Friday 27 June 2014

Who governs?

Well Mr Cameron. That didn't go well. 
The collective EU don't appear to be listening. 

Not a surprise. Whatever they say in private, in public, they don't want to associate with you. 
  As we said a while back on this blog, the EU leaders don't expect you to be here next year. They are waiting for Mr Miliband,. Or even better, Mr Miliband and Mr Farron in a libby-labby-luvvie pact that will have EU reform/membership referendum on page 68 of their 50 page manifesto.

It was a good effort, but its time to stop assaulting that entrenched and heavily defended position. Time for some old fashioned flanking maneuvers. Want to know how to take out the Europe Elite, Miliband & UKIP, with the happy by product of winning an election? 

Ok then..

1. have a pact with Farage. Not just a pact. An alliance. A proper alliance. Offer 2 guaranteed seats to UKIP. Let Farage and Nutall pick a lib/con/ukip marginal and tell them no official Tory candidate will stand against them.

2. Then.. time for some realism. The EU battle is being lost. The media like to portray your attempts at negotiations as humiliating failure. Turn that to a strength. Book some good old fashioned, all channel, all radio, online Prime Minister's talk to the nation. Heavily trailed in the media say you have something very urgent that you wish to share with the nation and it will be on 'x' day at 'x' time - just before Eastenders is a good slot.

3. Announce in your best Prime Ministerial fashion that negotiations have failed. That you must now accept that the EU will not, at this time, accept reform. Explain that you are now concerned over who actually is going to govern Britain. Westminster or Brussels? 
"Who Governs?"
Therefore you are proposing a referendum on the UK's continued membership, to take place within 6 months of the election. 

4. Explain that although this may not be new news, the fact you have asked Mr Farage of the UKIP to lead the case for UK exit is. Say {if you wish] that you will lead the case for remaining. But give the actual date for a referendum.

5. Explain that, as it stands, the conservatives are, despite the improving economy, public sector reforms, reduced unemployment, blah blah blah, unlikely to win the election due to the continued rise of UKIP. So.. as Labour are very unlikely to offer a referendum, and the Liberals NEVER will, you have entered into a pact with UKIP, on the simple promise, only, of delivering this referendum.
Both leaders will address their own members in due course to explain what has been agreed. But for the man in the street all that has occurred is that If the conservatives win the election, the date for that referendum is x.
And give your word {without using cast iron} that the referendum will be priority number 1, above all other issues, once the new government is in place. Stress that Farage is being brought in to take the vote forward. to organise it for the government.

Now, you'll have to square this with the pro-euro Tories. very difficult. But again, some realism. They will be free to campaign however they like. Can make whatever case they like. No government line. And also remind them that they are unlikely to be in government without this deal. 

This move should restore the balance. The Mail and Sun and possibly the Times will be back on side. The Telegraph has gone all guardian so who knows.  But this deal before the election will make existing  Lib Dem voters think twice. A vote for Clegg is a vote for 'In'. 
I expect the Miliband camp to collapse into chaos as usual, before trying to have it both ways and eventually coming out with a pro Europe line. 
Should set the camps back into the pre-UKIP era.

Farage will have the hardest time, convincing his anti-all government protest voters to remain. But that's his problem.
The EU, finally understanding that this might actually be it, may just give enough ground to allow the UK to remain in the EU, but on a different deal. 

Whatever.. labour are weakened, Liberals are boxed ever tighter into their 8% vote share, UKIP voters return, the referendum will be held, you will win the election and the EU question that has plagued British politics for thirty years is finally answered once and for all.


Peter Whale said...

Gets my vote.

Raedwald said...

Good plan.

Blue Eyes said...

I have a simpler idea: Cameron does pretty much the same but announces now that the referendum will be on the same day as the general, with the bill being put to Parliament immediately.

CityUnslicker said...

I am with BE. If he wants to win it the sooner the better the referendum.

Sound plan though, so it will never happen.

andrew said...

well, if it really is that important, and that much of a shock that junkers is in, what about 18 sep 2014.

