Sunday, 5 October 2008

The key week of the next decade


That is my prediction for this week. Quite a strong one, but it seems there have been 4 key developments that are going to dictate events:

1 - The US bail-out, so vaunted just days ago, looks like it will not achieve any kind of market reaction at all at the moment. No one would have predicted this ten days ago, which just shows how deep we are in uncharted, indeed, unchartable waters.

2 - The EU banks have appeared to be in just as much trouble as the US ones, the EU will now suffer accordingly. If Germany has guaranteed all deposits like Ireland, then the whole of Europe's financial and government system will be shaken to its core this week.

3- The CDS market settlement continues and so banks are not going to lend any money to anyone until this is all settled. If key industries like power and airlines can't access the credit they need then the lights go out and the planes will be grounded.

4. Hedge funds continue to have their funds called in by investors, liquidating more positions will drag the markets down further and destroy more confidence - some are predicting a very big stock market crash for this week.

Still, happy days eh? Hopefully we will all muddle through somehow...

12 comments:

Bill Quango MP said...

What was the point of that EU summit if all that it has produced is greater confusion?
Just what the markets need, more uncertainty

Tuscan Tony said...

Great summary Nick. Still, despite all that we can be reassured with the top drawer individuals Gordon has brought in to solve what the Masters of the Universe could not - collossi like Sion Simon, Chris Bryant and Tom Watson spring to mind.

Blue Eyes said...

Let anyone who can't repay their debts enter into administration. Perhaps the UK needs to quickly introduce a kind of Chapter 11 system to stop "important" companies from closing completely - e.g. high street banks and infrastructure companies. Let the bankers go and live under Waterloo bridge.

Apparently the price of a used Porsche has dropped significantly in recent weeks.

Anonymous said...

my own feeling is that there won't (and I know I could well be wrong) be a big crash any time soon... and that it will be the lack of a this-is-it crash which causes the most pain... there are so many variables, with people distracted by so many problems-and-possible-solutions at the same time, that I suspect we will have sharp drops and rises and flat weeks (rollercoaster-like), all of which add up to a longer period of decline... painful, like an itch you can't scratch...

sold 10% of pension shares last week to have some cash available to buy at lower prices this week.

Unsworth said...

So much for Europeean Unity. It only takes one nation to step away from the 'agreed' position and the whole thing collapses. France and Germany have been doing this by subterfuge for years. Now it is in the open.

It's not just this week, CU. I'd hazard that it will be several weeks, maybe months.

Meanwhile China seems relatively unfazed....

Letters From A Tory said...

I think I'll stay at home, put my fingers in my ears, say la-la-la and hope it all goes away. If it's good enough for the EU it's good enough for me!

Mark Wadsworth said...

CU, I shall hereby link to my fun online poll on the best way to sort out the banking 'crisis'.

ken from glos said...

These are indeed uncertain times and i wish you all the best of luck.I agree with you Tuscan tony.
We need a good Government now and what have we got?

I wont say anything else because this is a family blog!!

dearieme said...

Has anyone got any suggestions on how I can best sell the cheque wot Gordon bounced on me? By "best", in this instance, I mean "for most money".

CityUnslicker said...

Not a good day today - all has come to pass and we still have 4 working days to go...

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