Friday 25 January 2013

Adroit Dealings On Europe

However it came about; however reluctant he was to do it, the Cameron 'initiative' is a Good Thing. The cat is among the pigeons, and the ensuing disturbance will throw up who-knows-what.  

The reflex of a startled bird is of course to poop, but we can laugh confidently as the snarling and sniping 'project' promoters threaten to crap all over us. They can't be getting any pleasure from the better-informed public commentary: Raedwald has a good piece on how the intelligent European press knows the score. All manner of insights and opportunities will emerge as the dust and feathers begin to clear. 

Many thought 2010 was the election to lose, including many of our C@W regulars; but I always maintained, and still do, that you are better holding the levers of power - provided you know what to do with them. The ability to take meaningful initiatives is the prerogative of Government.   
That's why my scorn is greatest for Osborne, who sold himself aggressively as a Strategic Genius, and so was given total control of the Strategic Initiatives brief - on which he has singularly failed to deliver.  He really is just the student politician he appears to be, all tactics, spite and silly sneers.  Trumping Brown on inheritance tax was a wizard wheeze, but it doesn't put him in Mandelson's bracket (if you see what I mean).  Mercifully a real strategist has come to town, and if Miliband and Clegg are troubled now (as they clearly are) they will enjoy little sleep on the long road to 2015.

The despair over Cameron has frequently stemmed from his inability to be ruthless with his friends.  But Osborne has let him down; the Brooks woman was nearly disastrous for him; and Clegg's treachery over boundary changes is as big a political betrayal as any of recent years.  We may hope (upon hope) he has learned these hard lessons, and is up for the coming war of euro-manoeuvres.

For now, I offer the following: the precedent of France's stance in NATO.  For decades, France was 'in, but semi-detached' - and they really were in.  When a soldier I met French officers at all sorts of important gatherings - and they were keen to be there; and the rest were pleased they were there.  They maintained a decent division for deployment in Germany, and stuck to NATO protocols. The proof of the effectiveness of this, when the moment came, was how seamlessly they fitted into Schwarzkopf's great campaign for the liberation of Kuwait in 1991 - which was complex, successful, and entirely run using NATO doctrines and protocols.

A rather pertinent model for viable and constructive semi-detached positioning in a European context, I suggest.  And that's if we need to be semi-detached: I'd say there's a decent chance the next 3 years will throw up opportunities for something even better.  Over to Dave: no quarter for Clegg; wean yourself off Osborne; get in the habit of taking proper advice - and march towards the sound of gunfire.

ND

22 comments:

Timbo614 said...

As you say... I liked the speech, actually read the transcript, I know it has been savaged as being "all things to everyone" but what he has actually done is throw an awful lot of cards up in the air(that needed throwing). Now we need to see how they land and who catches them. We can but hope that some get to the right places...Merkel and a few others seems to have caught a couple already.

Blue Eyes said...

Yes, 100% agree ND.

Cameron has done far better by playing it this way on Europe than anyone could have hoped. At worst we get to leave within five years. At best the Eurokaleidoscope may shift towards a looser, freer more national-parliamentary EU.

Agree about Osborne. Now would be a great time to ditch Osborne and bring in a new Secretary of State for the Economy with a superministry in charge of planning reform, deregulation and actually implementing some spending cuts while also building some new roads, rails and airports near London.

Who could possibly be suitable?

Jan said...

Maybe it's time to make some other friends in Europe eg Sweden, Finland etc as some of them may agree with some of what Dave wants and there's strength in numbers. Then we might not be viewed as the bolshie outsider and can work towards some constructive changes.

roym said...

lovely writing ND.

but Cleggs treachery? didnt cam screw him over electoral and lords reform? judging by the relaunch of coalition 2.0 theyre still bessie mates.

@Jan
every time of late when we look like getting others to join our gang, they leave us jilted. what is it that they want?

what Blue Eyes says would be great, but appears to be logically impossible.

Nick Drew said...

