Tuesday, 5 January 2010
Trading 2010 - current strategy
Firstly, 2009 ended with a total profit for both ISA and non-ISA portfolios of 150% - how I would love to repeat that this year, but somehow I doubt lightning will strike twice. My main investment of the year was Minerva and this ended up 450% on the year and in the FTSE All-share top ten!
At the moment all those predicting a double dip are off-beam, with QE the stock market will keep on going this quarter and more if QE continues. Only when we have a Government debt crisis will a dip possibly occur and this won't happen until the election. As such I remain long on stocks with only 10% cash balance and no short positions (very tempting to short gilts though). Interest rates will remain low too, giving a further boost to the recovery. This is of course all in line with Labour's scorched earth strategy of creating a min-boom now which will bust and hit the incoming Tories with a lower margin of victory and a probable double-dipping economy.
Also despite the boom I see commodity stocks as the best current pick. Oil and Copper should be strong for the next few months, if not super bullish. This will raise the prices of these shares. Financials will be weak in the UK, Retailr too, manufacturing and food producers may seem some renewed M&A. Property is on a knife edge as a continuation of the recovery in commercial property prices could see the sector continue its long-run - but that is very much in the balance.
I will go into specific stock picks later in the week.
What do you see as the trends to buy and sell? What are your positions?