Monday, 31 March 2008

EU Energy Policy: How to Run the 3-Minute Mile

If someone asks: how could an athlete run the mile in 3 minutes?, it is arithmetically correct to reply: by running 30% faster. But this would not be a satisfactory answer.

And that’s the only way one can view accounts that purport to show how ‘Big Bill’ Barosso’s energy scheme for 2020 stack up.

Witness: one of CU’s top Sunday stories yesterday was an article on this report, snappily entitled Compliance Costs for Meeting the 20% Renewable Target in 2020. As a service to C@W readers I have sifted through its 156 pages of graphs, charts and tables. Now as we know, forecasts of this type are basically horoscopes with numbers: but what numbers they are !

52% of the renewables will be biofuels: wind-power a mere 10.6%. Sorry greenies, we’ll still be burning stuff.

70% of biofuels will be imports, mostly coming from maize, wheat and S.E.Asian palm oil – impact on food production not quantified. The report’s authors admit that further analysis is required as to whether global biofuels markets are up to this task. (They might like to ask whether would-be food eaters are up for it as well.)

Although the UK’s ‘burden-share’ is to meet a mere 15% of energy demand from renewables, compared to the EU average of 20%, it will incur by far the most costs: € 5 to 6.7 billion p.a. by 2020, as compared to € 3 bn for each of France and Germany. (For aficionados of reality-checking, take a look at the graph at Fig 14 for implausibility.)

Lastly, this little gem: the cost of complying with the transport [sector] obligation is 10 times higher than the cost of meeting the electricity and heating targets, and the carbon savings themselves are far less certain”.

Whoopee. As we’ve said many times before, if any of this is going to happen there would need to be some serious signs of massive efforts being taken right now. Which we don’t see …

ND

22 comments:

Edland said...

The answer is quite simple: the third world must stop eating, we must stop moving around and turn off our lights and heating.

Nick Drew said...

EdLand (and MarkWadsworthLand) are places with very decisive leadership !

Bill Quango MP said...

Mr Drew
Please go to Mr Dale's blog on
The Real Cost of Wind Power.

They need some help with the comments.

dearieme said...

You can borrow my spare bike.

Edland said...

...and then Edland woke up and remembered that

a) "climate change" happens with or without CO2

b) we have plenty of natural resources other than wind (not that HMG would know it)

c) we aren't going to go back to Zimbabwean standards of living unless Brown has anything to do with it

Nick Drew said...

Mr Q - thanks for the pointer, I fear I was a bit late to that little party

Ed:

a) yes, but this particular climate-change cycle is significantly more extreme than any previous: and man-made CO2 is the only logical explanation (dons flak jacket)

b) yup, and the coal lobby is desperately trying to get its voice heard above the clamour from nukes, wind and biofuels - & they all want bloody subsidies !

c) I have bad news for you ...

Real Schadenfreude said...

If they think we can generate 10% of our energy from American wheat they really have lost the plot.

Sadly WE don't have a lot of the natural resources required. The people that do, we don't like very much. Not only that, they have learnt that it is better to take our means of production in return for all the gas and oil rather than the output of that production. Which means if we carry on as we have been they will own everything. Coal can only be the answer for so long. What will we do after the coal is gone? It may be better to think about that now rather than later, as part of an overall strategy to make best use of the coal supplies we can secure.

Mark Wadsworth said...

ND, thank you for saving your readers the effort of reading that guff, 'tis much appreciated. Did you at any stage suddenly feel the urge to bang your head on the table?

Schadenfreude said...

ND: I had a worrying thought about the biofuels business in the US. As you know, the US, the worlds wheat bowl, has suddenly developed an interest in biofuels technology and is building many biofuels factories, taking in a lot of wheat and pushing up wheat prices enormously. The question is "Why"? There doesn't seem to be a huge market for these biofuels (which is perhaps why the EU is so interestd in buying them from the Americans...). Could it be that "peak oil" really is imminent? Does Pres. Bush know something we don't? He has claimed that the US should reduce its dependency on oil by 2025 - but that's 17 years away. Could it be that "peak oil" will come far sooner? The US knows whether Saudi is running out of oil - it runs most of the Saudi oil fields. And Saudi has shipped vast oceans of oil.... until now. Many of the Middle East reserves in places like Iran and Iraq are already seriously depleted.

