Tuesday, 10 September 2013

22 September: What Happens Next?

In case you hadn't clocked it, the German go to the polls on that day.  We are told that everything has been put on hold in the EU for fear of startling the Pferde, but that all manner of horrors will be unleashed thereafter.

So - what do we reckon will happen after that - by the end of the month ?  By Christmas ?   We'll be taking notes and checking back as our fate unfolds.  Or perhaps more imminently, the fate of the Greeks ...



James Higham said...

What would bulls say? What would bears?

Nick Drew said...

James - some suggestions to start the ball rolling

Bull: she actually means it when she hints that the German Energiewende needs to be heavily scaled down, if not actually thrown into reverse

Bear: she is willing to throw more of the German economy onto the bonfire to keep the Euro warm

Anonymous said...

"I know I said that the ECB would never print money, and that the German taxpayer would never bail out Eurozone countries, but ..."

Sackerson said...

Irrespective of what leaders do, what do we imagine their senior civil servants are advising?

Blue Eyes said...

ND, what a horrible question!

Greece seems to have got itself into a position where a default would not be a disaster (primary budget surplus) so it could pull the trigger before Germany does.

The others - Portugal, Spain - not so much. CU was always right when he said it would be Spain wotdidit.

However the US and UK show the way. More Euro QE could save the day. OK so it would leave the treaties in tatters (no bail-outs, no monetisation remember) but it might just work.

Of course the German economy could just collapse under the weight of having no electricity and all bets are off. Did you watch Blackout last night?

Nick Drew said...

No, I didn't, it was tempting (slightly) but life's too short

and maybe I was right because the reviews weren't very good (what did you think ?)

anyhow, if it was a lurid as I have read, it's just an illustration of why the government will make sure it never happens - at any cost

(this will include using ever increasing amounts of diesel generation as fall-back ! - and to hell with CO2 emissions and cost

as even tinpot dictators know - (say after me) - when the lights go out, the government goes out ...

Caroline Lucas. ARP Warden said...

Put that light out!

Ryan said...

The fundamental problem with the Euro is that all the money can and does flow towards the strongest part of the economy in the zone. Great for Germany - at least until they have to cope with the rest of Europe turning up on their doorstep looking for a job.

We see the same problem in the "single currency" of the UK, where all the money tends to flow towards London.

The great thing about having your own currency is that in the end, no matter how tortuous the journey in between, a £ made in the UK can only be spent in the UK. So all our international trade exists in a closed loop. Not so for the peripheral nations of the EZ.

Anonymous said...

Ryan - "a £ made in the UK can only be spent in the UK"

I guess it's swapped for some other currency before being remitted to Poland, Latvia, Pakistan, Philippines, Somalia etc.

Has anyone done any analysis on remittance amounts and their impact on the UK economy?