18 months ago Goldmans offered an analysis which seemed pretty compelling to me. It charted in detail the rise and fall of the oil price 2007-2009, and showed how, when the global recovery had run for a short while - they specifically predicted turn-of-2010 - based on the fundamentals oil would steam ahead into 3 figures again, which would be the way of the world thenceforward. (You'll perhaps have noted that I was still persuaded of this, and other arguments, at the time we made our 2011 predictions.) This view wasn't universally held: amazingly, right up until the end of last year some 'reputable econometric forecasters' (oxymoron) were still seeing oil in only 2 figures for the whole of 2011.
Anyway, Goldmans were right: and the only thing that can upset the applecart on a sustained basis (i.e. more than just a bit of dithering either side of $100 for a while) will be the dreaded GlobalRecession2.
So how come the vampire squid is now advising clients to ditch oil & other commodities ? Is GR2 just around the corner - or is it just a bit of tactical trading advice ?
Alternatively, it seems that copper demand has been boosted artificially by the Chinese playing games - or has it ? ... and so you don't have to go far to assemble a Conspiracy Theory. Goldmans certainly caused oil to dip on Tues. But it hasn't lasted long, has it - so what's fundamentally changed ?
Nothing that I can see. Now, about that conspiracy ...