Friday 1 March 2013

BEastleigh UKIP

The last time I can recall voting it was for some guy called Boris Johnson to be Mayor of London and for a UKIP candidate in the assembly vote. It's sometime ago as I have not lived in London for a few years now!

So one would think I would be happy at the UKIP vote in the Eastleigh by-election - but in reality this is still a very damp squib.

For the simple truth is who exactly were people to vote for in this constituency if they wanted to vote against the Government? Labour are dead in the south of England; they even chose a comedian as candidate to prove the point.

Both the normal contesting parties are IN government. Worse the traditional place for a wasted protest vote is the Liberal Democrats.

No wonder it was a confused electorate. They had to find a whole new protest party and, lo, in view come UKIP. of course, one thing to note is that UKIP are in favour of austerity, so, rather oddly, this is not a vote against austerity; but of course as a protest against the Government it is. Oh dear, I think I need a lie down...

The only really bad news is for the Tories here and the bad news is that with every increasing UKIP victory and the European Elections coming up, the chance for some sort of deal with UKIP has now gone. So they are here to stay and will keep Conservatives out of Government potentially for a long-time.

It's another big strategic mistake, along with that of losing the boundary review, that will restrict the Tory future.

21 comments:

Blue Eyes said...

OK so Eastleigh isn't "natural" Tory territory, or maybe it is with that many UKIP votes! The Tories have a serious problem which is that unlike Labour in the 1990s there is somewhere else for their disgruntled support to go. Being an Old Tory when the New Tories are sort of in government must be very frustrating, too.

We come back to Osborne's master strategy. Instead of making a virtue of the necessity of economic and fiscal reforms, Osborne put on his fake brave face and told us the cupboard was bare. It was the wrong strategy to win an election in 2010 and it will be the wrong strategy to win an election in 2015.

People said at the start of the government that it was trying to do too much too quickly. But it's made literally zero progress on its central deficit-cutting policy. Which idiot predicted boom times just around the corner in order to make eliminating the deficit easy? Why didn't the Tories propose some real reforms and some real cuts? What happened to the bonfire of the QUANGOs (not the Quangos, they are very nice people) What happened to the Great Repeal Bill?

The list of inaction goes on. It doesn't surprise me at all that people have recorded a protest against the Tories.

It's just depressing that the upshot is likely to be a Lib-Lab coalition next time around. Unless Cameron comes up with something distinctive. It may be too late.

James Higham said...

They ARE the new conservatives. The old ones are dead and gone, sadly thanks to Pink Dave and mates.

SumoKing said...

(edit- sorry I sort of spacked out a bit and reverted to sweary glaswegian)

"It's just depressing that the upshot is likely to be a Lib-Lab coalition next time around. Unless Cameron comes up with something distinctive. It may be too late."

And the difference will be SFA.

"oh will we give some extra benefit money to families or will we scrap that and give a tax break break to married couples (which amounts to the same thing)"

Hmmm, let me think, I'm not married, I haven't shat out 5 kids (fat lot of good your recycling bin will do with 5 more mouths on the planet you sanctimonious bastards!), I had the sheer fcuking aduacity to attend a University, having sat down at 17 and though "bugger me, not a lot of low skill jobs sticking round are there? could maybe nail some wood together but that seems a bit vulnerable, I know, Uni, Law let's give that a bash, there are no shortage of deluded nutters happy to throw cash at 5mm land disputes, sorted.....

oh but yeah, I'll get totally raped to pay for stay at home mums that are now the holy legion of hardworking pensioners who didn't bother to plan for retirement and to bail out PPI banks and to pay for the fcuking heap of wank eurofighter and for broadband for rich people who want to live in the countryside but who don't want to pay for their own internet connection, the same folk whining about how easy exams are but who mysteriously, despite having GUIs that a 4 year old can work can't put anti virus or the child lock on their computers!!!"

Yeah, it'll be really different under the red tories

Blue Eyes said...

I don't know about the meaning of words in Glaswegian, but from where in my comment did you infer that I thought a Lib-Lab coalition would be completely different? Maybe your education should have started with learning to read?

SumoKing said...

BE

There should be interweb code for depressed sigh. Where I wrote "the difference will be SFA" that was done with a resigned "humpf" but then the rage took hold and the following isn't really directed at anyone or thing other than the world in general (FAOD I'm not, for example, saying you are a sanctimonious recycling hypocrite, I just don't know that much about you).