Timbo, BE - thanks. suitable? - what a pity Mr Q is such a confirmed back-bencher

(economic super-ministry ? hmmm - been tried before, with George Brown. The Treasury Always Wins)

Jan - yes indeed: one of Drew's Laws of Politics is - a high-profile move flushes out foes - and friends

more thanks, Roy. But no, I don't believe so. The Coalition agreement delivered the promised AV referendum and though Crapper Huhne *spits* tried to claim that morally the Tories should support it, that was never the understanding.

The Lords thing is odd. Although, again, the Tories have lived to the letter of the Agreement, apparently after the AV debacle, Dave said we must do something nice for Nick (a fine global principle which I advocate personally all the time - but on this occasion - why?) and what Cleggy asked for was Lords Reform - and we get back to the 'friends' thing, Dave said 'yes' to something he couldn't deliver

in any event - see the link - my insiders tell me the Libs were always going to find a pretext to renege, because boundary changes would Wipe Them Out (hence my anger with Osborne)

bessie mates? Clegg has literally nowhere else to go: the Libs may reckon they'll be in govt with Lab next time, but it won't be under Clegg

idle said...

Boy George - "student politician... all tactics, spite and silly sneers".

Yes, perfectly put. I don't know when this penny will drop with Cameron, but Osborne is an election-losing liability. Perhaps Crosby is the man to tell Dave, forthrightly.

Osborne is the current proof of why there should NOT be an eceonomic super-ministry. And look what happened when the misanthrope Brown had almost total control over domestic policy....

Anonymous said...

Nick I had a little look at what degree Gideon attained, the same as Gordo, Modern History, a 2nd class Hons. no sign of an economics degree, neither did Gordo. We all know who was the one who advised Gordo who had a PPE 1st degree one Ed Balls, but who is behind Gideon, he is the front man but who is behind him they should equally accept the blame. I am not a politician of any party so I am not totally partisan, but I would guess Gideon (his advisoer/s is trying to do what happened in the 80's, it sort of worked then but at a price but things are not the same as the 80's, true the debt is there but it came from a different quarter.

Electro-Kevin said...

The speech was written by a rather beautiful young lady called Clare Foges.

Not that anything so superficial as beauty and 30-something pertness should have anything to do with it, oh no, no, no ... *shakes head like Churchill dog*

Could we 2010 and Ten-ers be wrong ?

Well I usually am on most things - except staying the right side of red signals which, bearing in mind my job, is a good thing.

P'raps I should stick to what I'm paid for rather than spouting drivel on these blogs.

Glad to admit it.

There's a spring in my step for sure.

Sackerson said...

I think Ozzers is the one they sent out to get sandwiches and extra drink, at the Bullers.

andrew said...

Thank you EK

Her poetry is not very good
... but nowhere near as bad as mine.

Electro-Kevin said...

Andrew - thanks for the thanks.

A rare thing on my Scout Group though rather more forthcoming on my trade union duties.

Are middle-class parents shit or working class union members normal ?

Either way - after six years on both - I've quit. Fed up with sour faces and lack of support.

My point here ?

Oh yes.

National insurance.

Not likely to transmogriphy into state pensions is it ?

Which means that the average person is, in fact, paying humungous amounts in direct taxation. 60% in my case ???

Whichever way the referendum goes (and I'll shut my gob forever should it go federalist) why should the hard-pressed and - soon to be impoverished - British public have to pay for two governments ?

Electro-Kevin said...

To clarify:

I've been a Scout Group chairman and an Aslef H&S rep simultaneously for the past six years and I'm entirely fucked off with both.

Aslef gave the better support on retirement though neither were much use when dealing with such things as clearing weeds, fixing leaks, sorting out sunblinds, shift patterns, night duty shed turns, raising funds, fronting out managers, dealing with councils

GIVING THANKS TO ME !!!

The average British person is wind and piss as far as I'm concerned.

Bill Quango MP said...

Quit both Kev?

That's a turnup.

Anonymous said...

Kev, it looks as someone has run over your toes, and not satisfied with that given them a good stamping. Commiserations. I could tell tales from the past that I have experienced, the great Bristish public are good at making big noise when complaining about something but when in came to doing something about it they backed down.

rwendland said...

