Those Oh-So-Rational Germans

A primary go-to website for energy buffs is the excellent Energy Matters blog run by Euan Mearns and Roger Andrews, two first-rate analysts who somehow find time to keep their tremendous material pumping out for free.  Go and have a poke around, if you haven't been there before.  One of their regular features is a handy news round-up each week, from which we obtain this neat evidence of collective madness in Germany.

Yes, (a) the Germans are big fans of their ridiculous 'energy policy' (which sees them paying extravagant electricity prices), and at the same time (b) German CO2 emissions continue to rise.  Expensive and futile virtue-signalling by anyone's standards.

I am sure Greek citizens are equally delighted that their economy is in thrall to German bankers. 

(Meanwhile, in other news Cuadrilla et al are on the march and the shale drilling is underway in N.England ...)

ND

Whatever happened to the UK Shale dream?

 

One of the saner Greenies, Baroness Worthington, has today come out to say that Fracking is not the end of the world and that the Environmentalists were wrong to be so actively hateful of it. In an outbreak of near sanity she noted that Britain would need gas for decades to come and that if we did not frack it ourselves we would only be importing it from Qatar anyway.

Of course, Greenpeace et al just moan that all greenhouse gas is bad and that we should be aiming for clean renewables anyway within 10 years. To call that a fantastical position is an insult to fantasy.

Baroness Worthington does thought have a nice pay off line in that any Fracking should be done with Carbon capture and storage equipment so that no green house emissions are created; as we know, there is no actual carbon capture and storage technology available and this remains another Greenie pipedream on the same level as imagining massive tidal power stations out of the text books and into operation.

It did make me realise though that whilst the collapse of oil prices has done little to affect the US shale output the UK output remains at, er, zero. Three years ago the Government was championing the shale revolution. In between times there have been a couple of drills and lots of protests by Greens and some chicken local planning offices. In June the Government moved to make planing applications more fast track than previously; but this shows how nascent the industry still is. Truth be told it is still in the planning and theory stages only after several years of pushing.

With market prices unlikely to recover in the near future all but those like Caudrilla (who have no other assets to play with) are not hurrying to move things forward. Which is a shame, because cancelling the disastrous Hinkley Point project and pouring the saved funds into the Fracking industry would prove bounteous for the UK in terms of lowering energy cots and risks for the forseeable future.

Surveying Shale at the Start of Round 2

This blog isn't going to become a shale cheer-leader forum (go to NoHotAir for that) but our friend 'Hovis' has taken the time to bake a lengthy rejoinder (in the Comments) which deserves acknowledgement and response.  Echoing the 'phoney war' idiom from my earlier post, Hovis fairly recognises that Round 1 has finished, so now we contemplate the state of play at the start of Round 2.  I'm going to take his/her main points head-on rather than endlessly refer back to previous postings, and here we go.  Switch off now if the whole subject leaves you numb. 

I have not seen why, in a Hitch-Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy type of way you believe it is a “Good Thing”

What I consider a Good Thing is the following:

•  that private companies should be allowed to establish, at their own expense and risk, whether there are shale gas (and/or other 'unconventional') resources, in economically viable quantities in the UK and elsewhere
• that this should be done in a safe and environmentally responsible way, under Proper Regulations
• that bullshit on the subject from any party should be exposed to reasoned and factual analysis
• Rule of Law should prevail etc etc

It may not be a Bad Thing that local communities see some direct share of economic benefit; and of course the planning process shouldn't be subverted by this (see Proper Regs passim).  For the avoidance of doubt, it is however a Bad Thing - not least because totally unnecessary - that tax breaks are being given (this just adds to my already poor opinion of Osborne).  As you surely know, around these parts we are generally hostile to the socialisation of normal business risk (again, in this case, completely unnecessary).  And, as you kindly acknowledge, I have always said it is Bad that the regulatory regime is so flimsy, though not, I think, entirely non-existent as you suggest - see final point below.

And finally, of course, I think it would be a Great Thing if plentiful economically viable shale gas were to be found.  By 'economically viable' I include bearing the full costs of producing the stuff in the safest and cleanest ways known to man - which isn't some utopian fantasy, it just means doing things properly.

I utterly disagree with you that anti arguments are mendacious

And I have never said that all of them are: there are several that have a grounding in fact, and need proper response.  But many of the 'environmental' scare stories are indeed mendacious; along with other crazy statements like 'there isn't enough water', or 'the UK isn't big enough'.  Space here doesn't permit.

"Shale will bring major benefits to the UK" [is] doubly mendacious

It is absolutely fair to say that some purely speculative tripe is being talked.  No-one even knows if any gas is there !  "74,000 jobs" is, of course, a finger-in-the-air exercise - I have no time for such stuff.  BUT - if  there is even a fraction of what is seen as the potential, there will indeed be huge benefits to the UK:

• gas prices will soften, if not fall significantly (big topic, for another time)
• to exactly the same extent the price doesn't fall (because of exports at the margin to continental Europe), tax revenues will increase
• there will be a boost to UK jobs, industry, expertise and GDP generally
• we gain greater security of supply in gas, a commodity we need in large quantities for the next several decades in all meaningful UK energy scenarios
• we demonstrate the fallacy of 'renewables being cheaper in the long run'
• plus a huge increase in PC Plod's overtime (whoops, sorry !)

At what point do yo [sic] recognise there will be no regulation Nick? ... My question to you is, if there is no regulation should Fracking go ahead on a large scale in this country ?

My answer is - No !    OK ?

ND

Shale Gas: Phoney War Over

Right from the start the C@W community, above and below the Comments line, have been solidly in favour of the UK exploiting whatever its shale gas resource turns out to be: frack on! say we.  

