Thursday, 30 April 2015

Uk election - Hollow legions

Party                           Seats
Conservatives               279
Labour                         270
SNP                              48
Liberal Democrats         27
DUP                               8
Plaid Cymru                    4
SDLP                             3
UKIP                             2
Greens                           1
Other                             8

323 seats are required for a minimum majority

A Conservative coalition looks to be made up of Con {279} + Lib {27} + Ukip {2} +DUP {8}  for a total of

A Labour coalition of Lab {270} + SNP {48} + Plaid {4} + SDLP {3} + Green {1} for a total of 326
A majority, but a very weak one.

Labour could also add the Liberals to its mixed bag, giving a very comfortable
It could also count on Galloway's respect party if it needed an odd one vote sometime.

Unless the Tories can do considerably better than 279 seats, or the liberals hang on to many more of their labour-lib battlegrounds then its highly unlikely a blue coalition could be formed.

So, a labour + Scotland+Wales+N.Ireland socialists arrangement is going to be the government.

Interesting to wonder what would have happened if the Tories had not campaigned for Scotland to remain in the union and the SNP had won its rather disappointing referendum.
Scotland would be voting in this election. But coming out in 2017. leaving the Miliband government with a 30 odd seat minus and generating a new election, which labour would have to win without the SNP or any Labour Scottish seats at all.

All those pundits during the referendum who told us over and over again that Scotland has almost no bearing on any UK laws or election results. How foolish do they feel ?

One thing the Tories could do, though its very unlikely, is to add the SNP to the blue coalition, on a con&sup basis, with the promise of giving them whatever they want. 

Tax raising powers & another referendum.
Cameron could suggest that there be a referendum in 2019, with ALL voters in the UK taking part. So almost guaranteeing a Scottish exit. He could also pledge to fight so Scotland receives automatic EU status on exit.
Then in 2020, with no SNP, he could fight the election knowing Labour would never again have a 59 seat cushion of seats or allied seats to call upon.


James Higham said...

Tory looks at the GE are consistent - it will be interesting to see the final margins and how good this one is as a poll.

Sandalista said...

Minority Tory government is the best bet (add in your favourite coalition partner here)

Can't see Ed M having the skills to put one together - given Brown's efforts last time.

Of course, they could dump Ed and get someone more palatable to a coalition but I'm scratching my head on that one.

Expect more bizarre (and undeliverable) bribes in the next few days. And we are a guilty as the rest.

Nick Drew said...

near-certainty of no overall majority is a licence to bribe freely and without consequence

Steven_L said...

Dream on.

Scots voters hate the tories and labour now really hate the SNP.

On the numbers you suggest a Lab-Lib pact is quite possible, outnumbering the tories.

The SNP would have to commit political suicide - and vote with the tories to bring down a labour government - or lump it.

Blue Eyes said...

I agree with Steven L, as usual. I think that an unstable minority government is likely, with never quite enough support from opposition groupings to bring down the government.

A dishevelled minority government limping on for 2-4 years may well suit the opposition parties.

Suffragent said...

What a truly depressing list. (Now if it was the daily hanging roster I would be a happy man). A list of statists that starts with Stalin and moves gradually left of centre. With the exception of Ukip, a party seen as right wing because it wants to protect the country’s sovereignty and borders?????
For all the above like/left minded individuals, coalition is the ultimate goal. They don’t care who with as all their policies are similar (take as much and give as little as the market will allow). But there has to be a winning coalition and a losing coalition, to give the impression of democracy (which of these your party is in, is strangely decided after you’ve had your chance to vote?)
Coalition means 5 years doing F-all (with exception of setting up your own little thiefdom), on full expenses and no ultimate responsibility “we would have liked to fix the economy but our partners wouldn’t allow it”,

To Yesterdays Post
Looking at that line-up of extortionists, arguing over who’s going to give away the most of your money, I’d say we are all going to be losers. Initially the wealth creators and then the rest, when the whole system comes crashing down.

Tesco’s post
With regards to home deliveries and deliveries to person. Next step google “Roam delivery”

Anonymous said...

The SNP need only vote 'in the national interests' to allow a Labour minority to form and to pass their budget. especially the part that 'exempts Scotland from any tax increases and increases the Barnett Formula to 15%."

SNP supporters would very pleased with deal. And they could rest on their Danegeld, knowing they could topple a labour government on any issue, at any time they like.

DJK said...

"Cameron could suggest ..." He could do any of the things you suggest Bill --- if his aim is only to hang on to personal power for as long as possible and damn the consequences for the country.

I happen to like being British. I realise I'm in a minority here, but like a lot of people, I have strong ties to more than one part of this kingom and I don't want the binary choice of England or Scotland. No other country can match the achievements of Great Britain and I really, really do not want my country destroyed by the small-minded efforts of the SNP, aided by Cameron and Osborne.

FWIW, we had a long debate here in Scotland and a majority of Scottish voters agree.

Bill Quango MP said...

Cameron will NEVER do it. He feels the same way.
As his adviser, I urge him to consider it. He will gift a Tory-soft Tory power government for a generation.
With a much harder left north of the border.

It would be like a controlled experiment.

DJK said...

All I can say is: be careful what you wish for. Making the UK a smaller place will have all sorts of unforseen consequences. Meanwhile, the reason the SNP have such high support is because they are extremely compentent at the business of governing --- compared to, admittedly, the not-so-impressive pols at Westminster.

The great virtue of the SNP is their flexibility. The hard-left rhetoric would be dropped in an instant if they had sole charge and thought that doing so would grow the real economy and increase inward investment.

Jan said...

Nil desperandum (yet) Bill.

PJH said...

"323 seats are required for a minimum majority"

Technically maybe, but in reality:

650 seats.

~5 Sinn Féin members who won't turn up for a vote

One speaker, one Chairman, plus two deputies, of Ways and Means - all of whom, by tradition, neither speak nor vote on any matter before the house.

So that reduces the count of those who (usually) vote to 641.

I make that 320/321 for a workable minimum. Depending on whether, or how many, of said party's MP's are sitting in the middle of the house.

Suffragent said...

DJK Agreed
Britain is a stronger place as a whole, its population has a common history of standing shoulder to shoulder against all-comers. The nationalist parties have done a great job in drumming up support in an “us and them” campaign (and who can blame them). They have worked on the chasm between Westminster and ALL of the rest of the country.

An Englishman, Scotsman and Welshman go into pub. They drink the night away, have a bit of a ruckus with a group at the other end of the bar and stagger off down the street saying “your my bestist friends”
They return the following night to repeat the experience but are met at the bar by a dark figure. “My name is Mr Westminster. It’s been decided, that it’s in every bodies interest, that I take all your money”. He pockets the cash and returns to the carvery with his chums.
Standing penniless at the bar and listening to the laughter and clinking glasses coming from the restaurant, the Scotsman says “ screw this I’m getting myself a lawyer” and hires Shanalang, Numpty n Prick. The Lawyer returns to the bar and says “I’ve a pint for me and a couple for you and next time I’ll try for a couple of drams.”
Upon seeing this the Welshman does the same and hires Plaid Cymru ambulance chasers and receives his couple of pints and a sticking plaster for last night’s injury.
Standing dry mouthed at the bar, the English man says “well I guess it’s my turn”. At which point both the lawyers crack out laughing “Good luck with that, your representation is the guy that took the money and by the way, the money’s all gone and he paid for our drinks with your credit card.”