Wednesday, 27 May 2015
Queen's Speech - Referendum moments
The only competition it has really is the new Scotland act that also plays out the next stage of the Scottish 'neverendum'. The bill devolves huge powers to the Scottish Parlilament but also will be met by the SNP party as a 'betrayl of the Vow' given back in September. Whether it is or not is irrelavant to the politics of the situation. Parliament is about to find out how much fun it is going to be having nationalists who want their own Country sitting on the benches of the Government of the Colonial masters.
As for the EU referendum, I think the Tories have a good chance of getting the outcome they want as long as they learn from the SNP playbook and play very nasty all round.
1. Agree to Referendum at end of 2016
2. Try to negotiate for 6 months from now
3. Announce in January that France, Germany et al have not given enough concessions and that Cameron is minded to back an 'Out' vote
4. Wait for the EU to fold as it sees subsidies and indeed its existential existence threatened (especially if Greece has exited Eurozone too, a distinct posibility)
5. Finally receive some small but meaningful concessions by summer 2016
6. Decide to campaign afte long and hard thought for a vote to stay in
7. Win the referendum, shoot the UKIP fox, be seen as great leader for the UK until Scotland leaves...
Sounds easy, requires real balls to execute - I doubt they can do it that well!