Monday 29 September 2014

UKIP won't cost the Tories an election they want to lose anyway

Boris Johnson and the rest of the Tory front bench are clearly very angry at uppity UKIP ruining their conference by stealing their pesky MP's.

From the tone of the Tories, they did not seem to like these Carswell and Reckless people anyway.

However, it is the Tories who are right to be angry, after 4 years of Government, they have never been ahead in the polls since 'austerity' started - and they won't be until they leave Government in May 2015.

Why is this?

Well there are some interesting points that the Tory party seems to have missed:

1) The Boundaries of the current parliament are hugely in favour of Labour, by as much as 3% of the vote. The Tories had a chance to change this, but were beaten politically by the Liberal Democrats over AV and Lords reform.
2) This is not a minor issue, the Lords really does need reform. Alot of the Scottish referendum debate was around how Westminster is a closed shop and not very democratic. The Lords is key here, a reformed Lords could be the Federal key to governing the UK. The Tories walked away from all this, saying it is inconsequential.
3) There are not votes for Tories in 'Austerity' light. When the Euro Crisis came along the Tories copied Ed Balls plan. So they have the image of austerity to harm them, but no fruits to offer in terms of the Country's finance now being more sound - anyone who looks in detail can see any small accident and our rickety public finances will be finished.
4) The Tories promised huge cuts in immigration - immigration has expanded overall under the Tories. There is more than ever, over 250,000 net new people last year. No wonder we have a housing crisis.
5) We have been offered Scottish Referendums, referendums on AV - everything but the EU - the monster which forces Immigration and other issues to be so painful. Whilst the establishment might win a referendum, a refusal to offer a real one for years is a useless political fix which Cameron is now paying for.

Finally, and most importantly, is the betrayal of Thacther's legacy to blue collar workers. Low taxes, the ability to buy a home, the ability to get on in life. All of these things were strangled by the workfare of Labour and the high taxes this imposed on those of limited means. It has meant that under about £40,000 a year of income there is little real difference in living standards for many people. - it is a socialist utopia. The Tories have done very little to change this, fiddling at the edges. It is not surprising so me that traditional Tory areas like Kent and Essex, full of aspiring and hard working blue collar workers, are the first to give up - seeing that Tories are little different to Labour in offering a statist solution on incomes.

Ed Milliband offers this same solution, you may as well vote for the real deal; which is why he will be Prime Minister next year.


Jer said...

Heartfelt - and I agree entirely.

Cameron's lack of political nouse is quite amazing. It seems that Cameron's pitch to the voters will be "at least I'm not Ed Miliband" and Milibands will be "at least I'm not Cameron".

Both attractive arguments, but one feels something is missing...

Nick Drew said...

Hmm, I am forced to disagree with CU (2nd time in a week !) - I see no reason why the Kinnock effect shouldn't dish Mili, who like most 'theoretical' people is very easily disoriented by inconvenient and unexpected developments

(of which I am sure Lynton Crosby has a whole bagful)

also, a question - is there not a scenario where Scottish Labour is wiped out and Salmond (sorry, Sturgeon) holds the balance of power?

andrew said...

Despite all objective evidence, I think the cons will win (even if they don't really want to).

Just as the undecided Sottish largely voted no, and were a little embarrassed about it,

I think a lot of people will see Mr Milliband in the tv debates and will quietly think 'just no'. No comment of the rightness or wrongness of his policies, just him.

On his policies,

When he forgot the deficit - twice, he could have stood up and said 'look, interest rates around the world are negative in real terms and are going to be for at least the next 5-10 years - this means the world wants to give us money for less than nothing and I will use this money to rebuild Britain for the 21st century'

And we could have had a proper debate over what sort of britain we want.

Instead he comes across as the younger cousin of Blair with special needs.

It isn't just the tories who have failed.

Budgie said...

Cameron and Miliband were invented to make Nick Clegg look good.

AndrewZ said...

It's entirely possible that Milliband will be undone by the "Kinnock effect" - Labour will go into the election with all the polls in their favour, but when it actually comes to voting many people may realise that they just can't see him as a credible Prime Minister.

john miller said...

