Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Equity Trading Mea Culpa, Part 11
A painful lesson has since been learnt, greed is not good.
Unfortunately a couple my main holdings dived so quickly that selling out was not even really possible. So now at 50% down on the year, my portfolio continues to flatline and gone are the day so gleefully updating the blog! Instead, it is with a deep sigh that I try and make the best of things.
Clearly the Euro-area break-up (which I foretold, to make matters worse, not even taking my own advice, moronic as even my wife reminds me) is going to be with us for a good few months yet and may well precipitate an even bigger fall in equities.
On the other hand, constant money printing by the Bank of England also will help to temper any falls and make equities a good long-term bet. Certainly UK Gilts cannot go up in price anymore. But whilst the markets rage, there is little to do.
In amongst some disastrous holdings, CAZA, AST, which are both 80% down on the year and unlikely to revive within 12 months, there are some good bets still, particularly at these prices:
EMED - A new Spanish Government means that surely within a few months permission to start mining at Rio Tinto will be given. With the price at 7p and operating profits for year one expected to be worth that 3p per share, there is a long way to go for this one. Long time readers though will note I could have written this 3 years ago more or less...hope springs eternal.
GKP - Actually flat on the year, finding billions of barrels of precious oil every few months makes this a monster bet. Lots of complex politics in Iraq holds it back, but with Exxon moving into Kurdistan a break in the political deadlock maybe approaching - with that this is another share that could easily double from its current price.
XEL - Xcite Energy, sigh, what a rubbish year after a good start. Still though next year will see it start producing 20,000 barrels of oil a day in the North Sea and a become a solid safe company. The highs of 425p per share are a long way off. But at 118p today there is huge upside with a 6 or 12 month view.
At least everyone is losing, even Anthony Bolton.