Well, with Brown pulling out of having an election on 2007 we can now think about when the next likely date will be.
For 2008 it seems the odds are against it given that Brown has just turned down the opportunity of having one now. However 2008 is the also likely to be the last year of any real growth in the economy and the time for a referendum (or not) on the EU treaty; so there may yet be an outside chance.
In 2009 we will be in a very different economic position. Companies will be finding it hard to make money, the government will be trying to cut spending to match the tax receipts and this will be upsetting the unions. In addition consumer spending will be down as people finally try to repay all the debt they have taken out. One outrider is that a significant percentage of people in negative equity that will drag down the housing sector too.
So that leaves 2010, when an election will have to be called come what may. If we are lucky the economy may be showing signs of picking up; equally if we have followed a lax monetary policy the recession may have been put off until then. It will be difficult for Alistair Darling to actually put off the recession long enough for an election. If they do manage it then it is goodnight for whoever wins the election as the economy will be in shreds.
So overall my money is on 2010 and 3 more years of Gordon Brown as PM.
Tomorrow I will look over the Comprehensive Spending Review and what hat means for our taxpaying finances over the next 3 years.