In the race to oblivion, Cameron will lag minutely behind Mili.

He will then form a coalition with Clegg (3 MPs), Farage (3 MPs) and my Granny-she's sent a photo of her on Brighton beach 70 years ago to a Shadow Cabinet minister and we await developments-(1 MP).

DtP said...

Whilst the Kinnock effect is certainly important - the more I hear & see Miliband the more I see him as a total twat; Cameron also has the same problem - not so much people not voting for him but people just not voting at all.

hovis said...

Agree with DtP, the Kinnock effect is at work for both parties. The fact they have a majority but no real mandate - they will claim to have one, but this coalescence of FPTP and grave disatisfaction with all 'mainstream" parties (a misnomer when looking at their actual memberships) will cause unrest.

BE said...

I have to respectfully disagree with some of this.

I totally understand why people from many different starting points have found this administration to be very frustrating. I am certainly irritated by the lack of deficit reduction, and the lack of progress on decentralisation and political reforms like recall. I think you are right that the coalition was stupid to get itself elected on a "cuts" agenda, use up its political capital and then not actually deliver any more deficit reduction that Darling promised.

But what is to be gained by kicking out a party which didn't quite live up to hopes, in order to land yourself with one which you will definitely hate more?

I really don't get why EU-headbangers go on about Cameron reneging on an EU referendum. He absolutely did NOT promise a referendum in the 2010 manifesto. Even if he had, he DID NOT WIN A MAJORITY! It's no use moaning "we waz promised" when, if you accept the electoral system, the rest of the country pretty much disagreed. I hate this UKIP premise that every voter ought to get the government he or she wants. That is not how it works! This isn't washing powder.

The Conservatives have been a bit rubbish. Some of that is the fault of being in coalition with a bunch of shysters, some of that is them being a bit rubbish themselves. Osborne has even said publicly that in retrospect he could have gone further.

Maybe in retrospect the Tories should have accepted AV in return for boundaries. It isn't PR, and it would have given people the opportunity to vote UKIP then Tory as second choice. But it didn't happen. It's absolutely no use shouting "aargh" and electing Miliband. Aaargh isn't a policy platform. Aaargh doesn't push the government towards the policies you want. Aargh gets you the exact opposite of what you want.

On the Telegraph blogs, for example, you see loads of cyberkippers saying that Cameron isn't a Thatcher, so the best thing to do is not vote for him. But Thatcher wasn't a Thatcher in 1983. We are at 1983 not 1987. The economy hasn't fully come back yet, lots of people are still hurting, yet there's no Falklands (thank goodness) and Ed's donkey jacket isn't quite as short.

Voting isn't a way of telling politicians what you think, it's a straightforward choice of who you put in Parliament. We have a very clunky electoral system, so voters have to choose carefully. Don't like it: tough, there's no time to change it before May.

So while righties cheering on the horrible Farage might feel good, in the way that kicking a chair might do the same, it doesn't actually further right-of-centre aims.

Voting UKIP won't lead to a Con-UKIP coalition in the way it might in the Netherlands or Denmakr, it will lead straight to the hapless Miliband having control of our borders, police, armed services, tax policy and interest rates.

Really? Really, really?

Anonymous said...

1. AV: The LibDem's wanted it badly but it would have given UKIP too much of an in, so it was nobbled.

2. Lords Reform: Again another LD policy that was nobbled so the troughers that were caught red-handed or those with a predelicatiomn to send pics of themselves, could be ennobled

3. The Deficit: Sensible not to cut too far and too fast but GO gave up halfway through after seeing the UKIP threat.

4. Immigration : Lots of highly paid and ultimately large taxpayers in that group. Housing "crisis" is just a means to pump up the market and remove the dodgy loans / negative equity from the system.

5. EU: Why give up on a club that is an integral part of your economy. If we wanted to leave the EU we'd be out selling like mad to the BRIC's and changing the nature of our economy. Once the balance was changed, there would be no need for the EU. Until that time, why shoot yourselves in the foot.

