen in the UK. Depending on your view this could be a good thing, like mega-OBR or a bad thing in that is undermines the sovereignty of a nation.

Either way, France is making excuses about its budget deficit and its inability to hit the 3% or lower target demanded by Euro membership. France is due to miss by 1% every year until 2017. Oh for the UK to be in this position, our budget deficit is 6.5% and none of the UK politicians are making any real noises about how to reduce this beyond saying cuts are coming after the election!

That France has higher public net debt to start with makes things more difficult. But the truth is that France has tax rates that overall are not too dis-similar to the UK, only about 2% points higher on balance. However, with its vast public sector, powerful unions and left-wing Government, no one is in a position to force real change; or even to want it.

This same situation will likely appear in the UK after the next election. A Labour government led by Ed Milliband will have no appetite for real austerity. Taxes can only be raised a little given their historically high point has already been reached - there are severe diminishing returns for pumping up taxes from here.

Reforming or cutting services will not be on the ideological agenda so instead they will hope that economic growth outstrips the debt growth. However, this is unlikely to happen as the high point for growth in the current cycle is around now in all likelihood, not in 2015/16 when instead you would expect a slight slowdown or, if unlucky, recession.

Also in France, President Hollande is very unpopular, with the right wing Marie Le Pen seen as the main challenger - this surely gives hope to UKIP too in the UK that given the above set of circumstances it can replace the Tories as the party of opposition in time for 2020 when a sad Labour Government will be beaten out of sight in the election - having delivered a dog's dinner of hollow promises for its 5 year term.

Contrarian Indicator: Albermale and Bond?

Here we go nearly Xmas, everyone is short of money for all those extra presents and to try and keep the kids happy. It's a the classic time to borrow money and get further into debt. Well, certainly in my household it is an annual tradition.

And yet today we can see that pawn broker Albermale and Bond is having a very rough time of it indeed. Their business needs restructuring, the profits have collapsed and they are having to sell shops. Of course, hubris as always has a nice role to play, just when Gold went into a price bubble they double down by opening more stores.

Now that gold has fallen back, to still historically high prices, they have been hit. It's hard to say what effect Wonga and other payday lenders are having too, after all, if you can borrow without offering goods as physial security then from a personal perspective that is a much better thing to do. Still, surely there is a supply of gold and unwanted watches for them to suck up?

Perhaps then it is a good indicator that the economic recovery is having some small impact - if only that the desperate are at least one notch less desperate than they have been for the past 5 years or so.

Arise Lord Quango....

It was a valiant effort in defense of the Monarchy yesterday by BQ, but it is not going to wash with me:

No, no and no again to Consitutional Monarchy.

A nice try Bill but I am not falling for it. My argument is not about money as I entirely agree with you that the cost/benefit of Monarchy vs some sort of Presidency will probably work out better for the Monarchy.

My belief rests on the social impacts and thus, sadly, I am even for once of Mark Wadsworth's side even though I am a committed Home Owener.
The biggest issue today in the UK is social mobility. Poor people struggle to get on and one of the key reasons behind this is the built into our social structure. The people at the top are born into wealth and power and literally cannot be removed. It's a terrible incentive for the people in the Country and creates and feeds the terrible obsession with class that blights our nation.

The US simply does not have this. The Kardahsians are royalty today, for five minutes, the Clintons were too, it will be someone else next week. Also the kardashians are no marks, I think this is a good thing. They will be replaced, it is not some dynasty that will last 1000 years.
Finally, we need a president to have some power, where the Queen has none the Prime Minister is too powerful, a President could have powers to block, legitimately, unjust legislation should it ever be attempted by future extreme Governments of any colour.
Finally, to the comments, people say imagine President Blair! OK but imagine President Boris or even President Sugar. Surely more useful than someone who goes to the Races and opens the odd school. I would even vote one day for a President  Prince George, why not, as long as we can vote and he has to campaign.

Are there really votes in Reality?

David Cameron's bold statements today on welfare look set to pave a new way forward for the political debate on public spending.

One thing the Government has grasped is that we are spending as a nation far too much money on Government sponsored handouts of one form or another. With the deficit stubbornly refusing to move, so holy cows will have to be slaughtered to right the Country's balance sheet.

The basic tenet that some of the more egregious benefits such as constant support for those who choose to have many children, support for those who could live at home etc should not really be that controversial. However, it always will be as the Government is taking away free money potentially - no one is going to be happy about that. Worse, with no tax cuts in sigh for the masses of taxpayers, this could well be a policy with no beneficiaries. Those who lose money are angry and those who still pay high taxes are still unhappy.

This is an unfortunate dilemma for any government in the UK which needs to be faced in the near future. benefits have been pushed beyond the means of the Country to pay them. This has allowed Labour to develop its own client base of voters - which of course is why this was allowed to happen in the first place.

The killer question is are the general public able to see the basic economic rational behind these sorts of policies. Or will the opposition and media whip up a frenzy of the poor being attacked by rich Bullingdon Tories?

Whether or not these proposals go anywhere, this is simply the key battleground in UK politics for the next 5 years. Either the reality-deniers win by promises of pure populism and dismal financial management or the conservatives win and manage to roll-back the state to something just-about-affordable. Sadly, I think the money at the moment would have to go on the reality deniers.

It's Thurdsday - QE day - or time for something else?

