Friday 1 March 2013
So one would think I would be happy at the UKIP vote in the Eastleigh by-election - but in reality this is still a very damp squib.
For the simple truth is who exactly were people to vote for in this constituency if they wanted to vote against the Government? Labour are dead in the south of England; they even chose a comedian as candidate to prove the point.
Both the normal contesting parties are IN government. Worse the traditional place for a wasted protest vote is the Liberal Democrats.
No wonder it was a confused electorate. They had to find a whole new protest party and, lo, in view come UKIP. of course, one thing to note is that UKIP are in favour of austerity, so, rather oddly, this is not a vote against austerity; but of course as a protest against the Government it is. Oh dear, I think I need a lie down...
The only really bad news is for the Tories here and the bad news is that with every increasing UKIP victory and the European Elections coming up, the chance for some sort of deal with UKIP has now gone. So they are here to stay and will keep Conservatives out of Government potentially for a long-time.
It's another big strategic mistake, along with that of losing the boundary review, that will restrict the Tory future.