6. Thatcher: Dead like her policies.

MyAnnoyedName said...

For those of us on under £40k a year there is no option but vote UKIP.

Social welfare types earn as much as we do and get a free house into the bargain. Not a state supplied house, mind, one bought by over leveraged BTL brigade with dodgy loans and removed from the private market. Now 'we' cant get mortgages due to increased regulation and even if we could we couldnt afford the average house on x3.5 wages. So 'we' are dumped in private rented sector with no protection and can be forced to move with family with only 3 months notice.
Meanwhile, overleveraged, underwater 'accidental' landlords who are in arrears on interest only mortgages gouge rent prices higher and higher, safe in the knowledge that the banks will never repossess them, rates will be low for decades and they'll never have to pay their mortgage anyway... only the interest.
And the under 40s (in wage and age) get fucked for their whole lives.

In the same vein these people see a bunch of airheaded arseholes with university educations explain why their kids wont get free education. Fuck em.

Trying to do the best for your kids when you cant afford a home and foreigners are flooding in with similar skillsets driving down wages is the issue. These guys arent trained insured or regulated, work cash in hand in an area for a few months and then leave. Society is fracturing because families cannot get a foothold in work, rest or play.
These are Europeans that dont follow the EU regulations that we have to follow.

Meanwhile, the news is full of Tory MPs waving their dicks at kids or some airhead with a sad story about how she was 'betrayed' by someone selling pictures of her with her cunt in the air.
Dont worry about it though, shes 'grown stronger' and 'learned her lesson' and if you buy her new album it'll help her to heal.

Prime time television is little more than cavalcade of fuckwits, caterwauling and jigging in some grotesque carnival of unabashed fucking idiocy. Political debate is a punch and Judy satire where all three characters are run by the puppet master. They all want the same thing but must appear to be different. Bail out failed private institutions with public money and let the infrastructure collapse.

None of them address the substantive issues of the day;
- why have the debts of Banks been nailed to the public?
- why have files about paedo politicians disappeared?
- why is the policy of Adminis-flation being applied (with QE) to boost asset prices and save banks when 6 years on, its still not working. Who is getting rich of this?

I'm fucking sick of it all and I'll be voting UKIP - not because I like or want them but - because it will speed up the decline and crash that the cunts in power (career civil service/media) so richly deserve.

717 said...

@MyAnnoyedName - good work, Sir. May I recommend Mr Ishmael's blog - your rant & invective has a second home :-)

dearieme said...

Was it Harry Truman who said "If you run a Republican against a Republican, the Republican will always win"?

BE said...

"I'm fucking sick of it all and I'll be voting UKIP - not because I like or want them"

And there you have it. The Aaargh Party.

Vote negative, vote often. Shoot yourself and the rest of us in the foot, why don't you?

Or did you think that sorting out Labour's mess (and the UK's general post-war socialism mess) would take more than about five minutes?

Oops, how naive. Presumably it never occurs to the under £40k brigade to up their game? If Johnny Foreigner can come over 'ere and steal your job while charging less for it, don't you ever wonder whether you might not have been doing a very valuable job in the first place?

Of course UKIPers ignore the welfare reforms that the Tories have done in the face of Lib/Lab opposition. They ignore that the tuition fee reform deals with exactly the nonsense courses that UKIPers always moan about. They ignore the fact that we don't just compete with France and Germany any more.

Just be angry at the world. That'll make you feel better.

BE said...

PS do even the made cyberweirdos think that voting UKIP will improve the offering on your telly?

I mean I realise you were having a general rant, but FFS.

DtP said...

@BE - I can't really disagree with anything you've said. I used to do quite senior Tory stuff until a few months after the last General and realised that I missed my life and working flat out for 3 years had done considerable damage and since then i've been helping out a chum to get UKIP off the ground. On Wednesday last week I had to make the decision as to whether to stand for them or not and just couldn't bring myself to do it as it's totally obvious, in the main, that they're a bunch of total jokers in a private interest group.

