Latest from the bleak eastern front is that Gazprom has yanked out the rug from under a new gas agreement, on the pretext that those cheeky Ukrainians slipped in some provocative wording:
"Ukraine has always been and remains a reliable transit country and has not interrupted transit of gas to the EU member states"; and "Ukraine has not made any non-contractual gas take-offs in 2009"
Yup, that's pretty silly. Clearly no-one in any great rush to settle, then, which gives us time to discuss another aspect of this long-running saga, namely that within the bounds of 'commercial' actions, Russia cannot win this one. The reason is simple. Ukraine was established as the hub of the Soviet-era gas delivery system to the West, with huge supporting infrastructure including, critically, vast amounts of the storage that is vital to optimise and modulate a lengthy gas supply route. For basic economic reasons storage must be at the customers' end of such a system, and Gazprom is stuck with the fact that it's in the Ukraine. This ain't gonna change any decade soon, so there they are.
Of course, they have been making costly efforts to develop new outflanking routes, (though the one through Belarus runs into all the same problems), but these are relatively modest in capacity and way behind schedule in any case. And, as noted before, their ability to make such investments is going to take a big knock as gas prices fall significantly this year.
The need for resumption of hard currency flows will kick in soon, and unless Russia can inveigle the EU to pay the danegeld on its behalf (unlikely-ish ...), 'normal service' will have to resume in due course.
Meanwhile, expect the UK gas industry to start pressing for subsidies to build new gas storage facilities (despite the fact that the existing ones are making a fortune). Why do an honest day's work when you can go lobbying instead ?
ND
9 comments:
Where there's a scare, there's a subsidy.
I was going to ask whether we should be encouraging a country which is prepared to hold its neighbours to ransom, break contracts, refuse to pay its bills, etc. into our wonderful European club, but then I remembered that France was already in...
And expect the EU to help itself to the UK's North Sea oil & gas once the Lisbon Treaty is ratified. And no veto for us, remember.
Maybe Russia will just invade Ukraine and take over - problem solved.
I expect the EU would huff and puff and do nothing.
Maybe it'll happen a day after St. Obama takes over - or a week after.
Watch this space!
"Russia cannot win this one. The reason is simple. Ukraine was established as the hub of the Soviet-era gas delivery system to the West, with huge supporting infrastructure including, critically, vast amounts of the storage that is vital to optimise and modulate a lengthy gas supply route."
Good point. But ...
You may accuse me of being unduly pessimistic or alarmist but could the Russians invade the Ukraine? You may larf this one off but a year ago most reasonable thinking people would have giggled uncontrollably if you had said to them that Russia would invade Georgia before the end of 2008 ...
the banks have set the bar rather high, haven't they Mark ?
Ukraine not exactly advancing its cause, BE - it may be losing some friends, as you suggest: not sure how the pro-Ukraine-accession camp would argue now. Best EU quote on this: "we can't act as referee because we don't understand the rules" - and a very murky game it is too
Prodicus - not sure I follow the first part of that ... (if we're meant to take it at face value !)
anon, n.a.e. - well, "within the bounds of 'commercial' actions": and *ahem* ... the Georgia thing ... (have a look at our 2008 Predictions post)
I doubt very much if the Ukraine would be doing this if the western powers weren't going to such lengths to put most of the blame on Russia. Possibly the EU observers observing gas going into Ukraine from Russia & observing it not come out will lead them to openly say that Ukraine is stealing it. The problem is that the Ukrainian election was bought with our money & therefore we find it difficult to say the Russians are more reliable.
If every country surrounding Ukraine (ie including the NATO ones) was to say Ukraine should stop stealing they really would have no alternative.
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