Saturday, 8 May 2010

Will the markets wait for Cameron?

Er no, unless the Tories and Dems get something sorted by tomorrow then more instability it is. What is amazing is the confluence of events.A major breakdown of high frequency trading, the Greek bond crisis and the UK election.

The Greek bailout is complete. the US could rally, we could have a deal for coalition. There may be a big bounce next week. I don't feel that will be the case, but my hunches have been wrong all week and now thy hurt!

18 comments:

Budgie said...

Already the politicians are playing with the markets. Cameron should now be PM of a minority government even without any agreement with the LibDems - that can be thrashed out over the next week. Someone prise Gordoom's fingers from the levers of power, please, before the whole nation gets even more in the mire.

hatfield girl said...

It's being reported that Brown is in discussion with EU leaders on the sovereign debt problems. I hope they aren't taking him any more seriously than they have for the last dozen years.

Demetrius said...

As a long time subscriber to The Big Nasty Is Out There Theory I would prefer to be wrong because of the personal inconvenience any bad time would give me. The trouble is I think I could be right. The nightmare is that the situation that turns so bad so quick that Clegg will be forced into propping up Brown because of urgency alone. Please let me be wrong.

Scrobs... said...

C un S,

I've just posted this on Guido, and seeing your post, here it is in full. Please excuse the emotion - I am getting a bit passionate about these guys...

And all the time this farce is being acted out, we waste yet another week in my company’s fight for survival. Investors will do nothing until a clear winner as a leader is appointed, and some – even rocky, but enough – stability is brought to the marketplace.

The jobs which our business would provide if the deals could be taken from uncertainty to completion, amount to about £23,000,000. That includes all the construction work, fees, and some (not the amount there used to be)profit, for us, to pay us back not having anything worthwhile over the recent years, due directly to Brown’s disgraceful administration.

Every hour of uncertainty created by these politicians drives another nail in the coffin of Brown’s legacy, and I sincerely hope that his visit to his roots in his village will terminate there, and he never ever shows his face again.

Brown and his followers – mostly commercial incompetents like Mandleson, who’s never held a business post in his life, but is ‘in charge’ of ‘business’, is one of the jokes of the century.

If Brown is pitied for having just two hours sleep last night, then I hope all the people who will rely on my firm’s success will understand that he had more than I have had over the past week, trying to kick our way out of the Godawful mess we have to endure under this disgraceful admisitration.

Cameron and Clegg, you should now work every day and night to resolve this, and remember what I said about the £23,000,000. Some of the people who will benefit voted for you.

Just do it.

asquith said...

Disclaimer, I voted for Clegg (in a safe Labour seat where it didn't make a blind bit of difference).

My view is that there should now be a minority Camoron government, with Lib Dem support on a case by case basis. They should definitely move on this idea of raising the income tax threshold, & should also resist NI rises, & should do a lot of things but they are 2 to be getting on with.

With any luck the new government will be prevented from following Daily Mail policies & will be fairly lieral economically & socially. I expect the government to be Eurosceptic, but that's ok because Europhilia was the Lib Dem policy I was least happy with.

I would have preferred Lib Dems to gain more seats at Labour's expense but I'm not going to sit up all night crying. I have on the other hand been thinking fairly seriously about STV, I can't for the life of me see what's wrong with it. It is the system I'd be most keen to put my name to. It pisses me off that Walley wins here every time. I actually approve of her as a constituency MP, I just don't want Labour representing me. In a multimember seat I'd get someone more to my liking, there are actually a fir few of us here who don't want Labour, it's just that we can never cobble a plurality together.

Still, good riddance to Respect, the BNP & whoever else I'm too fuddled by my afternoon's malt & curry to bring to mind. I enjoyed watching the results from Stoke city council, not so much Labour's comeback as watching all the people I hate from local blogs run as candidates & lose heavily. There's a joy to it, probably a rotten & corrupting one but who's fuckig counting?

I expect Labour to recover nationwide. I fear they haven't been weakened enough to seriouly change, I think it's possible that they will become less authoritarian & twattish but unlikely if they haven't been beaten back 1997 style & forced to think again.

asquith said...

Yeah, what I was trying to say is I don't support a coalition. Solid party differences should be maintained. Lib Dems should support Camoron when they think his policies are worth supporting, not because they somehow feelbeholden to him.

Bill Quango MP said...

Disturbingly Nick Robinson just reported that "senior Lib Dems are talking about Nick getting out of talks with the Tories and going to talk with Gordon Brown."

The idea is a traffic light coalition of Lib/Lab/Plaid Cymru/SNP/DUP/Green/SDLP.