I think, if anything, they've been hampered by their own success - they were never meant to be a political party just a campaigning referendum group but for factors that we can all list their polling stats have gone through the roof. What could equally be levelled at UKIP could equally be thrown at the Libs or the SNP. Everyone's got to start somewhere and all that.

What i've learnt through my soon to be ended political career is that the voters vote for myriad reasons - no-one's right, no-one's wrong - the main thing is they vote. Oftentimes i've made up stuff about other parties just to push apathy - better that they don't vote at all than vote for the opposition.

It's all well and good us anoraks coming to this fine parish and stating the obvious but a cursory look at both the Mail or the Guardian comments section is enough to scare the begeezus out of most normal people.

I don't like Cameron or Osborne and think they're both lazy spivs who have been lucky on a macro level and just bloody insane on a political front. Whilst sober heads may prevail come May, I think it's a perfectly legitimate for people to vote however they want - vote drunk, vote comedically, vote with a blindfold on and wearing a dress - none of my business. There is no loyalty, there is no sentiment and these days, hell, if people vote at all it's kind of a surprise. It's perfectly fine for people to vote aaarrrgggghhhh - if that's what they feel, ain't nothing wrong with that. Why do people support Macclesfield Town football club?

andrew said...

Why do people support Macclesfield Town football club?

I for one, would be interested to know
(having supported Leyton Orient, Watford, Crystal Palace depending on where I lived)

MySecondName said...

@717 - I dont know what that is, so I cant comment. Funny or cutting, I do not know!

@BE - " If Johnny Foreigner can come over 'ere and steal your job while charging less for it, don't you ever wonder whether you might not have been doing a very valuable job in the first place?"
I'll make sure and tell that to all my plumber/sparky/sundry tradesmen/ Northern friends. Should I tell them its official Tory policy or just a despondent flack from Central Office?

The Tories have failed. End of.

The point - for Tory/Lab mouthpieces and regular readers - is that this 'decline' is cultural as well as social and economic. You will never repair a country where the ideal is set as being a footballer or glamour model/pop star because its as realistic as owning your a house in your own country. In fact, its more realistic because the govt arent actively legislating against you being a pop star/footballer.

You cannot seriously believe that voting Tory will change anything, I mean they're following Labours 'recovery' plan. wtf would I vote for them?
On any day of the week the limp-dickery of the Tories is there to be seen;
Lloyds fires 8 for Libor rigging - no prosecutions.
Mortgage approvals falling - but foreigners allowed to invest tax free in UK property.

Theres no desperation here, I wish there were - that implies hope!
Unfortunately, the Westminster crowd have royally fucked this country for anyone under 45 and refuse to implement change because it would mean them losing out.

BE said...

Look, it's obvious. If you can't hold down a job against some Latvian new arrival who can barely speak the language, doesn't have any network or local experience or referees, then what exactly am I supposed to think?

Yesterday on the Tgraph comments I was called a "shill" because I pointed out that UKIP wanted a tax on handbags. If that's all you have left "blah blah Tory mouthpiece blah blah" then perhaps you have lost the point.

I do think Britain has a future. I am looking forward to it. I am outward-looking, an economic liberal, social liberal, and love this country. I am fed up to the back teeth with tossers on comment forums saying because I don't want to pull the drawbridge up and eat turnips for the rest of my life I am a shill or a quisling or a mouthpiece.

As for whatever cultural decline whatever that is, this country has lots of the best things in the world to offer. Even the shittier bits of the North and Wales are only a short hop to the good bits so instead of telling me I am awful for not hating my country why don't you go and do something. Fuck you and your end-of-Britain bullshit.

I am nothing to do with the Tories, but this bilious bullshit from people who want to grind this country down make me think as though I ought to rejoin and go out leafletting.

Don't bother replying, I won't read it. I have my life to get on with.

Budgie said...

So BE you are dissatisfied with the Tories but you are still going to vote for them? In other words you are voting out of fear, not conviction.

andrew said...

I have the feeling that BE is intending to vote tory in the same true small c conservative tradition as me :-

because everyone else is even worse.

