Wednesday 3 December 2008

Who next for the Bond market crunch machine?


It might seem an odd title, but things are afoot in the market even as we approach the year end of a truly annus horribilis.


There may be rays of light for the Government in seeing its investment in RBS creep over the rights issue price, but there is gloom elsewhere.


So much gloom in fact that the measure of Bond risk on corporates in Europe has soared to its highest ever level. This sounds obscure to many I am sure (as the does name - itraxx crossover index), but rest assured these were the kind of levels seen in the US prior to Lehman going down in September.


No one can really say how much hedge fund redemption's and other weird market effects are having. But from the stress indicators it seems likely another large company or organisation in Europe is going to suffer from a run on the company and go down in the next few days.


Perhaps it will all pass and the stress will leave the system, however that is not the pattern we have seen throughout the year so far. I think it likely that this is the beginning of the stage when we will see the damage spread further beyond Financials, Housebuilders and retail, perhaps into manufacturing.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

What's that phrase?
Oh yes, I remember..

"You ain't seen nuthin yet"

Anonymous said...

A main national wholesaler has gone into administration. Didn't make the news but its still 300 jobs lost and they are the major supplier of goods in their field.

Anonymous said...

Re Anon 1.05: Who and where? No need to be so cryptic here; we are all grown up and have broad shoulders.

Anonymous said...

JP Magson. Wholesale stationers

AntiCitizenOne said...

Is INFINEON the one going pop?

Pity if so.

CityUnslicker said...

Anon, Sid - thanks for that.

Quite big player in their space. there are many more to come at that level unfortunately.

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