Monday 15 September 2014

Sweden shows the path for UKIP

In a vision of the future, the election in Sweden over the weekend will I think presage exactly the same result that we are likely to have in the UK (assuming for a second a Scottish no vote). The left-wing Social Democrats have the most seats, beating out the right of centre Government, but not by too much.

They are well short of a majority and must now look to various minor parties to for a minority Government. The only major party that is in a position to suppor them is a 'right wing' anti-immigration party - the Sweden Democrats. A brief googling will show the remarkable similarities to UKIP of the Sweden Democrats. Hard to picture them as extreme right wing, more like just anti-immigration which has caused huge social change in Sweden and led partially to the ending of their Welfare economy too.

The Social Democrats are Labour. They did not increase their share of the vote by much, but the right wing lost 7% to Sweden Democrats, read UKIP.

So despite a poor campaign and poor offer the left wing centre party is really still at a historic low and will struggle to form a meaningful Government.

Strikingly this is exactly where the UK will be next year. With polling in the low 30%'s Ed Milliband will form either a slim majority or just fall short. With the Liberals halved in size the natural partner would be UKIP, who he won't touch. So the smashed Liberal Democrats may get to go into Government, but surely to bed hop will just finish the party?

Anyhow, it is a very accurate predictor of the UK political scene to come and must make for a further headache for David Cameron.


BE said...

Grand coalition? Could be the Future UK government too. As in Future UK the electorate, we will join up and rule in their best interests*.

* what we deem to be their best interests

DtP said...

Agreed - however, i'm more optimistic that the Scots will vote 'Ayy'.

It seems strange that both the Spectator and the BBC are calling them a 'far right party' which obviously has negative connotations when, really, they're just fed up with never having been consulted as to one of the greatest exodusses in human history. I really hope the Scots vote Yes - if just for their own sake.


hovis said...

"assuming for a second a Scottish no vote"

If it goes to the No's this week, Labour will likely get massacred in Scotland come May imho.

Jer said...

"headache for David Cameron"

Which he wouldn't have, were he not such an arse.

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