Things are bad enough already without people changing things.

CityUnslicker said...

BE - I like your style - you suit being angry.

I will do a future post about just how much Milliband will be like Cameron, only funnier because he does not even have the smooth PR style. I doubt Labour are going to wreck the economy because its still knackered from last time. This government has done very little at all, especially the last two years whcih should in some ways be a reason to applaud.

But it does make UKIP a better vote, they are mad and crazy but they are also for change at the core which Labour and Tories are not.

And change is coming to the UK, immigration, globalisation, islamification, debt contagion - the future is there and it is very different to the past.

Small c conservatism just won't make the grade and neither of course will small minded leftist redistribution.

Please ntoe all, I live in the safest Tory seat in Kent, so in reality my UKIP vote will never make the slightest bit of difference anyway!

Nick Drew said...

I guess everyone has a different breaking point: but throwing all the pieces up in the air in the hope they will somehow fall down better is a pretty extreme gamble

(the Trots tried that with Labour in 1983 and I don't think they were gratified by the result: and that's just the UK - there have been far worse outcomes in other countries. Out of chaos comes ... who knows what? If you think it can't be any worse, both your imagination and your sense of history are wanting)

for myself, as in 2010, I reckon we (if I may say 'we') are very far from wanting to throw an election

take power, take the initiative

Budgie said...

ND, are you seriously comparing UKIP to what the CPGB, SWP and MT would have done to this country?

DtP said...

@BE - sorry to be a twat but "If you can't hold down a job against some Latvian new arrival who can barely speak the language, doesn't have any network or local experience or referees, then what exactly am I supposed to think?" - Probably, wtf is going on?

The Latvians have money now, as do the Poles, the Kurds, Albanian terrorists and the Miks!! I live in Yorkshire and you can join the dots to their networks - apparently Wales and the North West is worse. The Latvians are employing Latvians - they don't give a fuck about his GCSEs.

There's nothing wrong with being a reluctant Tory - sure, it's boring but it's work and some fucker has to do it but the insane thing about the leadership at the mo is that they miss so much stuff. It's an ugly baby contest and i'll defo vote for them too but i'll not be dancing.

Timbo614 said...

@BE I'm going to join DtP here. All the following is supposition/speculation:
MyAnyName is at a disadvantage. He is trying (probably) to live the life that us "British" have aspired to over many years/traditionally. All he wants (basically) is to have somewhere to live probably, preferably, a home he actually will own one day, his "castle". He wants to support his wife/partner(gets murky here) and probably some children. A car would be nice but probably like me (from tradesman references) He drives a van.

He has in a word OVERHEADS, commitments, all sold and promoted to him by successive governments and not too few adverts. He has "Done the right thing"(or is trying to). He earns after working hard 39K probably gets few cash jobs but not many or Mr HMRCBastardsByAnyOtherName jumps on him for unrealistic earnings figures. Every move he makes is taxed/fined/charged for. Basically everything he does costs him in the name of "fairness"

Now take Mr.JustArrivedImmigrantName:

He lives in a caravan with 8 other Mr JustArrivedImmigrantsWithNames. He claims all the social allowances which we just learned must be sent back to his family in JustDepartedFromCountryInTheEuName, even if he never gets a job. So 4 of them do that.
The other 4 can charge/invoice what the hell they like the result being that Mr MyAnyName is basically fucked(Oopps).

And you wonder why he really wants to Vote for Mr. Farage who is saying he will level the playing field. But is also scared shitless by the prospect that he has to go to those lengths.

AND being a reasonable allowance making tolerant brit, he does NOT begrudge anyone trying to make their way in life and even flourishing. It is simply the current unbalanced system that is creating a lot of injustice and he has had enough of it.

AndrewZ said...

CityUnslicker - "I doubt Labour are going to wreck the economy"

If Miliband became Prime Minister he would have the unions and the left constantly demanding higher taxes and more spending. The union bosses would also be demanding the repeal of any legislation that limits their power in any way whatsoever. All the identity politics groups in the Labour party and the wider left would be screaming for their own special laws and subsidies.

