Tuesday, 24 November 2009

Working/Trading

Having had to work a weekend for the first time in a while, the true nature of the volatile markets we have had has hit home. Prices of UK shares are rising and falling very quickly right now and day to day. If you can't follow the markets closely then your positions become very exposed.

This is normally a bad sign, similar to a spinning top running out of energy, as the wobble grows the crash comes nearer. QE has prevented a crash so far and yet the top of the market seems close now. My hunch is that we will see 2009 out and then in 2010 there will be another roller coaster with big drops in prices of oil, commodities and share prices in the first few months of the year.

Interesting times for trading, if only I can find the time to keep up!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

"then in 2010 there will be another roller coaster with big drops in prices of oil, commodities and share prices"

Some bargains should be available for those hording cash.

CityUnslicker said...

re anon - this year I timed the shorting all wrong but went long perfectly. Next year my challenge is to get both sides of the trade correct.

electro-kevin said...

I can only watch in wonderment. It's an art, is it not, CU ?

Budgie said...

Is this general, and will it apply to all shares, or will particular circumstances (like the bid for Minerva) be sufficient to counteract the main trend? What about big transnational businesses like Shell, Unilever etc, are they big enough to withstand the fluctuations? What is the point of holding cash when the Pound, Dollar and Euro have intrinsic problems?

CityUnslicker said...

Budgie - smaller stocks are a law unto themselves, but as I see it QE has made all asset prices rise and so they will all unwind together, just as they did in Oct 2008.

Anonymous said...

Hey CS, I'm with you in this belief of a retrace next year, I'm wondering whether the election will be influential.. GB will try and keep everything looking rosy until he leaves (QE). What stocks are you looking at shorting and on what time frame. I was thinking miners are a good bet as they lead indicies but then wondered whether as inflation is expected they wouldn't drop too much...??