Monday, 17 March 2008

Emergency times


The FTSE100 fell over 200 points today or 3.16%, taking the losses for the year close to 20%. A great start to the year so far for us all. Together with a housing market slump there is precious little to invest in save gold at the moment.

In a significant move today the Bank of England stepped in to push another £5 billion into the money markets to keep some semblance of order. The issue was 5x over-subscribed.

All I can say is it may be a case of wishful thinking on this week's vote that the leader so far is no more UK casualties. (The market was led down by HBOS - do none of you read my posts?!)

Still, this reaction an Alistair Darling budget is even more than i expected; I am glad we only have them once a year!

19 comments:

Jeremy Jacobs said...

It'll blow over within 12 months. Luckily I don't need to borrow £10M or have thousands stashed away at RBS or elsewhere.
I'm all right Jack!

Richard Elliot said...

Are you revising up your predictions for Gold?

Edland said...

The stock market crash suits me quite nicely as a newbie pension investor!

I still don't understand this liquidity injection business. Surely the Bank lends enough money to keep rates at the base rate? That amount must vary hugely from day to day so why the headlines about the "odd" £5bn. I am confused.

SACKERSON said...

JJ: two years, is my guess.

CityUnslicker said...

JJ - I like to be an optimist belive it or not, but these are not encouraging times. The FED and regulators are running out of tools to avoid a depression. I am with Sackerson, things will improve in 2010.

CityUnslicker said...

Richard - with the dollar in steep decline Gold could hit $1500 this year.

CityUnslicker said...

Ed - that is true, for a long-term investor now is not such a terrible time to get in, although the dip could still be double digit percentage points further.

The bank does not normally print money to give to banks, but rather lends against assets.

Mark Wadsworth said...

As I reminded you all a while back, the FTSE 100 falls or remains flat while Labour is in power. So it'll go back down to 3,700 over the next couple of years (don't forget that it reached this level in 2003!).

Edland said...

I see the printing presses have had the desired effect on the exchange rate - biggest devaluation since White Wednesday!

Real Schadenfreude said...

Swiss franc doing well....

Dr Ed said...

So, as a new investor with a small amount of cash to invest (and is relatively risk averse) what sort of stocks would you suggest investing in?

I’m currently thinking finance companies which rely on the banks who are too big to be damaged by the reduction in business. Like Experian for example. Their share price is about 340p now, down from 680 in November. It should be back upto at least 500 in a year’s time I think…

Real Schadenfreude said...

@dr ed: Stocks? You'd be better off investing in Northern Crock! 6.5% return on term deposits and all 100% backed by the government (sorry, taxpayer).

Edland said...

With hyperinflation just around the corner it's stocks, London property, or just spend it.

Steven_L said...

I wish I hadn't listened to you (and countless others) now old gold CU, the old cliche 'When Mickey Mouse is telling you to buy stocks get out' sprung to mind the other day when BBC news annouced the $1,000 mark as a headline and people in the office started discussing it.

I believe I was predicting some selling / shorting coming up the other day.

Steven_L said...

dr ed,

why not put 90% of your cash away safely and put 10% in a high risk trading account where you can go short too?

You can only lose 10% of your capital but might make 50% on it over the year?

CityUnslicker said...

Steven L - Gold has a way to go yet, but you are right to say the peak must be well past by now!

Dr Ed - shares are very dangerous right now, although cash is trash too. Bonds are a good haven - the government will be issuing plenty for the next couple of years!

Steven_L said...

I was right to suggest shorting it! But I chickened out.

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