Wednesday, 16 December 2015

There may not be a European Referendum




Lots of press coverage over the last few days about UK attitudes to the EU referendum. All of these show that one way or another, things are currently too close to call.

Now in reality we would expect that status quo options would jump up when people were really faced with ticking a box to leave the EU, but nonetheless people are worried.

At a recent City dinner, all the conversation was that Cameron has lost control of the negotiations, will get nothing and then by accident there will be a Brexit.

Which would suit me just fine and give us plenty to talk about for years to come.

However, Cameron has a great last shot which people are forgetting. He has already said he will resign as leader before 2020. If he can't get anywhere with Europe and fears he will lose a referendum, then an option open to him is to resign. Tony Blair, his mentor, did this after all, ducking out and avoiding the EU question altogether.

With Cameron gone, the new Tory leader would have room to either move the date or dissemble totally the referendum idea. Many people in the Country would be hugely relieved, as would the EU who would throw in some weak concessions to show how happy everyone really was.

UKIP may surge, but with a weak Labour party the Tories may still be in a very strong place to win in 2020 and avoid the EU Referendum.

No doubt Mr. Osborne has already informed the Prime Minister of this way out of the very big hole now dug.

14 comments:

A Non said...

Nah. If Cameron wants to win an In vote, he needs to remind his EU colleagues how absurd they sound when they say Britain can't have this, that or the other. I had a good laugh when in the same breath the Polish govt said that there was no room for negotiation on the right to claim benefits, yet the reinvigorated Schengen border force was an affront to national sovereignty.

I think there are lots of people in my position who would prefer to stay in, but can't stomach the Belgians and the Greeks calling the shots in my country. Who do they think they are??!

Pax Europa said...

The EU's greatest success is the peace is has brought to Europe over 70 years. It is ironic that it may founder on the effects of their success - a safe haven for refugees.

Steven_L said...

Or then again, maybe there will be two EU votes, or three, or however many it takes to get the right answer?

andrew said...


Doubt Osbourne would, as he was chancellor in the last parliament, the electorate would hold him to the manifesto if he became PM.

Someone who was not in the last cabinet could probably bluster their way out of this hole. Cripes! who could I be thinking of?

CityUnslicker said...

SL - i note the second refernedum has already been floated this week. One to make sure we know what we are doing....

A Non said...

Well it is a popular view that if we vote to Leave, then the real negotiation begins...

By The Way, the first thing the rEU has to do if we quit is to recast the treaties - which is apparently Impossible beforehand...

Timbo614 said...

I subscribe to The Times and if comments on there are anything to judge by on the EU topics we would be leaving pronto!

Electro-Kevin said...

Pax Europa - You are wrong. What brought peace to Europe for 70 years was the anihilation of the Nazis in WW2 followed by the formation of NATO.

Bill Quango MP said...

Pax Europa - You are wrong. What brought peace to Europe for 70 years was the annihilation of the Nazis in WW2 followed by the formation of NATO.

{and if you don't count the Balkans wars. Which Europe doesn't..but they did kill and injure 200,000 people.}

dearieme said...

That's a good point. Presumably it could happen because Tito had kept Yugoslavia as neither an American nor a Russian satrapy. Quite a cost, that.

MyByeByeDaveName said...

As I have mentioned here many times before, what will do Cameron in is the comments he made at PMQs this week regarding immigration.

He brayed that he had met his promise on accepting 1000 refugees by Christmas and that more would be welcomed. He added that these people would be guaranteed Homes, Healthcare and Welfare.

Camerons problem will arise when a homeless ex-squaddie is found dead on the streets or some dying child is refused drugs that an asylum seeker has received or (as continues to happen) some unfortunate kills themselves because they are refused welfare payments.

Funny that we had to put on a charidee tv show with Wills n'Arry to build homes for ex-servicemen when immigrants are 'guaranteed' the same.
If I was guaranteed more than the locals, I'd move too - why wouldnt they keep coming?

If UKIP got their act together and did some soft-focus interviews with ex-service personel in bad situations, contrast it with Cameron giving a speech on Europe and or immigration, they'd blow the referendum out of the water.
Its a no-brainer.
Unfortunately its UKIP we're talking about, so they'll probably fuck it up.

A Non said...

Hmm, except even the most idiotic Ukipper surely knows that Syria is not in the EU?

Anonymous said...

"Hmm, except even the most idiotic Ukipper surely knows that Syria is not in the EU?"

Two observations A Non

1) Mrs Merkel has opened the door to any refugee who can make it to the Schengen Zone. Add an Eu passport and any and all could come here.

2) If Turkey's is admitted to the EU then the EU will share an incredibly porous border with Syria.

Also no-one else mentioned Syria....

A Non said...

You are an idiotic Ukipper, and I claim my €7.