Friday 1 May 2015

No deal with SNP. Is Miliband in denial ?

Party                           Seats
Conservatives               279
Labour                         270
SNP                              48
Liberal Democrats         27
DUP                               8
Plaid Cymru                    4
SDLP                             3
UKIP                             2
Greens                           1
Other                             8

323 seats are required for a minimum majority

Last night Ed Miliband ruled out ANY deal with the SNP.
Any deal at all . 

If he is serious, and he may even be serious and not just trying to frighten Scots into voting Labour, then that screws up those numbers for Labour.

Labour plus a supply deal with the Liberals gives 297.
+ the far left parties gives 9 + the DUP {but they would have to be bought off..have to be} + 8
Gives some 316. 

Tory with SNP could scupper any  Labour brotherhood of nations government at any time they liked.

It does seem Miliband is just going to dare the SNP to vote him down. 
This has been suggested before by commentators on here. But it seemed a very very bold strategy. 
We know Miliband has a Balls , but not actual balls. I always felt this middle finger to the SNiPs was just a political ruse.

But on reflection, its quite a smart strategy. 

IF Labour can do just a little better than the polls suggest, which is as likely as not, they can be very close to a working majority with Liberal support.

Once Labour are that close , and Miliband says no deal, its now the SNP who have a hard decision. And whichever they choose only makes Labour stronger. They back him, or abstain, but know that they have gained nothing from him. Or they vote him down and trigger a new election.Something the SNP, with the more important Scottish elections looming, and their expected high tide of MPs would not wish.

If Miliband's government falls after 5 minutes, he can always say "I said I wouldn't be bought. I said I would not bribe.  I didn't."
Which is  decent ground for the next election. 

And if the Tories win the next election, the SNP are in serious trouble. A vote for Nicola is a vote for Tory rule from Westminster. The chances of the SNP retaining all their gains in a second election would be much reduced.

Maybe this Miliband fellow really has thought through what he was saying, after all.
Hell Yeah!


Steven_L said...

And if the Tories win the next election, the SNP are in serious trouble.

You still don't get it! Tories in Westminster = more Scots support for independence.

The proper Nats (i.e. not the jonny-come-lately central belt minkers they need to vote SNP/yes to win) want a situation where Scots voters reject the tories, but get the tories.

It's not about 'austerity' or 'food banks' or 'trident' or anything else. It's about Scotland leaving the UK.

Bill Quango MP said...

But not if it can be said that it was the SNP that invited the Tories back by rejecting Labour ?

Nick Drew said...

No Deal ... did not miliprat actually add "while they want another referendum in 2106"?

he may have been forced into something less qualified in follow-up interviews today, but ...

Blue Eyes said...

Ed M was tough enough to stand up to Obama, hell yes he's tough enough to govern alone!

(Doesn't failing to do a deal with the SNP mean he is *more* likely to have to kow-tow to them, because every vote is a potential loss, unless there is a formal arrangement?)

Steven L is right. The SNP and the Tories have a strange mutual interest.

Jock McJock said...

Re:You still don't get it.

Its not an anti-English issue. If it was why are there so many of us in your midst. It's an anti-Tory view the Scots (and SNP) have. We just don't get the idea of progression while climbing on the backs of others.

john miller said...

Err, I hate to break it to you but, well, sadly,


If you've knifed your brother in the back, everything else is trivial.

He'd do a deal with Adolf and Joe and Satan to get into a coalition.


john miller said...


A vote for Nicola?

You do realise she is not standing as an MP?

The West Lothian question has evolved into something more sinister. A local councillor is unaccountably governing policy in the House of Commons.

DJK said...

The SNP have rather boxed themselves into a corner. But then their strategy all along has been to blame "Westminster" for any and every failing. If Milliband won't do a deal on the SNP's terms then it's because the Westminster parties are ganging together against Scotland, the only remedy for which is independence.

dearieme said...

It might be worth distinguishing carefully between a Labour government, and a government led by Mr Moribund. No doubt Balls would stab him in the back if the chance arose.

Electro-Kevin said...

"We just don't get the idea of progression while climbing on the backs of others."

Tuition fees ???

When will you be paying those back to English students then ?

Of course it's racism. Living in racially diverse areas has never protected Ukip voters from charges of racism - and if the SNP (an ENP would simply not be allowed !) were given full and fair scrutiny they would be called bigoted little Scotlanders.

Electro-Kevin said...

Jock Mc Jock.

What we have is an anti English aparthied going on in education, health and old-age support.

If the English were black skinned then the travesty would be much clearer and even you would not accept the unfairness of it all.

Y Ddraig Goch said...

I saw an interview with Alex Salmond recently where he was asked more-or-less this "you wouldn't dare vote against Labour" question. His reply was interesting. He pointed out that they could still put down amendments to legislation. He gave HS2 as an example where the SNP could propose an amendment to force construction to start in Scotland and proceed south. What do Labour do then? If they allow it, then the SNP have a major victory to show off at home. If they vote it down, then the SNP can say that it confirms that "Westminster" will always marginalise Scotland and independence is the only way.

In that kind of duel of wits between Milliband and Salmond, who is your money on?

Blue Eyes said...

Indeed. Salmond is one of the shrewdest politicians of our generation, and Miliband is one of the most clunking.

Jan said...

"A vote for Nicola?

You do realise she is not standing as an MP?

The West Lothian question has evolved into something more sinister. A local councillor is unaccountably governing policy in the House of Commons."

Agreed J Miller

I was thinking this while the leaders of the parties were busy debating with each other. How many of them are MPs? Our electoral system has become seriously skewed.

FPTP allowed the LibDems to have an undue influence but that's how the system works and they were all elected accountable MPs. Not so with the leaders of SNP, Plaid and UKIP and the Greens only have 1 MP who isn't the leader of the party.

It's seriously weird if nothing else.

andrew said...


If the past is a guide to the future it indicates Milliband is a little deficient in the strategic, ok at spraying out thoughts that appeal to his core until you think about it, and is v. good at old labour politics.

The trouble is that the political game is changing.

On either side I think 'wise strategic positioning' == 'blind luck'

Up in Scotland the game has not changed for the SNP - for the last 30 years or so it has been Labour or SNP and a salting of LibDem. The only likely change is that this becomes SNP with a salting of others.
So a SNP sock puppet will look competent compared to an English pol.
Never mind that Salmond and Sturgeon are very capable - that is a bonus for the SNP.

Electro-Kevin said...

Are we to assume that there is no right wing, protestant, Unionist feeling in Scotland ?

Up until 1997 the Tories had 11 MPs North of the border. They were kicked out with the Blair take over.

Where they should have tried to make a comeback they haven't bothered.

The Tories took us to war to defend fewer Brits in the Falklands than live in a one-horse town in Scotland. Things have changed since then.

They'd do just about anything to protect their beloved party over their country - if that means giving up on people in at risk regions then so be it.

There is more to this country than the Red team and the Blue team politics.

Under the circumstances it is easy for politicians (who aren't subject to harsh scrutiny by the BBC) to play blinders.