Miliband has been consistently weak and indecisive as a party leader. Do you imagine that in government he would be able to resist the clamour from all the extremist factions in his party for every long? He'd start making concessions to get them off his back and then find that he couldn't stop.

A Miliband government could easily end up like one of those loony left councils from the 1980s. Vote Miliband, get Hatton.

Nick Drew said...

Budgie, wrong analogy

the trots and fellow-travellers within the Labour Party thought that by driving Labour unelectable they would force a re-alignment of the left

the point is simply that by trying destructive tactics to force a 're-set' on your own side, you may just find your own side is condemned to irrelevance for quite a while

(see Life of Brian passim)

MyLateNightName said...

@718 - I geddit now. Genius. :D

@Timbo614 - You have hit the nail on the head; If I could kiss you I would.

I'm not a physical worker, but i come from a long line of them and I'm not ashamed of it. I find my life restricted/reduced by the actions of others/ inaction of government. It seems the last advantage I have is 'the vote' so I'm going to use it.

I never put a foot wrong, never broke the law, paid (most) of my taxes, I sacrifice a lot of 'GDP' (prostitution, drugs) to keep my marriage alive, I go to sports clubs, occasionally to church, raise money for this and that. I keep fit, dont drop litter, service my car, try to eat my 5-a-day, paint my own house, mow my lawn... and for what?

I'm a fucking mug.

Fuck the Tories, Fuck Labour.
I'm voting UKIP.

And may God forgive me.

CityUnslicker said...

AndrewZ - a swift conversation with the BOE and Treasury mandarins about the true state of the countries finances will stop Milliband in his tracks.

At worst Milliband will be Hollande over the water - France is screwed, but it has been coming for years in any event.

At least it will be funny to watch!

Electro-Kevin said...

BE said "EU-headbangers"

That'll be me then.

You're happy to have imported competition for work ?

A few months back you were complaining you couldn't upsize property - didn't you wonder why ? A clue. It wasn't just the limit on lending multiples - it was the factors which meant you needed such high multiples in the first place.

Very few people are against immigration - we are just against uncontrolled immigration, especially where it is subsidised by welfarism.

I happen to think that we ought to have a referendum on big issues such as this and the jam-tomorrow referendum which has been promised would not have been offered were it not for the existence of UKIP.

The only headbanging I'm doing is against the wall - trying to get that through to you.

There really are more important things than money. Our history is full of people who sacrificed more than we are likely to for this country if we quit the EU.

Cameron has proven himself a liar. I don't want my people changed any more than they have been.

I have a right to say that.

I have a right - not just to abstain - but to reject the main three and indicate to them why I've done it.

That's democracy. Live with it.

It's your position that needs explanation. No amount of commerce will fund the amount of uneducated people coming here (nor make up for the educated people leaving) This demographic trajectory is economically unsustainable.

The average person is going to get piss poor regardless of which party wins.

We may as WELL vote UKIP. At least it will feel good on the day and there may not be another chance to stick it to 'em.

I certainly don't want to miss that opportunity.

Electro-Kevin said...

PS - Labour in government.

The bigger the swing the other way will be. Good.

Any party that puts John Redwood on the back benches is NOT Tory.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

It really doesn't matter who you all vote for at the next general election. Aside from the fact Tory and Labour are both useless Social Democrat parties in thrall to Common Purpose greenshirts, the actual government is in Brussels, and you can't vote them out. So we might as well have fun and vote UKIP.

Budgie said...

Nick Drew said: "Budgie, wrong analogy".

I didn't make an analogy, I asked a straightforward question. It was based on your own analogy: "the Trots tried that with Labour in 1983" which you were comparing with UKIP/intentions to vote UKIP.

ND said: "the trots and fellow-travellers within the Labour Party".

Yes, that's what I said - MT was known to be within Labour. But there were plenty of others (Trotskyists, Maoists, Leninists, Stalinists) who were in more than one party (entryism), the SWP and CPGB being typical, as I mentioned.