We also recognised, right from the off, that an abundance of shale would be the death-knell of conventional Green arguments (many of which have been swallowed whole by DECC) for renewables being somehow 'cheaper in the long run' - they'd have to retreat to a purely doctrinaire, faith-based case.  As such, they'd hurl everything they have against the shale industry ever getting off the ground, let alone up from under the ground.  Mendacious anti-shale propaganda is just the soft side of this, but there was bound to be a tougher manifestation. As we said years ago, PC Plod (who sometimes fails to protect entire power stations, complete with security staff and perimeter wire) could therefore find himself fairly well stretched trying to police hundreds of small, dispersed and vulnerable sites the length and breadth of the land.

Finally, while we are in told-you-so mode, we said that the often embarrassingly amateurish Cuadrilla and other tiddlers who were making the running were merely stalking-horses for the big players. 

Some have despaired of the government's resolve in the matter - indeed, we may sometimes have been a bit frustrated too - but hey, once again GDP trumps GHG !  And so it comes to pass.

• government is really working hard - even if clumsily - across all departments clearing obstacles to large-scale exploration
• big players - most notably the French, GdF-Suez and Total, who are banned from shale development in their own country - are buying in
• the LibDems are officially onside, even if some of them can't hide their skepticism
• and yes, even Labour is now formally on board, whilst inevitably registering some qualifications to its support

This is quite a moment for the Anti camp, seeing the Pro forces assembling on the hillside in front of them at last.  The Antis are a heterogeneous bunch.  On the 'green-red' flank, naturally all the air-headed swampies are milling around.  They are often deployed as berserkers in the fray, but the leadership lies elsewhere. Keeping an eye on the No Dash For Gas website since their extraordinary debut at West Burton, it has been clear that there are some heavy-duty professional troublemakers in their ranks, along with academics and genuinely clever people, all highly motivated, whose capacity for mischief will prove to be extensive.  (As part of the joined-up government planning, the police have been tooling up seriously for this match ever since Balcombe, but their native brain-power and intelligence-gathering will be stretched by the smart tacticians they are facing, GCHQ notwithstanding.)

But if that was the end of the matter, the fertile popular ground that revolutionaries always seek would be entirely missing, and the whole affair would be just a glorified Hunt Saboteur affair.  The really interesting factor is that village by village, a serious middle-class Anti movement is gathering.  Partly nimby, partly countryside-idealist, partly soft-green, it already has more traction than the anti-windfarm lobby.  It's quite a network (trust me on this one), and is replete with 'sensible' experts who know how to run effective planning-permission campaigns, as well as the kind of well-heeled, time-on-their-hands, county-class enthusiasts who have real clout.

The front presented by all these Anti forces is by no means monolithic.  In part, that's its strength, but of course it's a vulnerability too: the county types quickly fall out with the rent-a-mobs after a few noisy, dirty days of skirmishing in the lanes and fields.  Also, as every despairing revolutionary knows, the bourgeoisie always disappoints when the going gets truly radical.  It may be, for example, that the current government multi-disciplinary onslaught (which, as well as bundling Labour onside, has already ended the initial knee-jerk Anti attitude in the Beeb, whose coverage is now studiously balanced) seems responsible - and determined - enough to convince a lot of folks that the Man in Whitehall probably knows best, that it's happening whether we like it or not, and that a bit of extra revenue from business rates and local royalties won't go amiss.  (Look at how the water companies are rushing to join forces with the nascent shale industry.)

IMHO there is a simple step the government could take that will be very helpful in defusing the genteel Anti movement which, to repeat myself, is really gathering steam and is underestimated at their peril.  The Environment Agency is truly too feeble to represent a genuine regulatory safeguard on the very real potential environmental aspects.   Osborne, in particular, seems to think it is clever to take short-cuts here. That is very short-sighted: there is no shortage of money in this game to institute an impeccable, world-class regulatory regime that will satisfy all reasonable folk.

In any event, it's game on.  Will this be Poll Tax Riots 2 ?  Miners Strike 2 ?  or a re-run of the Huntingdon Life Sciences nonsense ?  Could get interesting either way.  Let's hope there is actually some gas down there ...

ND

Shale and Water: The Story Continues

Now this is more like it: 

The water company United Utilities is in talks with shale gas explorer Cuadrilla over locations for fracking and is interested in letting the company explore on its land.

Well of course.  Instead of wittering on about potential groundwater contamination, United has spotted the fantastic potential for its primary product - and its wider portfolio of land and skills.  Home run !

And exactly what we had in mind two years ago.  Game on.

ND

Shale-tastic scares

And lo they came to pass. Today it is quango Water UK railing against potential shale gas fracking. Now of course the highly regulated utilities are not going to benefit from other companies making money, so they have no incentive not to complain about fracking.

Indeed, they do have valid concerns about potential damage to the water table. It is true to say that much frackin in the US is done far away from population centres, major water pipes and infrastrcuture which is not the case in the South East of England.

So of course, Caudrilla and their ilk will have to plan on different and more expensive ways of fracking to make sure their enviromental impact is limited to acceptable levels.

Together with news for the Government giving tax breaks to Shale Gas companies, err, in line with what everyone in the industry gets (and lets face it it, in upstream industry the net tax rates is 63% last time I checked, so the breaks are always off-set in successful cases of extraction). It means that Shale exlporation and development is proceeding nicely.

All good then, as we desperately need this supply of gas to help boost the economy and keep the lights on when we have months like now of NO WIND, which is not doing great things for the useless London array and other such greenwash projects.