Never let it be said that we push a consistent party line here. On the one hand, CU shares his up-beat fortunes (and occasional misfortunes) in the equities. I on the other offer doom, gloom and precious metals. In the middle, Mr Q keeps our spirits up with tales from the High Street and the doings of Brownadder.
Following CU's latest update, a quick word about the preciousss. Things were looking toppy at the start of the week, and so it proved. I have come to view silver as the vehicle for in-and-out moves, and for once I sold at the top (having missed that trick on 1 May): the Drew silver account is a bit more than 40% up on the year. As anyone can figure out, that is by no means optimal, proving I am no trader.
But I have left the longstanding gold position in place, and thus missed out on the 20:20-hindsight 10%-in-2-days on offer. Why ?
Because from where I am sitting, gold looks inexorable. Look at the chart (source: 'economicfreefall') - what is a 10% twitch against that trend ? Less than the previous 2 weeks gains, that's what. The bottom line approximates very closely to the 144-day moving average, the significance of which is that silver bottomed on the 144MA after the May massacre, and then resumed its bumpy ascent.
There was, in my view, no way that 2008-9 was just a nasty bout of recession. The only trick up the sleeves of Gordon 'PFI' Brown, or Ben 'helicopter' Bernanke or whomever, is that dealing properly with problems can generally be postponed. For a bit. Theories of what is happening abound: here's one you may care to read.
Sometimes, to quote Brute Anderson from the DTel yesterday, what's needed is "some old-fashioned Tory pessimism".