If the US knows that peak oil is imminent, but is keeping it secret, it will give it a huge strategic advantage over the rest of the world. It would also explain why the US is so blasé about its enormous budget deficit - it knows things are going to change to a new paradigm so it doesn't give a damn about today's economics.

dearieme said...

"this particular climate-change cycle is significantly more extreme than any previous": evidence?

Nick Drew said...

Mark - yes it's truly one for headbangers

but someone has to do it, we are here to serve t'readership

(& the government pays tens of thousands and more for this guff so someone should read it)

RS - congrats on new blog (everyone over to RS's place, guys)

I am rather clear on this one.

Peak Oil is a truism, the question is 'when' and (a) if it happens due to oil physically running out, well, it won't happen in our lifetimes, but (b) if it happens because people are no longer willing to pay X $/bbl, that's quite another matter

Understanding the US biofuels phenomenon is Really Easy: US farmers are a very powerful and greedy lobby - even more so than the French - and they've found a cunning new wheeze. End of story.

I understand your enthusiasm for wind, but seriously; while it's very clean (good), renewable (good) and indigenous (good), on any significant scale it's fantastically expensive, approaching outright infeasible.

Its contribution will only ever be modest, unless the forthcoming recession is an absolute industrial wipeout coupled with sustained high commodity prices (probably mutually exclusive)

The again, solar is even worse !

MJW said...

I do often wonder if the people who come up with this eco-fantasy guff really do take it seriously, because it seems like they can come out with complete crap and then claim anybody who points out it's crap is a "denier".

The problem is we're never going to find a solution to environmental problems (no matter what their causes) if the nutters attempt to close out rational debate and analysis in favour of their ideological whimsy.

seismo said...

Ummm.... some interesting posts.
Declaration of interest-I've been searching for oil since 1980; we're doing just fine :-)

Schandenfreude:
Biofuels have one big market in that they by mixing with lower quality fractions they allow these fractions onto the market.

IMNSHO Matt Simmonds has by far the best grasp on oilfield productivity, esp those dependent on advanced reservoir analysis.
Figure on 300+ bucks a barrel by 2012.

Yep: Dubya knows all about Saudi Aramco's reserves. He would though.
Point being: if Saudi has peaked so has the planet.

If you have oil fired central heating ask the maintenance engineer how much extra muck he's been cleaning out over the past 24 months.

lettersfromatory said...

According to the paper yesterday, biofuels are already destroying economies and forests around the world thanks to subsidies.

Schadenfreude said...

ND: thanks for promoting my blog. Good to see some visitors already! I don't think I will be treading on your toes - taking a totally different approach to business and economics, with plenty of politics thrown in.

I do appear to have been banging the drum for wind power rather, but actually I also support a variety of renewable energy sources such as tidal barrages and do believe there is a place for coal. My viewpoint is one concerned with security of supply rather than environment. And an overall strategy that makes sense. Leaving it to the free market to decide will not work very well. Unless you think burning gas and oil to make electricity is a particularly good use of these energy sources....

mjw: I think what we have with the environmentalists is what sociologist and psychologists describe as "an escalating comitment to a particular (failed) course of action". The very fact that the science is contentious causes sides to be taken, views to become polarised. People make ever more commitment to those views. Eventually peoples careers and reputations are put on the line. Only one side can be right. But will the side that is wrong EVER admit it? That is something I will be taking up in my own blog in due course. I will also look into why organisations of any kind develop their own group think that is not related to the thinking of any one part of that group. Environmental groups are a good example, so I might pick on them.

seismo: interesting. This table is interesting too (don't know how reliable the source is). Oil price is still pretty low compared to the late 70s when adjusted for CPI (even worse if adjusted for RPI). This is despite demand going through the rood. Seems we ain't seen nothin' yet...

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

Mark Wadsworth said...

O/t, but what do you chaps make of this?

Apart from "Runaway! Runaway! Lehman Brothers is going down!", obviously.

Unsworth said...

