Tuesday, 25 August 2009

GKP strikes it rich

What a story, here is a tiddly oil company that has struck oil in Kurdistan. It had been widely tipped, but not as much as FTSE100 Heritage Oil. The shares were as low as 10p a few months ago. I bought some as a punt at 21p (two weeks ago), thinking I had probably missed the best rises for the year, but maybe with another oil find and confirmation of production, it could hit maybe 30-40p.

Well, they hit more oil today and currently the shareprice is nearing £1. Blimey, what a lucky strike!


Steven_L said...

You seem to be making a killing on these small caps CU. I don't have the bottle for them at the moment. If they were offered with orders aware margining I'd have a go, but they aint and my cash is all in nice sensible funds.

Currently kicking myself for getting rid of my Vodafone position instead of RSA to free up margin for Lloyds, and had a punt this morning on RBS, I reckon if it breaks through its recent high of 55p or so it might get going another 20% or so.

But RSA is back up a bit now and I've recovered £400 of that £500 I thought I'd lost a few weeks ago (unless RBS tanks again).

CityUnslicker said...

RSA - great range trade, always buy under 120 and sell over 130. I never get roung to it though.

It has been hard not to make a killing recently. Though I managed to lose money on Lloyds buying for a £1 selling for 96p, only to see it rocket 10% un two days.

Still, nearing 200% up on the year, so not complaining too much.

If the market turns bank stocks are going to lead it down.

Budgie said...

Never mind the share prices, what about all our debt? Have we forgotten so quickly?

Steven_L said...

I haven't really been losing any money, but I feel like I've lost a shed load through missed opportunity recently.

I added Punch Taverns to my watchlist last week too after spending hours going through the annual reports of every pub company. Up nearly 25% since last week, so I'm kicking myself there too.

I've come to the conclusion that I'm not very good at gambling really. Either far too hesitant or a trigger finger. I need to start using my coffee machine too, and make sure I'm awake at 8am.

CityUnslicker said...

SL - I am with you on the need to be up and at it at 8am if you are to have a chance in trading. Most of the big moves are done and dusted by 8.15!

Budgie - GKP have no debt and I discuss my trading and tweet my trading position regularly. As I said the otehr week, I am in a purple patch at the moment. So any help i can be of others to help them with THEIR debt, is for free.

Steven_L said...

"what about all our debt? Have we forgotten so quickly?" (Budgie)

Don't you remember? It all got parcelled up into tradeable securities that no one understood, written down to cents in the dollar then replaced with money the central banks printed.

Or something like that.

Fausty said...

HAWK has similar promise. Watch.

Budgie said...

What I meant by "what about all our debt?" was: the massive government debt (£175 billion plus added this year alone to a debt of c60 per cent of GDP); plus total UK personal debt at the end of June 2009 being £1458bn.

In other words: why are shares rocketing when the debts are so bad that they will strangle any "green shoots"? These debts are a millstone. Did "we" not get into trouble because of these massive debts just a year ago?

Sentiment may have changed, there may be a bit of QE sloshing around, but we are STILL living beyond our means. This is unsustainable. Have we forgotten the dire straits our economy is in, precisely because of this level of debt?

CityUnslicker said...

Budgie - I agree re teh debt adn the future of UK plc.

2 things:

1 - The FTSE100 is mainly international companies so the pure UK outlook has less bearing than you may imagine on its fortunes.

2 - Shares fell from 6700 to 3500. Did our economy collapse by 50% - no. It has taken a big hit as has the global economy. We may lose about 10% of GDP (some was fantasy in the first place, hence the debt). Shares are nearing 5000, still nearly 30% off the 2007 highs.

I think there will be a re-trace but hopefully we will not see sub-4000 again in this cycle.

Steven_L said...

A very good number of FTSE stocks make most of their incomes abroad though budgie.

Also companies that looked as if they might have the plug pulled were saved by the banks that were saved by the taxpayer.

There's lots of good reasons why people are loading up on stocks.

Would you rather buy all this debt that's worrying you instead? Or put it in the bank for 3 and a half per cent when perfectly sustainable blue-chip firms (whos' earnings should keep pace with inflation) are paying 5 or 6 per cent in dividends?

The big threat to the recovery in asset prices would be a hike in interest rates. I can't see it happening though. I reckon low rates, and enough unemployment to keep price/wage inflation at bay (bearing in mind how weak trade unions are these days), are here to stay for a while yet.

So that leaves us with another commodity price bubble or a bond crash as the major risks.

Japan has debts of 200% GDP from what I hear and people (or probably people's pensions) are still buying it.

There'll probably be many a poor sod in the UK who's pension pot got shifted from shares at the bottom of the crash to government debt at the record low interest rates too.

As for consumer debt, a lot of retail stocks are still in the doldrums. As long as there is plenty of money sloshing around in the casino it will end up somewhere, regardless of what is happening on the ground.

Bill Quango MP said...

But look at today's USA debt figures.
Barack and Gordon had to follow the same plan. Print as much as you think you can get away with..then a bit more..then a lot more .. and blame it on the previous incumbent. USA didn't have a lot of choice. UK didn't either. But both have elected to spend their way out of debt.

Interesting the moderates of France and Germany seem to be doing better in the recovery stakes. That USA debt is surely going to influence the markets?

Anonymous said...

What's going on with Minerva today? Looks like another good call.

CityUnslicker said...

MNR - must be a leak of some news...RNS soon I would think or else big re-trace

In the stocks said...

What about the idea being put about by some that there will be a second crash in October ? I've seen a number of people saying the charts are looking ominous and this rally is going to end with an almighty bang.