Well you probably know my (unoriginal) view, that gold is a hedge against Bad News. Around these parts we can see stormy waters ahead, and gold has been reflecting this since July, when it resumed its long, long upward trend. Up 8% in a month (more in Sterling), back towards all-time record levels. We called May an opportunity for a bit of profit-taking (though remaining long overall) & July a time to top up again, and so it has proved.
It's looking ugly for other assets, IMHO.
ND
6 comments:
What bad news in particular are you worried about Nick?
I'm starting to shift my ISA around a bit, going to ditch the Ruffer fund and free up a load of cash.
I must admit, I'm tempted by high yielding, unfashionable equities, my Vodafone thesis is turning out well.
Why you so bearish?
Gold is more than a hedge for bad news, it is also a vote of no confidence in government, Bill Quango excepted of course.
Gold is more than a hedge for bad news, it is also a vote of no confidence in government, Bill Quango excepted of course.
Why you so bearish?
it's a hedge, Steven !!
when I take out insurance, I don't necessarily expect, errr, a tree to fall down ...
I must admit to having a similar hedge then, but silver. It's more a hedge against that Bernake bloke going mad with his printing press.
I think it could be surprisingly bad for property prices in the UK over the next few months, but I'm struggling to think what other assets it could be looking ugly for.
Shares? - they are effectively about half what they were in 1999, so no plummeting but they will bounce around a bit. In the end they are a productive asset paying a dividend, unlike gold or houses.
As for commodities - the 'global' recession was really just the USA, the UK and Euroland, so I don't think so. In fact if we don't watch it, it will be the Chineses diddling the hapless Africans in future, not us.
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