(although I'm not sure it's all that clear whether you are saying it'll be too late for cameron or too late to avoid lab-lib)

Bill Quango MP said...

SumoKing : Fantastic comment. Laugh a minute.

The international sign for ennui is
~€~

Blue Eyes said...

What's the internet sign for "why did you put my comment in quotes then if you weren't responding to it?"?

OK I'll start my comment again.

It would be *depressing* if the next election threw out a Lab or a Lib-Lab government because it would have meant that a period of Tories in office would have been wasted and little positive would have come from it.

The Tories have produced one excellent policy that I can name and that is the expansion of Academies and Free Schools. Most of the rest is the same as Labour would have produced.

Tory voters expect a Tory government to make free-market reforms and defend sensible economic policy. George Osborne has accepted that he won't make a serious dent in the public sector and the rest have retreated from serious deregulation.

If they lose to the other lefties in 2015 then we won't see another conservative government for another ten years at least.

It is probably too late now for any new radicalism to have a positive effect by the time of the next election.

hovis said...

BE : Too late for it to have effect for an election, not tool late for it to eventually take effect. Remember there is generally inertia in repealing statutes, so get them in now and likely they may remain.

CityUnslicker said...

no chance of a coalition next time, on current boundaries it is a very rare event - just because we have one now we think its likley. Nailed on Labour win.

I totally agree with BE, complete waste of time for the most part.

Labour will be laughing as the Eu screws the bankers and crying when their tax honeypot is no more.

At least it will be a good watch with some popcorn.

Anonymous said...

It's entertaining watching the Tories claim UKIP are a protest party still, there is a certain amount of failure to accept reality from the Cameroons.

The Tories have horribly screwed everything up, their first two years should have been tax cuts for the lower/middle earners and business and targeted cuts. A new quango auditing the cuts ought to have been interesting, especially when Labour councils started finding their spending plans leaked to the local paper who may just enquire when Childrens Services is being cut yet a truckload of iPads have appeared... Neatly neutering the political cuts some councils have enacted, whilst placing the spotlight on Labour spending.

Even with gay marriage they've ballsed it up - a simple separation between the legal and religious aspects would have sufficed, ensuring no religion could claim it would be forced to marry anyone it didn't want to whilst also allowing same-sex marriage and even poly marriages - by deciding on a state heavy bit of legislation.

I really don't see a large Labour majority next election, if not a Lib-Lad coalition I can see Labour offering up a couple of briefs to the Lib Dems in exchange for support.

Frankly the Tories have done cock all to deserve another 5 years, Osborne's student politics and Cameron's pandering to cuddlier politics at a time we need nasty, effective and efficient have pretty much pissed away any chance of re-election.

Anonymous said...

rich kids playing at politics do not a government make

Electro-Kevin said...

It must be remembered that the Tories aren't real Tories.

So would it really be much of a loss ?

andrew said...

The loss is 5 years where We have not moved on
Some think that if lab had won we would be in deep trouble by now and the full folly of their policies would be exposed
Some think that if the cons had won the boundaries of the state would have been rolled back and a new generation of entrepreneur would have been freed

Personally I think neither side have any particulate distinctive ideas (for the most part. Education excepted) or are actually that different

And this is why There is a lack of interest. Thank God for ukip. I do not agree with them but at least they are articulating what a lot of people want.

Budgie said...

Cameron said he was heir to Blair. Blair's object was to destroy the Conservative party. Cameron is just carrying on with Blair's task. He is succeeding. I did warn you.

Phil said...

Still can't believe that the Tories were stupid enough to oppose AV. AV would probably have given them Eastleigh (anyone know if any polling was done on that front?)

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"The only really bad news is for the Tories here and the bad news is that with every increasing UKIP victory and the European Elections coming up, the chance for some sort of deal with UKIP has now gone"

Agence communication said...

great to see that "" For the simple truth is who exactly were people to vote for in this constituency if they wanted to vote against the Government? Labour are dead in the south of England; they even chose a comedian as candidate to prove the point.

Both the normal contesting parties are IN government. Worse the traditional place for a wasted protest vote is the Liberal Democrats. ""