Tuesday, 6 December 2011
Trading Update 2012 - Head in Hands epiphany
Far too much risk in my portfolio tied in with a very unlucky streak of results has done for me. Now looking at a portfolio at 55% down and having to raid it for funds too, so yuck.
In order of magnitude of bad calls:
CAZA - Bought in far to high on hopes of an big oil hit in the USA. A large drilling programme for 2011 has netted about 1000 barrels of oil per day rather than the 10-20k hoped for. In a harsh market the shar enow trades below its cash levels. 80% loss, little chance of clawing back to 50% in 2012. At least the company still has cash.
XEL (Xcite) - After a stunning 2010, a disastrous 2012. Poor handling of PR and finance requirements has left he company floundering 80% off it annual highs. This after a major North Sea oil discovery. All my losses are profits only so at least that is something, but with little news flow the shareprice keeps falling. perhaps back to the 50p where I bought in in 2009. Big lesson in selling more at the highs here.
EMED - Still awaiting permitting after 3 years. 30% down on the year, but at least with good hopes of major progress next year, albeit with a still high risk of not getting the permits in time.
XTR (Xtract) - Not so bad, still down about 30% on the year, but at least I sold at a large profit when the share went up to 5p and not the 2p it currently is. Actually, with good prospects for drilling in the North Sea 2012 could be a better year.
AST (Ascent) - The weirdest share of the year, found the largest onshore tight gas field in Europe - but it took a while to get results and the share price collapsed in the meantime from 7p to 2p. Even with the company making news it has recovered only to 3p. Bizarre one, again all shares here free as I have sold out at different points.
and one good call (but no trades so does not count as I just hold from last year)...
GKP (GKP) - Flat on the year, billions of barrels of oil in Kurdistan. Needs political resolution in Iraq that has not been forthcoming for 2 years. But the huge amount of oil underlines the price - as soon as the Iraqi politicians get an agreement, of which there appear to be signs of this happening at long last, the company will be taken out - probably at about £3 versus the current £1.80. So one of my major investments at least is in the blue.
I think Nick Drew's precious metals strategy has been somewhat more successful, so I owe him a beer on our annual bet....