Thursday, 16 July 2015

Greece Poll Disaster....

polls

15 comments:

hovis said...

missed the <= in the 6 month option given the now obvious insolvency of the banking system.

Bill Quango MP said...

This can is now so dented and flattened it may soon need frisbeeing the road instead of kicking.

Anonymous said...

What price a change of heart in Germany, though? I reckon 3 months of serious violence would do the trick.

(For MI5 readers: I am NOT advocating this.)

Phil said...

As far as I can see, anon, the Germans are being kept in the dark about what is really happening in Greece and why, and what the position of the Greek government is. Turns out the German MSM is about as free as ours....

I'm guessing that once Greek nationalists start setting off car-bombs in Frankfurt then attitudes on both sides will simply harden. Then we have the inevitable change in government to the hard-left in Spain and Portugal to think about. A hard-left "Can't pay won't pay" government in Spain would have a lot more leverage than Greece. The Spanish general election will take place in Q4 this year and the left is doing very well...

If this wasn't enough to think about, we have the likely crash in the Chinese economy on the horizon, which will throw an enormous Stillson wrench into the global financial system.

"We live in interesting times" as many pigeons seem to be coming home to roost at the same time....

CityUnslicker said...

Phil - I doubt China will crash yet. They can simply print their way through any crisis. They don;t give a shit about fiat currency or global systems or capitalism - their communists.

They can print their way to control all of the levers in China and dare the rest of the world to tell them not too. They learned this trick from buying trillions of worthless US T-Bills after all.

Of course, it will lead to an unholy mess, but I doubt the West will call them out on it for a long time certainly the Middle East and Russia have other worries and need China to buy their crude oil.

andrew said...


I don't see Greeks setting bombs off in Germany, not even at the Ruckertstrasse.

The difficult one for Germany is that they get to choose whether Greece Grexits or not now. And they carry the can for the choice.
If the IMF officially says the debt level is too high, you either explicitly disagree (they haven't and sometime soon Grexit makes you look stupid) or agree (they haven't and transfers that northern europe won't pay for logically ensue).
Or do nothing and hope to blame someone else. The problem is the greeks caved in and so they can't be blamed at the moment.
So I expect Greece will be under intense (German inspired) scrutiny, which won't improve relations.

Given the petrol bombs last night, the more likely target is their own parliament.
Since this is the organisation that applied for and took the loans and many of those who were in power at the time (the last 20y or so) are still MPs, and voted for this deal despite the referendum, both an easier and more accurate target.

What I think is more likely is that as many (~50%?) of greek workers are sole traders / self employed, and the banks are shut at the moment, a good number will simply carry on ignoring the banks and stick to cash when things 'normalise' (for whatever value of normal can be applied).

If they get caught, as long as all substantial assets have been signed over to spouse etc, and the cash is hidden, there is not a lot the govt can do - the prisons are already over full (133% of capacity at 12500 odd in '12) and there is no money to lock up/ feed thousands more.

i.e. I expect mass civil disobedience.



Blue Eyes said...

Even fewer Greeks to pay their taxes? That would certainly be a surprise.

James Higham said...

Germans are being kept in the dark about what is really happening in Greece and why

Of course they are. As CUS said, China won't go yet - this is a game of one piece at a time. Interesting moves in Italy, media starting to move in on them.

Nick Drew said...

oil looking distinctly soft again ...

Budgie said...

Please, please stop being so British. We, and only we, think it is a problem of the euro. Neither the Greeks nor the Germans do. To them the euro is a given, now what's the question? The Greeks think that Germany/capitalism is the problem. The Germans think lazy corrupt rich Greeks are the problem.

Phil said...

"They can print their way to control all of the levers in China and dare the rest of the world to tell them not too."

Not quite that simple. They've already been playing that game for quite some time. The manufacturing sector flattened off a few years ago and they have been busily pumping up the infrastructure investment since then - it is now 70% of the economy propping up the remaining 30%. Clearly that's pretty unbalanced. Of course, as they have continued to pump up the public sector investment spending it has pushed up wages making China gradually less competitive (especially compared to robots).

China has run very fast of the cliff. It is now suspended in mid-air just waiting for the realisation to dawn that it is not on land anymore and then it will collapse.

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