Tuesday 9 August 2011

Here we go, here we go, here we go

Supposed to be going to the Footie tomorrow night with clients, expecting that to be called off this morning.

Anyway, another day in the UK and another day of blind panic and disorder - just the FTSE so far mind:

That is a pretty nice drop from yesterday's dismal close. There is panic in the markets and more importantly there are robots and margin calls. I think the combination of these two is not working out so well. The robots sell and buy to increase the size of the waves, which in turn force more margin calls on leverage investors - which has driven volatility up to 2008 highs.

Clearly, the macro picture is not helping and with civil disorder across the UK even without the impending collapse of the Euro and Dollar the markets would be down three figures today in any event.

Cant' see anything that is going to end this anytime soon; good sign that as a contrarian indicator. Mind you I thought yesterday would be the ow-off capitulation so my judgement is not to be trusted at the moment.


Old BE said...

When Mr Drew predicted fighting in the street I bet he didn't think it would be under 18s armed with Blackberrys!

CityUnslicker said...

Agree- same thought crossed my mind.

Footie gmae cancelled, at least one prediction right.

Army needed now, never said it before; but otherwise I fear vigilantes groups will form and then it is the end of civilisation if we are down to random thug groups vying for territory.

Nick Drew said...

the under-18s are a major worry (and the technology may still be their undoing)

but it's the older 'fight directors' that are the bigger problem

what's amazing is that this has completely outstripped any political impetus. The Left has longed for this day, and when it came they had absolutely no influence in it at all

I take a crumb of comfort from that: the TUC will struggle to mount 'days of action' now - they are actually too responsible. Anarchy all the way from here

Croydon post to follow shortly: & CU you are right abt vigilantes ...

Nick Drew said...

when I say 'no influence', of course au fond the left was, over the decades, a major cause - but not a proximate one, as they would have hoped

CityUnslicker said...

I think the Gov should simply tell blackberry to switch off BBM for a few days, that would help - tha or withdraw their licence to sell phones.

Extreme times these.

roym said...

Nick, are we not in danger of over-interpreting random chav/feral opportunism as somehow bringing down the system?

reading around this morning, i see commentators all leaping to bash their own favourite bugbear, be it immigration, lack of societal engagement or the swingeing cuts in public services. i suspect that it will take quite a while to synthesise just why a police operation to apprehend a gun carrying alleged organised criminal lead to reeves corner being burnt to the ground.

Re FTSE; going to have to buy some oversold stocks soon. have held long this far.

hatfield girl said...

In our part of London they've smashed in the windows of Gay's the Word and steamed the off licence next door to Judd books. Nothing compared to burning down the once flagship department store of the London Co-operative Society, but what a nasty bunch of homophobic drunks.

And the left makes excuses for these people?

Nick Drew said...

roy - oh yes, if we had a week of torrential rain this would quickly be doused for the time being (I am not being facetious here)

but I do think we see a clear enough strain of quite virulent anarchy (a bit of a catch-all word, it's got more to it than that of course) to be certain, at the very least, that it is real and contagious if not ultimately fatal to the body civic & politic

what people will do as a mob, whilst real enough in its own ugly but limited way, is rarely concrete or of substance (cf Jerusalem a couple of millenia ago)

but the fact of them being willing to form mobs so readily is, well, a fact, and one that doesn't obtain all the time hereabouts

but I recall so clearly the agitators of the early & mid 1970s dreaming of this - some capital-A Anarchists, mostly assorted Trots: they hoped there hour had come in with the miners in 1984, but those hopes were dashed for a quarter-century ...

I'm posting shortly on the Croydon thing specifically: there are a couple of angles that might (perhaps, maybe) mean something a bit more than just major-league impromptu retail opportunities

Nick Drew said...

HG, if you are in England then I have emailed you an earnest recommendation that you hasten to Harrogate for an excellent exhibition of Atkinson Grimshaw works

Budgie said...

My meagre pension has fallen along with the FTSE. And my shares are terrible. Trouble is I expected something like this, but with the drift downwards since February I have been caught off guard. Oh woe is me.

However if the euro breaks up it will have been worth it.

And what are people going to put their money in instead? Cash? Really? Alternatives? Land is good but has low returns in this country. Property is going down (again). Gold is a bubble. Banks? - you have to be joking. So its cars and foreign holidays again - anyone give me a loan?

Oh, wait a minute ....

Anonymous said...

Out here is the shires, its nice and peaceful.

No-one would dare take on the massed handbags of the local conservative party's woman section.

andrew said...

In Bristol, one burning wheelie bin on gloucester road, a couple of shop fronts in cabot circus, a green traffic light by debenhams. Not the end of civilization.

It is unwise to blame this on the left just as it is unwise for the left to blame this on Govt cutbacks.

I blame it on a mass cultural sense of entitlement that has not been met by reality.
We cannot all be finalists on the X Factor - but enough people have been led to believe they could be.
When you left university ~20 years ago, you could easily fall into a good job - you were in the top 10% of your cohort.
Now you are in the top 50% and will struggle to get a reasonable job.

Dark clouds are gathering behind all this. One meme that is gathering here - overheard by myself in Tesco 30 mins ago and earlier at a bus stop by a colleague
"well, I'm not being racist or anything, but they were all black on TV last night"

My spreadsheets (often wrong) say there will be more falls and buy at ~4400

Old BE said...

HG, you must live extremely close to my dad's 1970s bachelor pad!

Jan said...

Following on from Andrew....just listened to a discussion on Radio 4 You & Yours....no-one really gets it.

Society is getting back ie reaping what has been sown ie greedy middle class for the most part snouts in troughs (MPs/bankers/CEOs etc etc with Rolex watches/bling/posh houses etc etc/Chipping Norton set/Kirstie Allsop et al rant....rant) all on expense accounts; rotten press (Murdoch and all the others) all getting on by cheating and lying (and sleeping) their way to the top......lousy jobs for the rest in windowless offices with timed fag/toilet breaks no ounce of individuality or creativity in Mcjobs or benefits as a way of life. Education similarly straitjacketed all teachers must adhere to national curriculum no inspiration allowed all must achieve straight As in subjects which bear little relation to the real world for the average bod...I could go on....I think you get the gist..whatever happened to our values?

andrew said...

whatever happened to our values?
... They have changed.

Whether that is for the better or not is for debate.

What I would point out is that even 40 years ago there were fairly clear 'tram-lines' for people to follow in their lives from school to death. Some would rebel against this, but most did not.

This is no longer the case.

If "we are all middle class now" (c) T Blair 1999, well, there are only so many jobs that can be considered 'middle class' - otherwise haw do you know what you are?
This means there are a lot of people doing middle class jobs who really hope for something else and a lot of people not doing middle class jobs who spent a fair amount of their life expecting they would.

We forgot social mobility goes both ways, and with better education, you have a better sense of entitlement and expectation of life.

The sad thing is that the discussion degenerates so quickly.
(no reference to any post here)

This is not just an English phenomenon. The French are much more known for social unrest and just you wait until their AAA rating gets downgraded and they are forced to make savage budget cuts.