- all the europhiles will be in their maison de vacances

- something less important is happening that day

btw, like the {

Nick Drew said...

he certainly needs to pull a stroke, and that's the power of government - being best placed to take initiatives: let us hope someone (cleverer than Osborne) is already on the case

as a nit-pick, I'd say Farage is capable of messing up your plan in several ways, it puts huge power in his hands the day your go-between even sidles up to him

factor in also that Clegg might immediately withdraw his troops from the coalition and run a guerilla campaign for the rest of the Parliament (though that could work to Cameron's advantage)

I wonder if having Lynton Crosby on board helps or hinders: obviously he has tremendous credentials as regards winning conventional elections, and is (I assume) much trusted

but that may mean he is a conventional thinker, too - focussed and highly competent - and may (this is a pure guess) be temperamentally averse to having the goalposts creatively moved

hey, I am the world's best cricket coach - don't tell me we are going to play a version of baseball with some new rules of your own devising!

Blue Eyes said...

The other EU leaders need to tell the UK immediatement what treaty changes they will be willing to accept. I was supportive of Cameron's schedule until the EP foisted Juncker on us. Cameron played a poor hand so we ought to assume he will play a poor hand in the 2015-7 negotiations. In which case why wait until 2017 to leave?

Nigel made me into a moderate, Junckergate has returned me to the Outs.

By the way, this new way of choosing the President was agreed by Calamity Brown. Why is nobody pointing that out?

Bill Quango MP said...

Peter Whale - That's what Dave will be counting on!

Radders - Yep!

CU/BE - amendment taken on board. Though its not really about the membership, but the election. So promising referendum after the election secures the votes before.

Andrew- Need time for the great kipper negotiations. - And isn't there some other vote happening over your way in September?
But we can use the data from that dry run exit to fie tune the UK-EU one.

One clause to be built into the referendum EU is in the event of a Scottish exit {A Scotched-it?}Scotland will not be part of the UK Referendum vote.

Blue Eyes said...

The Scots bit is easy to work out. Scotland and Wales and NI get the EU membership, England gets NATO and WTO and the Security Council.


What's next?

Bill Quango MP said...

ND - Well, we'll leave the announcement of referendum quite late. announce around Xmas time. November the 20th ?
Then the Lemon-alliance has a problem. If they flounce off its a winter election, and that's bad for everyone.

Plus, I would favour offering Clegg the leadership of the party of 'In'. With plenty of government help too. cash and civil servants.

2 reasons for that.

That way the pro-Eu lobby is where it belongs, with the Liberals. Who will probably suffer even more for it. OK, falling dem voters will mean rising Labour ones, but seeing as a Lib-Lab is on the cards anyway damage to either must be welcomed.

And secondly,.. Clegg is a liability. Farage would love to go up against Clegg again. [unwisely in my opinion. Clegg is like Spain. Don't expect to see them play that badly again}

As for handing Farage power, well, as I'm sure you've noticed, what's actually being offered is a bribe. Bring your people to me and I'll guarantee you a seat in parliament AND a cabinet post AND I will support your main ambition, EU exit.

It will be too much for Nigel to resist. Dave will have put him into the fast-track-pre-paid boarding queue with the gold card and the free lounge and tea-coffee. he won't be able to resist.

Bill Quango MP said...

BE - me too. I would rather stay in. But I feel I have battered wife syndrome. I'm all Julia Roberts.. ..Europe didn't mean to punch me in the stomach. It was an accident..It was UK's own fault for not agreeing to EU regulation 2657/8/kj.B

" Instructions for the correct arrangement, position and label facing of tinned consumer goods within a kitchen cupboard.."

Blue Eyes said...

Is this our Boston Tea Party moment? Juncker George III, the unrepresentative EU institutions the foolish parliament that failed to stand up for self-determination, and the population deeply divided but finally fed up that rulers overseas don't get it?

Bill Quango MP said...

I think that's a brilliant analogy. That should be one of the TV adverts. And that slogan. "No taxation without representation.. Or at least some sort of migration cap!"

And an advert with the citizens of Portsmouth throwing something into the water.. Farage would probably like immigrants... I think EU straight bananas might get the message across..

. Hmmm... Powerful stuff

Clive said...

