Friday, 30 May 2008

The Tory/Labour Dilemma

This post runs is also to be found at Political Betting:

Even as the rumours of an imminent challenge to our glorious Prime Minister fade, there is still a good chance of an election before May 2010; No doubt Tory central office is preparing for this and, hidden from view, may even be preparing a manifesto.

The mantra 'It's the Economy, Stupid' is going to hold firm for the next year or two as the UK economic situation worsens, recession or no recession.

But the real hard choice for the Conservatives is what to offer the electorate. The party faithful expect tax cuts and indeed with the burden of taxes at a historically high-level and growing public dissatisfaction with the Government spending splurge, they will think they have point.

However, remember 1979 and Margaret Thatcher, taxes had to go up in the first term. they did under the last 1992/7 Tory government too. A ruined economy needs sorting by whoever is in power.

The economic inheritance from Brown and Darling is likely to be a poisoned one. The official government PSBR is not too bad, but this is from a time of plenty. With tax income due to fall as profits disappear from banks and the services sector, this situation will get worse. The benefits claims will surely increase with higher unemployment. Stamp duty revenues will fall along with the slowing housing market. The huge PFI debt will also begin to weigh more heavily, as will over time the cost of gold-plated public sector pensions as more civil servants start to retire.

Overall, if anything taxes may need to rise unless we have massive spending cuts. Can the Tories campaign on this platform - the truth is they have no other choice, but will they say it? Also what can Labour do in the face of the same problem, promise a Tory-lite or ignore economic sense and retreat to a socialist utopia? And even the Lib Dems need to come up with some ideas?

How honest can politicians be and how much would electoral dishonesty hamstring the next Government to the point at which it became a one-term wonder?


Mark Wadsworth said...

Who's afraid of 'spending cuts'?

As anybody who looks at this well knows, there's at least £50bn to £100bn of pure waste every year (in particular the quangocracy, but general sloppiness in State acquisition and provision of 'services' comes on top of that).

And some taxes are way past the top of the Laffer Curve (in particular Employer's NIC and VAT), so you could reduce or scrap these (having left the EU, of course) and still only be £50 bn down overall.

That'd reduce PSBR to about nil as well. Problem solved.

Simon Fawthrop said...

I've thought for a while that the Cameron's position when challenged on taxes should be

1. In principle we are for low taxes but above that we are for a stable economy, which needs to come first

2. There is likely to be two more budgets from this Govt before we get a general election, which means that the economy is likely to be even more fucked than it is now come the GE

3. It is therefore impossible for us to make detailed pronouncements at this stage on what we will do on taxes and spending, but you can be sure that sorting the mess out will be our first priority, once we've seen the books and worked out how bad it is.

4. (As you say) it is probable that there will need to be a lot of belt tightening as we put in place the measures to sort it out cue Mark's comments.

5. We beleive that health care should be free at the pint of delivery (Repeated ad nauseum and not even when asked as the NHS charging ghost will be Labour's main weapon in any GE)

Ed said...

I agree with Simpleton: Cameron should be frank with the electorate. He should say: these are the problems we face and this is how we will deal with them. I think the electorate knows that we have been living on borrowed milk and honey and that belt tightening is now the order of the day. The worst possible outcome would be to promise early tax cuts then cancel them immediately after taking up the reins.

CityUnslicker said...

borrowed milk and honey - ffs

pulling teeth out of a stone?


CityUnslicker said...

MW - Yes but remember, an honest government would add in the PFI debt and all the other off-balance sheet spending commitments; and look at a way to account for public sector pensions more realistically.

Even with your, achievable, suggested cuts we are still a long way from safety!

Sackerson said...

So, an election to lose rather than win, then. Or another national government?

Anonymous said...

aaaa片, 免費聊天, 咆哮小老鼠影片分享區, 金瓶梅影片, av女優王國, 78論壇, 女同聊天室, 熟女貼圖, 1069壞朋友論壇gay, 淫蕩少女總部, 日本情色派, 平水相逢, 黑澀會美眉無名, 網路小說免費看, 999東洋成人, 免費視訊聊天, 情色電影分享區, 9k躺伯虎聊天室, 傑克論壇, 日本女星杉本彩寫真, 自拍電影免費下載, a片論壇, 情色短片試看, 素人自拍寫真, 免費成人影音, 彩虹自拍, 小魔女貼影片, 自拍裸體寫真, 禿頭俱樂部, 環球av影音城, 學生色情聊天室, 視訊美女, 辣妹情色圖, 性感卡通美女圖片, 影音, 情色照片 做愛, hilive tv , 忘年之交聊天室, 制服美女, 性感辣妹, ut 女同聊天室, 淫蕩自拍, 處女貼圖貼片區, 聊天ukiss tw, 亞亞成人館, 777成人, 秋瓷炫裸體寫真, 淫蕩天使貼圖, 十八禁成人影音, 禁地論壇, 洪爺淫蕩自拍, 秘書自拍圖片,

做愛的漫畫圖片, 情色電影分享區, 做愛ㄉ影片, 丁字褲美女寫真, 色美眉, 自拍俱樂部首頁, 日本偷自拍圖片, 色情做愛影片, 情色貼圖區, 八國聯軍情色網, 免費線上a片, 淫蕩女孩自拍, 美國a片, 都都成人站, 色情自拍, 本土自拍照片, 熊貓貼圖區, 色情影片, 5278影片網, 脫星寫真圖片, 粉喵聊天室, 金瓶梅18, sex888影片分享區, 1007視訊, 雙贏論壇, 爆爆爽a片免費看, 天堂私服論壇, 情色電影下載, 成人短片, 麗的線上情色小遊戲, 情色動畫免費下載, 日本女優, 小說論壇, 777成人區, showlive影音聊天網, 聊天室尋夢園, 義大利女星寫真集, 韓國a片, 熟女人妻援交, 0204成人, 性感內衣模特兒, 影片, 情色卡通, 85cc免費影城85cc, 本土自拍照片, 成人漫畫區, 18禁, 情人節阿性,

Anonymous said...

情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 言情小說, 愛情小說, 色情A片, 情色論壇, 色情影片, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊美女, 視訊交友, ut聊天室, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, a片下載, av片, A漫, av dvd, av成人網, 聊天室, 成人論壇, 本土自拍, 自拍, A片, 愛情公寓, 情色, 舊情人, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 情色交友, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊, 情色電影, aio交友愛情館, 色情a片, 一夜情, 辣妹視訊, 視訊聊天室, 免費視訊聊天, 免費視訊, 視訊, 視訊美女, 美女視訊, 視訊交友, 視訊聊天, 免費視訊聊天室, 情人視訊網, 影音視訊聊天室, 視訊交友90739, 成人影片, 成人交友,

免費A片, 本土自拍, AV女優, 美女視訊, 情色交友, 免費AV, 色情網站, 辣妹視訊, 美女交友, 色情影片, 成人影片, 成人網站, A片,H漫, 18成人, 成人圖片, 成人漫畫, 情色網, 日本A片, 免費A片下載, 性愛, 成人交友, 嘟嘟成人網, 成人電影, 成人, 成人貼圖, 成人小說, 成人文章, 成人圖片區, 免費成人影片, 成人遊戲, 微風成人, 愛情公寓, 情色, 情色貼圖, 情色文學, 做愛, 色情聊天室, 色情小說, 一葉情貼圖片區, 情色小說, 色情, 寄情築園小遊戲, 色情遊戲, 情色視訊,