Too many Conservatives seem to think UKIP is merely the awkward wing of the Tories and that the Tories "own" UKIP's voters. This is delusional. UKIP is more nearly a liberal party, hence its appeal to the non-conservative section of Labour voters.

Timbo614 said...

Taking a straw poll from these comments leads one to believe it will be a lively election possibly creating interesting times!

Nick Drew said...

Budgie - to the extent 'kippers have any ideology at all, I am sure some of them are 'more liberal' than the Conservative Party (official wing); and I am equally sure that some of them are quite the opposite ... wouldn't you say?

it is a party of protest with no need to be intellectually coherent, and inevitably gathers a 'very broad' range of discontented folk - all of whom can imagine it represents them best

my purpose in raising the trots & labour 1983 was simply to highlight a danger for anyone (no accusation of them having trot-like characteristics ...) betting on a good outcome from trying to bring down the pillars of the temple

frequently (in these comments and elsewhere) I read something along these lines:

I'm voting UKIP, they obviously won't win, it'll probably let Labour in but so what, it all hastens the day of the Finger On The Great Reset Button, and that's what we need

I just think that's a very risky strategy and neither of the likely outcomes (the intended political chaos, or just more years of labour government) are ones i personally endorse right now

Electro-Kevin said...

As Farage says - UKIP is not about the difference between right and left but that between right and wrong.

I really don't like the Tory party anymore. I voted to keep Labour out last time. I vow never to vote negatively again - what have we got ? Debt up. Immigration up, the powers of the EU up.

It's not about risk. It's not about strategy. It's for once voting for something I want.

Vote UKIP get UKIP.

If Labour wins that's David Cameron's fault, not mine.

Y Ddraig Goch said...


RE: 1:48pm above.

I sympathise a lot with the UKIP advocates here - but I can see your point as
well. So let me ask how you suggest we vote based on the following.

It is perfectly obvious that mass immigration has been an unmitigated disaster
for this country. And it is now equally obvious that Cameron's government will
never do anything effective to stop it. This has lots of malign consequences but
let's consider just two.

1. Mass immigration pushes low-paid/low-skill British citizens onto benefits -
because there will always be some immigrants willing to take a lower
salary. Those newly-welfare-dependent British citizens then become locked-in
Labour voters because they daren't do otherwise. Their children grow up never
knowing anything but welfare dependency; and there is no way to break this
cycle because endless, open-door, mass immigration guarantees an endless
supply of immigrants who will always work for less.

2. Mass immigration creates a housing shortage. This pushes up property prices
and makes life hard for young people in particular, who now have to pay high
rents and high property prices - so it's harder for them to save up a
deposit and the deposit they need is larger. So they are naturally inclined to
support high taxes and government subsidies for rent and property
purchase. They may even support the utter lunacy of a land value tax. And who
can blame them?

A lot of people are being screwed over by just these two effects (and there
are plenty more where these came from). Why should any of those people vote

Nick Drew said...

Y Ddraig Goch - the obvous point first: it definitely won't get better with another Lab govt, successor to a regime which actively promoted this dynamic, so that's an outcome to be avoided

2: it's the economy - thriving economies tend to welcome "hardworking" immigrants (though lumpen chain migration is quite something else) - so put the economy at risk and you make matters still worse

3: (and this doesn't much help guide your vote in 2015) - it's not too hard to frame a range of policies to reduce (the wrong kind of) immigration, the problem is pursuading an Actually Electable government to get on with it

4: historical viewpoint (or counsel of despair, if you will) - some secular trends keep running until they stop, and railing against them leads only to ulcers or a rather empty martyrdom, metaphorical or literal (imagine you were an Anglo-Saxon in 1070, or a Luddite in 1790 ... these are not meant as insults)

5: personal conclusion - join Party (I think you know which one), plug away from inside, stay resolutely realistic, keep ulcers at bay with 4.

Just 180 words on the biggest topic of the age, so hardly a satisfactory response I know

Electro-Kevin said...

Nick - The economy will be under no greater risk than it already is. Look at the debt.