On the other hand, it could end up like a Conservative version of the Denis Healey / Tony Benn struggle for who governs (not the country, unfortunately, but the party). I a fair number of people's eyes -- but not I'd hazard a guess the majority of the readers of this blogs' -- UKIP is akin to The Militant tendency, looney extremism that is never going to wash with anything other a handful of individuals who are commendably motivated politically and a nice change from apathy but in the end an irrelevant footnote in history because what they want is simply never going to happen, however ardently they want it.

You could end up with a Conservative "SDP split". That would be a disaster which would keep them out of office for a generation.

Of course, it could all work out just like you say Bill Q.

Do we seriously think, though, that Cameron is that sort of "all or nothing gamble" kind of chap ? I think we all know the answer to that question...

Blue Eyes said...

Has anyone here read The 51st State? It's a novel about a pro-EU Tory PM who during a referendum campaign on the next EU treaty does a volte face and takes the UK out instead of further in. The UK shatters and its constituent nations end up as new US states.

Y Ddraig Goch said...

But I feel I have battered wife syndrome. I'm all Julia Roberts

As I recall, the Julia Robert's character devised a complicated plan to escape from her abusive husband that required courage and no little skill - which she executed flawlessly. When he eventually caught up with her anyway - she killed him.

Interesting analogy.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

If Cameron asks the question "who governs?" I expect he will find, just like Ted Heath, that the answer is "not you, chum."

His present posturing is utterly pathetic. He has made zero attempt to change Europe and this whole farrago over Juncker is PR bollocks.

hovis said...

Not sure the UKIP voters will return that easily, the corsets are off and all manner of wobbles are now out in the open. To mix my clothing metaphors, why return to straightjacketed party system that is obviously disfunctional?

hovis said...

dysfunctional even ... preview be damned

Bill Quango MP said...

Clive: Immigration is number one topic on the yougov poll today. That's the first time the economy has not been the number one concern of UK voters. Its not possible to ignore UKIP anymore. OK, they may be a flash in the pan, but at the moment its a very bright flash. And many many many more people, I'm sure, would like to have a vote on Europe and specifically immigration. without wanting to vote UKIP.
Offering them the chance to do that might see a bigger shift to Dave than you think.

And that Conservative-SDP style split is coming anyway. All it takes is a lost election. Dave is gone and the Dark side of the party fight over the corpse tea party style. Better to manage it now than allow the civil war to break out later.

BE - Nope, not seen that 51st state. There was some talk in the 1950s of Britain having a sort of EEC arrangement with the USA. I think the monarchy was the problem back then. What to do with them?

Y Ddraig Goch
Yes. We could try that.
But I doubt that the Eu will come looking for us if we leave. For many members the UK's wealth isn't worth our stroppiness and disharmony.

Bill Quango MP said...

Seb_W: We Did tell DC a while ago that it wasn't going to work. The whole 'renegotiation' was only ever a ploy to try and silence his kippers and the actual kippers. As it didn't work, he should have abandoned it for something tougher long ago. Ah well..

Hovis: not so sure. think about it. Cameron would be offering to take Farage into government. To guarantee a UK referendum on { and crucially the wording should be agreed before any announcement is made} the UK's membership of the EU.
UKIP would have Farage in charge of the official 'exit now' wing of the government, with freedom of action and funding.

What more could a UKIP supporter, committed to a UK referendum, possibly want? They may not trust Cameron, so that's why Farage is there.

Blue Eyes said...

SW I don't think many expected Cameron to have already reformed the EU by now. However, I am now moving towards the corner marked "it cannot be reformed" and this Juncker business is good evidence of that.

Probably if the UK goes then some more inclusive more diverse coalition of nations will emerge, with some countries much more integrated than others.

Re party politics, there is a coming shift of blocs with a more classical liberal grouping set against a Whitehall knows best grouping. All three main parties have significant groups of both types in their ranks. The LDs will split first then liberal Tories will link up with the liberal bit, and the Heathite/Macmillanite faction will join the remaining social democrats from Labour and LDs.

Or something.

DJK said...

I thought there were sufficiently loud whispers from the others that they were happy to let the UK have country member status. Is in/out the only choice?

