Wednesday 27 May 2015

Queen's Speech - Referendum moments

The real action today in the Queen's Speech is the move to put into law the referendum on EU membership. This it eh political action which will dominate the next 18 months and in many ways is the most dangerous Tory bill (for them!) to come to Parliament since the Maastricht treaty in 1997 - maybe even as dangerous as the Poll Tax bill of 1989.

The only competition it has really is the new Scotland act that also plays out the next stage of the Scottish 'neverendum'. The bill devolves huge powers to the Scottish Parlilament but also will be met by the SNP party as a 'betrayl of the Vow' given back in September. Whether it is or not is irrelavant to the politics of the situation. Parliament is about to find out how much fun it is going to be having nationalists who want their own Country sitting on the benches of the Government of the  Colonial masters.

As for the EU referendum, I think the Tories have a good chance of getting the outcome they want as long as they learn from the SNP playbook and play very nasty all round.

1. Agree to Referendum at end of 2016
2. Try to negotiate for 6 months from now
3. Announce in January that France, Germany et al have not given enough concessions and that Cameron is minded to back an 'Out' vote
4. Wait for the EU to fold as it sees subsidies and indeed its existential existence threatened (especially if Greece has exited Eurozone too, a distinct posibility)
5. Finally receive some small but meaningful concessions by summer 2016
6. Decide to campaign afte long and hard thought for a vote to stay in
7. Win the referendum, shoot the UKIP fox, be seen as great leader for the UK until Scotland leaves...

Sounds easy, requires real balls to execute - I doubt they can do it that well!


dearieme said...

Vote tactically! Whether you really prefer in or out, vote "out" (and tell every opinion pollster that that's your intention).

DJK said...

And if the outs do win, then we'll get a serious counter offer from the EU. Cameron will announce that circumstances have changed and a second vote is required. (Repeat ad infinitum until the right result is achieved.)

Scan said...

The pantomime will begin and everything will be done to change the appearance of the European Union without changing a thing. The UK will vote overwhelmingly to stay in, and it'll all be done without those involved losing face - in fact they'll come out looking like they've made many important decisions.

The EU will split into the rich "North" and the poor "South (and east)" so the rich nations don't have to transfer their wealth to the poor; the poor nations can devalue their currencies to survive (and will stop electing parties that are a danger to the continuation of the EU). Call Me Dave will proclaim there'll no longer be a need for people to emigrate from those countries (Harrah! Immigration solved!) and that we can safely integrate into one strong economic union now that we're all the same without those pesky poor nations.

In the real world it'll all still be controlled from the centre, the free movement of people will still cover all EU nations (rich and poor), regulation will increase, productivity will fall, more and more people and organisations will be proscribed, and we'll all head towards the socialist utopia after all.

Not that I'm a pesimist you understand :)

Steven_L said...

Wait for the EU to fold as it sees subsidies and indeed its existential existence threatened (especially if Greece has exited Eurozone too, a distinct posibility)

If you look back at my 2015 C@W predictions, you will see I have Pondemos to win the Spanish elections in December. This may form the other half of a pincer movement on the franco-german axis.

Anonymous said...

If the Tories don't tear themselves apart over the referendum, they've got a wonderful sideshow to distract everyone.

Chances are people will vote to stay in, so they get 2 and a half years of bread and circuses whilst they enact policy, much of which will go under the media's radar.

As for the speech, some opportunities missed - rationalizing VAT levels to a single rate across all products jumps out - would have increased overall take, whilst allowing a reduction in the headline rate, and doing this when we've negative inflation cuts the sting. Tax cut trumpeted, inflation not particularly effected, more cash for the treasury. No more campaigns about tampons being VATable whilst some luxury item isn't...

The speech itself was about 2/3rds good, 1/3rd crap.

hovis said...

The media focus may be on the referendum, and lot sof squwaking on how the EU neuter our freedoms blah blah blah whilst this same government introduces totalitarian levels of control under the guise of terror & security legislation.

They truly are evil shits.

andrew said...

Wont happen.

French wont allow it.
I think they still regret letting us in.

James Higham said...

Only problem with the analysis is that Cameron wants in, as most know.