Unless you're saying that the Tories have ended boom and bust then we must presume that we will endure bust again.

By which time we'll be packed full and culturally fragmented beyond recognition.

A bigger welfare class than we've ever had and civil disorder to boot.

I can't bring myself to vote Tory. I fucking hate them.

Having voted for them all my life I now realise they're no friends of mine and never were.

Budgie said...

ND said: "... betting on a good outcome from trying to bring down the pillars of the temple."

Gordon Bennett, what have you been smoking? Who is going to bring down the temple pillars? UKIP? You think?

We are run by a combination of Corporatists, Bilderbergers, Common Purposists, but mostly by EU Kommissars, herding us with managerialism and PR. The EU has its extensive power over us because it was given to it by our pillar upholding Conservative, Labour and Liberal-Democrat Parties, despite their having no right and no mandate to do so.

Our Constitution has been wrecked, our ability to hold our government to account democratically (all our government, I mean) has almost disappeared, our young people have been short changed with a semi-education, our country has been deliberately swamped by immigration to kill what was left of our culture, nationalism and even patriotism is routinely sneered at, we are enthralled by political correctness, and you have the brass neck to accuse UKIP of bringing the temple pillars crashing down? Seriously ND, you and your Tory fellow-travellers need to get a grip.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Milliband is no more useless than Cameron, who is only following the Darling/Balls plan to spend more money anyway, despite all propaganda to the contrary(look at the treasury & OBR figures, there is no austerity). Changing to a Labour government will make no substantive difference to the running of this country, but it might perhaps be a useful way to destroy the sub-Heath Etonian traitors running the Tory shithouse and eventually give us an actual free market opposition devoted to sound money and secure borders.

Y Ddraig Goch said...


Thanks for the reply.

"it definitely won't get better with another Lab govt, successor to a regime
which actively promoted this dynamic"

Yes, I do understand that. I definitely do not think that "things can't be any
worse under Labour". They can, and they will be. But part of my point is that
the two issues I described strengthen Labour's electoral position,
relentlessly which makes it doubly important for the Conservatives to
oppose those dynamics - yet they don't. And in fact, my impression is that
Cameron refuses to do so.

"thriving economies tend to welcome "hardworking" immigrants "

We have an official unemployment rate of about 2 million. And
net immigration of around 200,000 per year. An economic upturn will
suck in even more immigrants. There is no plausible economic improvement that
could boost real terms incomes for most British workers in that environment.

"it's not too hard to frame a range of policies to reduce (the wrong kind of)
immigration, the problem is pursuading an Actually Electable government to get
on with it"

OK. That's a fair point. Cameron is stuck with a coalition that is not of his
choosing and that constrains his options. But where are his victories?
Where did the current government wage cultural and demographic war on the left
in the way that Blair and Brown did against the British people with open door
mass immigration and "in-work" benefits? I can't see anything. Which leaves me
with nothing to support.

Voting UKIP (if I do it) is not meant to fix these problems. The trade-off is
more complicated than that. Voting Conservative means endorsing Cameron's
strategy of "going to hell in a handbasket more slowly than Milliband
would". Voting UKIP probably means another few years of Labour
lunacy. However, that gives the great British public yet another chance to
experience Labour's trade mark economic incompetence and also delivers a clear
message to the Conservative hierarchy that a Labour party agenda with slightly
less spending isn't good enough. It's not at all clear to me which of those is

"keep ulcers at bay"

Good point.

CityUnslicker said...

Interstingly, UKIP have the most cohesive long-term vision of any UK political party.

The EU has leadened our dynamic economy that was re-booted around 1983. Now it consumes only its own debt, which is unsustainable. Like most of the EU Countries.

Then mass immigration has taken a terrible social and economic toll on the Country.

UKIP sees this and realises over the long-term thsi must be addressed. Where it is weak is on all the short-term other bits Government has to do. The other parties major on this, bar the SNP which has its own clear goal.

In the long-term, these two parties will win as its just is a matter of superior foresight to see what the real cause and effects are within the Country.

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