Anonymous, Re Gordo's degree. Remember he started Uni at age 16 after going to the strange express school experiment. So he got his first degree at age 19 when most students were getting pissed in their first year - and with one eye near blind and a long hospital stint. He went on to get a 1st for his MA at age 21, then onto PhD. I think that all counts as a proper brainbox.

Hadn't realised George only got a 2:1, and wanted to be a journo. Rejected for a place on The Times trainee scheme as well I see. Lucky for him a friend helped him get a job at Conservative Central Office.

Nick Drew said...

Kev - if it's any consolation, I've been in and out of voluntary activities meself - and back in again, I never learn

there are always openings for people of goodwill: the respite, you have to make for yourself

I am a proper conservative, always realistic (or pessimistic, to taste) about human nature, so rarely disappointed ...

Budgie said...

I was surprised by how candid Cameron's speech was. However it was only an "intentions" speech, the reality is yet to come.

Will he get any concessions from the EU? The rules say he can't except via a new treaty, ratified by all 28 (with attendant referendums). I suggest the EU (EZ?) elite will bend the rules because on balance it's less trouble for them to keep the UK onboard than for us to leave.

Osborne does look like a middle class twit who thinks he is an upper class twit who thinks that throwing bread rolls is hilarious. But that does not make Cameron good.

James Higham said...

A poll would be interesting on who was worst - Blair, Brown or Cameron.

Ryan said...

Electro Kevin,

You have my sympathy. Unfortunately it is also my experience that the Anglo-Saxons, wherever they settle in the world, tend to be a bunchy of whingers that complain about everything but will not organise themselves to do anything about it themselves. Witness the ridiculous rise of immigration - the average Anglo-Saxon Brit will just have a good moan about it but not even a handfull will get together to take any kind of diredct action. Just a few British people making it clear that the 4million recent immigrants "aren't really that welcome here" would reduce the numbers to the level where only the truly committed would consider the UK an escape route.

Britain only advances by its outstanding individuals, not by its willingness to apply concerted pressure at a required point of action.

Ryan said...

I think maybe Cameron has screwed the Tory party. Either the Conservatives will not deliver on a referendum - which would split the party and lose them a huge proportion of their core voter base. Or they deliver on a referendum and we get to witness the Tory party tearing itself in two as the two sides become increasingly bitter over the whole process of the referendum for years.

Agence communication said...

"" That's why my scorn is greatest for Osborne, who sold himself aggressively as a Strategic Genius, and so was given total control of the Strategic Initiatives brief - on which he has singularly failed to deliver. He really is just the student politician he appears to be, all tactics, spite and silly sneers. Trumping Brown on inheritance tax was a wizard wheeze, but it doesn't put him in Mandelson's bracket (if you see what I mean). Mercifully a real strategist has come to town, and if Miliband and Clegg are troubled now (as they clearly are) they will enjoy little sleep on the long road to 2015.

The despair over Cameron has frequently stemmed from his inability to be ruthless with his friends. But Osborne has let him down; the Brooks woman was nearly disastrous for him; and Clegg's treachery over boundary changes is as big a political betrayal as any of recent years. We may hope (upon hope) he has learned these hard lessons, and is up for the coming war of euro-manoeuvres.

""

Anonymous said...

"" That's why my scorn is greatest for Osborne, who sold himself aggressively as a Strategic Genius, and so was given total control of the Strategic Initiatives brief - on which he has singularly failed to deliver. He really is just the student politician he appears to be, all tactics, spite and silly sneers. Trumping Brown on inheritance tax was a wizard wheeze, but it doesn't put him in Mandelson's bracket (if you see what I mean). Mercifully a real strategist has come to town, and if Miliband and Clegg are troubled now (as they clearly are) they will enjoy little sleep on the long road to 2015.

The despair over Cameron has frequently stemmed from his inability to be ruthless with his friends. But Osborne has let him down; the Brooks woman was nearly disastrous for him; and Clegg's treachery over boundary changes is as big a political betrayal as any of recent years. We may hope (upon hope) he has learned these hard lessons, and is up for the coming war of euro-manoeuvres.

""