Monday, 29 September 2014
UKIP won't cost the Tories an election they want to lose anyway
From the tone of the Tories, they did not seem to like these Carswell and Reckless people anyway.
However, it is the Tories who are right to be angry, after 4 years of Government, they have never been ahead in the polls since 'austerity' started - and they won't be until they leave Government in May 2015.
Why is this?
Well there are some interesting points that the Tory party seems to have missed:
1) The Boundaries of the current parliament are hugely in favour of Labour, by as much as 3% of the vote. The Tories had a chance to change this, but were beaten politically by the Liberal Democrats over AV and Lords reform.
2) This is not a minor issue, the Lords really does need reform. Alot of the Scottish referendum debate was around how Westminster is a closed shop and not very democratic. The Lords is key here, a reformed Lords could be the Federal key to governing the UK. The Tories walked away from all this, saying it is inconsequential.
3) There are not votes for Tories in 'Austerity' light. When the Euro Crisis came along the Tories copied Ed Balls plan. So they have the image of austerity to harm them, but no fruits to offer in terms of the Country's finance now being more sound - anyone who looks in detail can see any small accident and our rickety public finances will be finished.
4) The Tories promised huge cuts in immigration - immigration has expanded overall under the Tories. There is more than ever, over 250,000 net new people last year. No wonder we have a housing crisis.
5) We have been offered Scottish Referendums, referendums on AV - everything but the EU - the monster which forces Immigration and other issues to be so painful. Whilst the establishment might win a referendum, a refusal to offer a real one for years is a useless political fix which Cameron is now paying for.
Finally, and most importantly, is the betrayal of Thacther's legacy to blue collar workers. Low taxes, the ability to buy a home, the ability to get on in life. All of these things were strangled by the workfare of Labour and the high taxes this imposed on those of limited means. It has meant that under about £40,000 a year of income there is little real difference in living standards for many people. - it is a socialist utopia. The Tories have done very little to change this, fiddling at the edges. It is not surprising so me that traditional Tory areas like Kent and Essex, full of aspiring and hard working blue collar workers, are the first to give up - seeing that Tories are little different to Labour in offering a statist solution on incomes.
Ed Milliband offers this same solution, you may as well vote for the real deal; which is why he will be Prime Minister next year.