Wednesday, 16 June 2010

BP Update: Still not buying this

The news out of BP just gets worse. When it comes to trading those who read my posts know I tend to go for a high risk shit or bust approach. Sadly Mrs Unslicker's spending means this is the only path available to me.

So only a week ago I had looked at BP and thought, well below £4 has to be a steal. Well the share price has dropped far below that and is still falling.

But I can't buy yet. The news flow is horrible. The US President is gunning for the company, that just isn't good news. The US Class action suits are going to be horrific. I can see mad US lawyers putting trillions in damages on the table, not billions (this is their bid-em-up tactic after all).

I am looking at a new level of under £3.30 for my entry now. There should be a technical bounce at this level, but the flow of oil and bad news has to be stopped.

12 comments:

James S said...

Too late, bought in at 338.

Steven_L said...

Did you see his speech? Pushing green energy?

America is still sceptical, but there is still at least 2 months of watching the oil flow then what 6 months of immediate aftermath?

Buy anyhting that will benefit from the green energy revolution / carbon trading. Big oil is so yesterday!

I saw the US geological survey is saying Afghanistan could become the Saudi Arabia of Lithium (as ij car batterys) too!

Budgie said...

Won't BP counter claim against Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron (failed BOP)? I know this means the lawyers will have a field day but no-one thinks this little lot is going to be cost free, hence the halved BP share price.

It is the southern states coastline that bears the brunt of BP's apparent incompetence. But it looks like this was a bubble of unforeseen size/ferocity which overwhelmed the BOP, and I am sure BP like everyone else would much prefer it had not happened. The notion that every accident is avoidable is the siren call of lawyers (particularly USA lawyers): it is false.

As for Obama, I had a low opinion of him before, but some of his pronouncements make him look excruciatingly embarrassing. In particular his comparison with 9/11 was completely crass.

Richard Elliot said...

I went in today, so I hope you are wrong!

Bill Quango MP said...

Just one sample of a review of Obama's speech yesterday. Doesn't seem to have gone down too well.
Not enough BP bashing.

71 per cent of Americans polled by Gallup over the weekend think Obama has not shown enough toughness towards BP, task number one for Obama was to persuade all that he's on the job, in charge and ready to kick ass, starting with Tony Hayward's.

lilith said...

But the news is so bad! ie that the well won't stop leaking until the oil is spent....

Steven_L said...

Inceidently I was checking out on SG's website how much money you could have made if you had bought well out of the money put warrants when it first started leaking.

So I cried myself to sleep again last night!

Anonymous said...

Obama is bigging this up as a tipping point to get USA away from on oil-based economy. Who has massive investments in green technology? Yep, Democrat Al Gore!

I wonder how how many other in Obama's circle have taken long positions in alternative energy and see their chance for funnelling $$ TRILLIONS their way from a Federal 'green' tax tsunami?

As Republicans are synonymous with 'big oil', by destroying oil Obama must reckon to wreck Republican influence, funding and patronage for good.

Anonymous said...

Denninger suggests BP may consider filing C11 for their US operations, then let the vultures pick over what's left.

US ops should be pretty well firewalled from the rest of the company, one would hope?

Yea, it represents 40% of ww BP, but 60% of BP is better than nothing.

Steven_L said...

You see the tin foil hats are coming out. Alex Jones wasn't onto this as quick as I was!

I reckon I'm going to go into the pamphlet business!

Obsidian said...

I've bought in at a couple of levels, only 101 shares, but them I'm a trading novice getting his toes wet ;)

Got them as part of a more long term portfolio, as I suspect in another 5 years the market will have forgotten this and they'll moving upwards again.

I'll likely have a crack at the shorter deals in the near future, when I've got time to spend looking at the markets proper.

Cheers for providing insight though, you;re a source of valuable know how to the oiks like me ;)

Anonymous said...

Budgie above:
"Won't BP counter claim against Transocean, Halliburton and Cameron (failed BOP)? "

I would expect that but any such actuion would cirpple these smaller companies I wonder what the American's repsonse to that would be - e.g., launch to defend them insome way at the expense of BP. I could be wrong but I dont consider American govts to be esp non partisan in such matters.