Peak Oil is one thing, but Peak Energy has already begun. The demand for electricity is now outstripping generating capacity and it's clear that even if we do buy all these french nuclear power stations we'll run out of capacity before they are completed.

All this garbage about environment change is a smokescreen for the reality. The point is that energy usage needs to be reduced substantially unless we are to experience regular brown-outs (how appropriate!). It's already started in the USA and we're not far behind. I'd put my spare cash into energy production and construction businesses.

Next up - Peak Water.

Nick Drew said...

Mr Unsworth - indeed: my understanding is that water shortages will bite several countries in the bum long before energy shortages

e.g. when India tries to electrify its rural areas: power plants need water, and lots of it!

Chervil said...

Interesting post. Biofuel is a big no-no in my opinion as it takes up too much valuable agricultural land.

I suspect peak oil may well be near or already here. We won't know for some time, though, but the oil price is pushing up price for food already.

Wheat reserves are down to historic lows. Rice harvest is significantly down in Asia, from what I can make out.

Water is a big and growing issue (I live in Southern Australia where the water issue is becoming a major crisis).

I agree with one of the other comments that one key is to reduce energy consumption. Energy efficiency is the easiest and fastest way to reduce emissions in the short term. That would give us the breathing space to come up with better renewable technologies.

look said...

aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,

做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,

uhfdf said...

情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,

免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,

will said...

A片,A片,A片,A片,A片,A片情趣用品,情趣,A片,AIO,AV,AV女優,A漫,免費A片,AIO交友愛情館,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色小說,情色文學,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,色情遊戲,嘟嘟情人色網,一葉情貼圖片區,情色論壇,色情影片,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片區,成人圖片,成人貼圖,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,哈啦聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,視訊聊天室,視訊聊天

麻將,台灣彩卷,六合彩開獎號碼,運動彩卷,六合彩,線上遊戲,矽谷麻將,明星3缺一,橘子町,麻將大悶鍋,台客麻將,公博,game,,中華職棒,麗的線上小遊戲,國士無雙麻將,麻將館,賭博遊戲,威力彩,威力彩開獎號碼,龍龍運動網,史萊姆,史萊姆好玩遊戲,史萊姆第一個家,史萊姆好玩遊戲區,樂透彩開獎號碼,遊戲天堂,好玩遊戲,遊戲基地,無料遊戲王,好玩遊戲區,麻將遊戲,好玩遊戲區,小遊戲,遊戲區,電玩快打,cs online情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,A片,AIO交友愛情館,AIOAV女優,AV,A漫,免費A片,本土自拍,自拍,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色小說,情色文學,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,色情遊戲,色情影片,情色網,色情網站,微風成人區,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片區,成人圖片,成人貼圖,成人文章,成人小說,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,哈啦聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,080中部人聊天室,080聊天室,中部人聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室,苗栗人聊天室,免費視訊聊天,免費視訊,視訊聊天室,視訊聊天情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色小說,情色文學,色情,寄情築園小遊戲,色情遊戲,AIO交友愛情館,一葉情貼圖片區,情色論壇,色情影片,色情網站,微風成人區,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片,成人貼圖,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人小說,A片,AV女優,AV,A漫,免費A片,自拍,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,哈啦聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,080中部人聊天室,080聊天室,080苗栗人聊天室情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,愛情公寓,情色,情色貼圖,色情小說,情色小說,情色文學,色情,做愛,寄情築園小遊戲,色情遊戲,AIO交友愛情館,AIO,色情影片,情色網,微風成人,嘟嘟成人網,成人,18成人,成人影城,成人圖片,成人貼圖,成人圖片區,成人文章,成人小說,成人電影,麗的色遊戲,自拍,A片,AV女優,AV,A漫,視訊交友網,視訊,視訊交友,免費視訊聊天室,免費視訊,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,UT聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,哈啦聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,中古車,二手車情色貼圖,日本A片,A片下載,情色A片,AV女優,A漫,免費A片,微風成人,成人網站,成人光碟,嘟嘟成人網,成人,成人影城A片,A片,A片下載,做愛,成人電影,18成人,日本A片,情色小說,情色電影,成人影城,自拍,情色論壇,成人論壇,情色貼圖,情色,免費A片,成人,成人光碟