Wednesday 1 July 2015

Commercial EUnion : We won't make a Drachma out of a crisis

Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has offered new concessions to the country's creditors.
 But Germany says a new agreement on a bailout would not be possible until after the referendum this weekend.

Some sources are suggesting that a deal was very close just before the Greeks withdrew for the referendum. But that the creditors wouldn't budge.

Greece has defaulted on its IMF loans.
The ECB hasn't said it will definitely  bail out, erm.. lend the Greek banks enough to get through another month.

Anyone else get the feeling that Angela and the EU has had enough of the Greek tradgedy? That they think they can manage the default fallout quite well now. Better than they could have done even two years ago ?

And that the EU has decided to take the hit at this point in time, rather than down the road ? The Rubicon has been crossed?  And whatever the Greeks decide to do now, it won't be enough ?


dearieme said...

They may even have their Quisling all lined up.

Blue Eyes said...

Tsiparas' apparent huge (at least in terms of presentation) climbdown shows that the creditors were right not to budge. Syriza thought they were being clever, but maybe now the world will see what naive mavericks they have been.

Once the third bailout is secure, expect to see something of a recovery in Greece fairly quickly.

Laban Tall said...

Looks like Tsipras has blinked first - those pensioners outside the closed banks ...woe unto the defeated ... but surrender means a slo-mo disaster rather than a quick one.

many moons back I posted to the effect that Tsipras and Merkel were either dishonest or misguided when they told their respective electorates that

a) Greece could stay in the Euro without crushing austerity
b) Germany would keep Greece in the Euro without putting German taxpayers on the hook

Laban Tall said...

BQ - latest reports are that Tsipras is denying a climbdown, referendum goes ahead, defiant etc etc, so maybe it’s still all up in the air. But what if the banks stay closed ?

"Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws."

It’s always possible that Greece will be left hanging pour encourager Spain, Italy and Portugal, but the will to power in EU apparatus is very strong, so I expect Greece to stay in, barring a supreme recovery of national feeling and a hefty No vote.

National feeling is of course anathema to the EU. German vice chancellor Gabriel today in the Bundestag :

"not sticking to the rules that govern the eurozone "is a return to pure nationalism. If you allow via blackmail one party to put forward national interests above will of all others - the likes of Le Pen and Wilders win"

CityUnslicker said...

I have seen this movie before, in Greece and Italy. What happens is the Government falls, a technocratic non-elected Government is pu tin place to enact the creditors will and the game continues.

Tsipras and others get lynched, metaphorically and all sorts about Putin funding and reds under the bed will come out to tarnish them still further.

This is the EU way.

I think the consensus is wrong and Greece would do better with the Drachma but in an EU version of Project Fear they will vote yes and the above will come to pass.

Bill Quango MP said...

Not so sure.

Right now the Greeks are panicking and want to be let back into the club. They are at the promise anything stage.

Angela could have instructed the talks to begin. But instead, they say ..'we shall see..'

I think EU has decided enough is enough. If the Greeks are serious, then they can talk to us in a few days. Let those ATM queues build up a bit longer to really let the message sink in.
But if the Greeks decide to have a referendum and vote down the deal ...they they can look for the door. Which won't be hard to find as they will have just passed through it.

John miller said...

Socialism only works in a country of peasants who are oppressed to remain peasants, or a rich country which aspires to peasantry.

It definitely does not work in a poor country aspiring to become richer.

Nick Drew said...

from our Berlin correspondent

Angela is an Osti, don't let's forget

"We want to make sure nobody else will want this"

as I mentioned last week ... my German source says, she's had enough - and she's the one that makes the weather

does this make her a destroyer, or the keeper of the flame? time will tell

in the meantime, events dear boy are piling in, and Cameron - if he knows how to play it - is being given an ever stronger hand

Timbo614 said...

I give up today, yes no, accept,'s getting like this:

There's a hole in my economy dear Angela dear Angela,
there's a hole in my economy dear Angela, a hole.

Then fix it dear Alex dear Alex,
fix it dear Alex dear Alex, fix it!

With what shall I fix it dear Angela dear Angela,
with what shall I fix it dear Angela, with what?

with poverty dear Alex dear Alex,
with poverty dear Alex, with poverty.

But the people don't like it dear Angela, dear Angela,
the people don't like it dear Angela, dont like it.

Let them vote dear Alex dear Alex
let them vote dear Alex, Let them vote,

But they'll vote the wrong way dear Angela dear Angela,
they'll vote the wrong way dear angela, the wrong way.

Then fix it dear Alex dear Alex,
fix it dear Alex, fix it!

With what shall I fix it dear Angela dear Angela,
with what shall I fix it dear Angela, with what?

With funds dear Alex dear Alex,
use funds dear dear Alex, use funds.

But the funds have run out dear Angela dear Angela,
the funds have run out dear Angela, run out!

Then fill them dear Alex dear Alex,
fill them dear Alex, fill them!

With what shall I fill them dear Angela dear Angela,
With what shall I fill them dear Angela, with what?

Use bonds dear Alex dear Alex,
Use bonds, dear Alex, use bonds!

But no one will buy them dear Angela dear Angela
no one will buy them dear Angela, not even you!

Then borrow dear Alex dear Alex,
borrow it dear Alex, borrrow it!

but no one will lend it dear Angela dear Angela
no one will lend it dear Angela, not even you!

Use the economy dear Alex dear Alex,
with the economy dear Alex, try the economy!

But there's a hole in my economy dear Angela dear Angela,
there's a hole in my economy dear Angela, a hole.

Nick Drew said...

we like bloggerel

Anonymous said...

There's a remarkable precedent for an embattled European leader calling a referendum and provoking a 'robust' German response. Chancellor Schuschnigg of Austria in 1938 called a referendum on no further union with Germany.

"To resolve the political uncertainty in the country and to convince Hitler and the rest of the world that the people of Austria wished to remain Austrian and independent of the Third Reich, Schuschnigg, with the full agreement of the President and other political leaders, decided to proclaim a plebiscite to be held on 13 March."

Hitler invaded within the week. Merkel's pulled the ECB plug within a couple of days.

andrew said...

to be in the eu/euro you need a degree of trust and it not only has greece been making up their national stats, they have been persecuting their own statisticians.

expect more oversight over eu funded spending no matter what.

Budgie said...

ND, interesting information, and I can see what you mean by "Merkel makes the weather". However that will weaken Cameron's hand rather than strengthen it. Plus Cameron is a lousy negotiator anyway - he is too English.

hovis said...

It's hard to tell what is happening as it both sides are playing to their own domestic audiences and outwardly say something else. I am not convinced about the rumoutrs one way or the other.

As is, the fear card will be played by the EU at warp factor 9 from now.
I would not be suprised to see the Greeks vote yes, but it wil be very close, and not enough to settle this once and for all - even then a yes is a temporary solution until we get here again in 5/6months time. The mental fracture has already taken place, the EU is not the safe haven it was perceived. We are seeing the desperationb stage before either mental breakdown or hardening into a FuQue.

As to Cameron this would strengthen his hand if he had mind to actually negotiating rather than roll over and ask for him tummy to be tickled.

Anonymous said...

From the Channel 4 interview with the Italians, the will give Greece the money - but they won't give it to Tsiparas. It's regime change.

If Nige gets a head of steam and it looks like the UK is heading for the exit - and all the cash it gives to the EU project - who will they target?

Getting rid of the EU is far more important that getting rid of ISIS