As good as the BQ plan is, I really can't see Cameron summoning the energy do do other than throw out some vague promises, then drift along hoping for the best. Surely the 'consequences' of this slapdown will be so trifling as to be an embarrassment?

john miller said...

We no longer have politicians of the calibre necessary to carry out your plan.

Even reading it would put cameron into a cold sweat and I can see Osborne's sneer already.

No, this posing is a load of bollocks, Cameron has no intention of securing a new deal, this is all about recovering some of the disaffected UKIPers at the GE.

And as for Junkers being the wrong choice, do we seriously believe any of the candidates would be milder federists?

The only way this resembles a tea party moment is the storm in the cup. Much ado about nothing.

andrew said...

Having laid by a pool and idly drunk 2 efes I had 5 mins to think:

One way out is to control the ground - or hte question

If before the next election (nov-jan) he actually holds a referendum with 3 choices
(a) Pro Exit
(b) Exit unless he gets M within N years
(c) Pro Europe

Lab and Lib dems must support (c)
UKIP must support (a)

- structure M to reflect the centre ground and loosely worded
- Make N about 5

Everyone else is forced into an 'extreme' position. He wins.

Lets face it we'll get something but not much, but by then it wont be cameron anymore and if its osborne/gove/may im voting for ...
- almost anyone other than balls/milliband

Just not farage. Great on HIGNFY, but I wouldnt want him on the local planning comittee.

Anonymous said...

Junkers 88 proof it is.

UKIP supporters are on the pitch..they think its all over...

it is now!

Anonymous said...

Clive said: "UKIP is akin to The Militant tendency, looney extremism that is never going to wash with anything other a handful of individuals who are commendably motivated politically and a nice change from apathy but in the end an irrelevant footnote in history because what they want is simply never going to happen, however ardently they want it."

Please. Stop it. The insults for those of us who vote UKIP. Have you not learned that we are that sick of abuse that the more we are subject to it the more we want to upset the political cartel ?

We are not about fixing a country which can no longer be fixed but revenge.

I have voted over and over for a party which has moved away from me because I was told that I must keep/get Labour out only for the Tories to do worse to me.

I feel like the long suffering battered wife that BQ so brilliantly describes.

No UKIP voter believes that Farage can ever form a government. We are now in the realms of anti politics. Creative destruction - perhaps just... destruction.

If we can't have our country then we'll be fucked if any one else can have it.

And perhaps a collapse of the British economy is the only thing which will stop relentless mass immigration.

Whatever you do don't blame us. It is those who think that they can pack our country to the rafters without consequence who are the loons.

The Green Party can get an MP but UKIP can't ? What sort of political system is this ?

"Whatever they want is simply never going to happen"

OK. Stuff it then. Not much to lose and no need to renew vows with an abusive husband.

We'll pull the plug on your system instead. And for one day at least we enjoy ourselves - and don't warn us that we'd be foolish because we're going down the shitter anyway. (Wanker Cameron has brought us record levels of population growth.)

Anonymous said...

Anon - "Ukip would shrivel without the internet..."

Which puts paid to Chukkas claim that Ukipers can't use the web.

But let's pretend the world isn't as it is to consider why Ukip might not do well. A concerted media/political opposition perhaps ?

That Ukip can't get an MP and the Green Party can is a travesty.

That a party with fewer votes than Ukip can form government and you say Ukip can't (and be right) is a travesty.

That you say Nigel Farage would write his own version of Mein Kampf makes me infer that either dishonest or brainwashed.

Blue Eyes said...

You do realise that the UK parliament was not elected in May, don't you?

Kilgore Trout said...

There are only two honest positions vis a vis EU membership. There is in, which the overwhelming majority of parliamentary Tories, Labour and Liberal Democrats support, and there is out. There is no serious compromise position. Continental European leaders and the EU institutions are absolutely devoted to ever closer union. That is what the EU is all about. The happy fact is that the United Kingdom has no need to belong to an economically sclerotic, anti-democratic, protectionist customs union in order to enjoy global power and trade. A Tory Party that understood and could properly articulate this position would win the election with a landslide and bury Labour and the Libs for a best part of a generation... and if Hezza and Clarke do not like it, please, please, please do f*ck off and join another party. O