The hope is to get PR in before the whole thing collapses. It couldn't possibly work for long and I doubt the country in its current economic state could possibly hold off the markets who would react in horror to such a feeble coalition. Monday is going to be bad enough without some political stitch up where the Greens with a single seat could dictate policy.

Nick Drew said...

BQ - couldn't possibly work for long: correct - it couldn't work for 4 hours of market trading

if Cameron + Clegg haven't reached an agreement by first thing Monday morning , they certainly will have by noon

Anonymous said...

Seems we are on the hook for EU bailout.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/7696870/British-taxpayers-ordered-to-bail-out-euro.html

You have to wonder...if the £ needs a bailout, would the EU countries contribute?

Brown is a cunt, get it out of No 10 immediately, agreement or no agreement with Klegg.

mark said...

Of course Cleggg is going to play the Tories and Labour (+small parties) off against each other.

Forgetting about the markets for the moment it is in Nick Cleggs and the Lib Dems interest for the Conservatives to really believe that he might go in with Labour.

This gives him maximum leverage to negotiate the best possible deal.

For those who believe (as I do) that the UK is at some historic juncture and on a knife edge in economic terms then a loose coalition is no good. It is not what the UK needs.

The UK needs a strong united Cons-LibDem government with a promise of a 5 year term.

asquith said...

"The idea is a traffic light coalition of Lib/Lab/Plaid Cymru/SNP/DUP/Green/SDLP"

Do they not realise how horrified a lot of the people who voted Lib Dem are by that thought? We voted against Labour because we thought they didn't deserve re-election. We obviously were & are sceptical about Camoron but look where he is now.

A fucking shopping list of any old cunt in parliament in coalition is not what I want & I am sure that, while Clegg has his reasons for wanting people to suspect/fear that, it is not what he will end up going for.

CityUnslicker said...

The rainbow coalition would bea disaster. Effectively a dictatorship of the Celts over the English. No real mandate at all in terms of representation despite what they say. The SNP got far less votes that UKIP for example.

It is going to be game over monday if LIbs and Tories can't agree a deal. i just hope the senior traders from the banks and the BOE are at teh cabinet office spelling out the danger.

How the country can be held to ransom for PR is pathetic. As if anyone in the country decided their vote because that was the most pressing issue facing us.

Anonymous said...

Will the markets wait for Camoron?

Only a small part of the issue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-crisis-eight-simple-charts

Bill Quango MP said...

Its funny to hear the Lib Dem supporters. Spoke to a few yesterday and the view seen on the telly seems pretty representative.

"We voted for the Liberals. We voted for change. Not to be part of a Tory pact."

So much for PR then. Seems the Libs only want PR with left wingers.

As CU says UKIP got 917,000 votes and no MPs.
Combined BNP vote is greater than any single total of those parties below. Including the SNP!

Democratic Unionist Party 8seats 168,216
Scottish National Party - 6 seats
491,386
Sinn Fein 5 seats 171,942
Plaid Cymru 3 seats
165,394
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3 seats
110,970
Green 1 seat
285,000

The case for reform seems overwhelming.
The people that seem most in favour of it don't seem to have considered the consequences.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

woman on a raft said...

Mark Wadsworth has compiled an excellent summary table of votes compared to seats.

Suppose I am a bond trader and the British government - which still exists on the basis of constitutional monarchy empowering its zombie ministers - can still offer its bonds via the Treasury.

Do I buy British bonds because I think that they will be honoured, or do I seriously think there is a chance that it will be imminently defaulted on?

Now personally my instinct (and I'm not a bond trader) is that there is a chance that the crappest government I've ever known will be permanently shoved in the swamp. The majority winner might not be clear, but the loser is, so this is still an improvement on Wednesday teatime.

So if they were buying UK government bonds last week when they knew for sure the government was rubbish, they should be cheery about buying it when there is a chance that it might improve but can't actually get any worse.

However, there's no point in telling Clegg this as it will only encourage him to dicker about in marriage negotiations. We are now in Kevin Bloody Wilson territory.

NSFW and contains terribly strong language, but it gets to the essence of the problem.

Pogo said...

W.O.A.R... You're suffering from the delusion that the city and bond markets are rational and logical. They're not. They operate with all the cool logic of a flock of sheep when surprised by a predator.

Rule #1 - PANIC!!!!!

:-)

James Higham said...

What is amazing is the confluence of events.

Complete coincidence. :)

CityUnslicker said...

Pogo - Nailed it. However so irrational there maybe a boucne tomorrow - unlikely, but you never know!