That's right folks, those kindly people at the Bank of England are lining up today to hand out another £50 billion of freshly minted electronic notes to had over to holds of UK Gilts - that will be our banks.

It's true, our poor banks desperately need to deleverage to try and get them back to health, without it they are not going to help the economy get back on its feet.

Today though I find myself in total agreement with Jeremy Warner of the Telegraph - which is rarely the case. But he is on the money today. The Big Issue in the UK is debt - Government debt, private debt and banking debt. We are awash with debt and the only solution is to reduce it.

Now government austerity to help get the debts down and we have tax rises too and the banks are deleveraging. The net effect of this is to push us into recession. This is going to last for years, at least another three but probably another five.

The Bank of England think they can speed up the process by offering 'free' money to help the banks deleverage quicker. However at some point the issue of free money to the banks is going to create a new bubble. When financing costs are so low for such a long time some terrible investment decisions are going to be made. Worse, when we try to normalise interest rates, lots of people and companies are going to go bust - creating a new recessionary wave. This is known as the Japan experience.

The US is doing a little better, because people on the whole have handed back the keys and walked away from their debts - this means the deleveraging has happened faster. Our policy is not having the same effect, deleveraging is going slowly because house prices and other debt laden assets are not falling in value and banks are not foreclosing - this helps to keep the economy limp along, but not to have the blow out which could lead to recovery.

The answer is not a Labour style government spending splurge - more debt is the last thing we need. If people won't walk away from their debts, then on a national scale we have to force it. We need to devalue the pound by 25%  - not to hard to do, let's just monetise the QE we have already done.

Devaluation is harsh but has the fairness of affecting everyone equally so it is pseudo democratic - except savers but they are losing anyway with negative interest rates. Inflation will spike, but at last we will be able to raise rates to fight it.

It's the tough love solution for a hardcore debt addicted Country.

How well do you score on the new UK citizenship test.

PATENTLY has put up a link to the Official practice citizenship test

C@W have another one

Your citizenship test starts now

A} Who holds the record for the most appearances in Eastenders

1. Ian Beale
2. Pat Butcher
3. Lofty
4. Mark Fowler

B} Which tube line is generally regarded as the worst

1. District
2. Bakerloo
3. Northern
4. Central

C} Where does the English Assembly meet

1. York
2. Leeds
3. Swindon
4. Nowhere

D} If you need to report a crime what should you do

1. Dial 999
2. Dial 0847 number for out of hours police service
3. Write to your MP
4. Visit the appropriate police post on the days when it is open

E} If you believe you have swine Flu you should

1. Call NHS direct
2. Stay at home and do nothing
3. Phone the newspapers
4. Visit doctor to obtain Tamiflu

F} To get your child into one of the best schools you should

1. Live within the catchment area, have siblings at the school already, have special needs.
2. Pretend to live in the catchment area
3. Child has an excellent record of academic and social achievement
4. Study hard, take out a loan, get a PhD, work long hours in the city, marry similar,take out giant mortgage, put children into private education.

G} Who won Britain’s got talent in 2009

1. Paul Potts
2. Susan Boyle
3. Diversity
4. Gordon Brown
   

H} Britain went to war with Iraq in 2003 for which of the following reasons

1. To prevent Al Qaeda operating there
2. To topple an evil dictator
3. To prevent weapons of mass destruction being used against the UK
4. No real reason

I} A British train is considered LATE if it is delayed in excess of

1. 2 minutes
2. 15 minutes
3. 10 minutes
4. 25 minutes

J} The ruling party {Labour} controls how many of the 34 county councils in England

1. 0
2. 26
3. 7
4. 33

K} The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom needs to be elected by the people.

1. True
2. False

L} A bank holiday in the UK is usually spent

1. In traffic
2. At the sea side
3. At a DIY store
4. In traffic on the way to a DIY store by the seaside

M} The average wait in an A+E hospital before seeing anyone

1. 5 minutes
2. 15 minutes
3. 4 hours
4. 24 hours

N} Tax Payers in the North East have seen their council tax bills__ since 1997

1. Double
2. Triple
3. Quadruple
4. Half

O} The Public Spending revue is held

1. Every year
2. Every other year
3. Every three years
4. No longer held
   

P} The main religion of the UK is

1. Shopping
2. Sex
3. Christianity
4. Football

Q} In England it is traditional to drink

1. Vodka and Red Bull
2. Bacardi Breezer
3. J2O and Southern Comfort
4. To Excess

R} In England the unemployed are also called

1. Chavs
2. Property developers
3. Bankers
4. Estate Agents
   

S} In the UK lunch is taken

1. Between 1pm -2pm
2. Between 2pm- 2.05pm
3. At the desk
4. Lunch is for wimps

T} In the UK people are encouraged to eat five portions a day. What does this mean?

1. No one really knows
2. Mars bar, cheese stick, crisps, Coke, Big Mac
3. Five unspecified amounts of fruit and veg
4. Five portions of chips

EACH CORRECT ANSWER SCORES 5 PTS. YOU MUST SCORE 70 TO PASS THE CITIZENSHIP TEST

IF YOU FAIL, NOT MUCH WILL HAPPEN.

Answers A.1- B.3 C.4 D.4 E.2 F.4 G.3 H.4 I.3 J.1 K.2 L.1,2,3OR4. M.2{for an assessment} N.1 O.4 P.1 Q.4 R.{any} S.3 T.1 or 3.