Saturday 9 January 2016

Oil Price: More Than Just a Glut

Even as a consumer (with an augmented short-oil position), I find it hard to be insouciant about oil prices as low as this.  Something's gonna give.   Politically, economically, socially, all three ...   Saudi, Russia, Nigeria, all three ...

Then there's Shell and its BG gambit.  Trying to emulate John Browne's BP (1998) by cleverly buying assets at the bottom?  A hopelessly mis-timed play.

(Incidentally, in moving on gas-heavy BG they were doubling-up on their already humungous mistake of pouring $$$ into Qatar LNG, which Shell insiders swear they never would have done if they'd seen this coming ...)

Then, there are the legions of very nasty people who've made their 'livings' from quietly skimming off oil profits (which ain't too difficult @ $120, but altogether harder just now).  A bit like when drug dealers can't deal drugs any more, they will be looking for the next source of ill-gotten $$$: and what, do we think, might that be?  We won't enjoy it, whatever it is - because it's our money either way.

'Interesting times' doesn't get close.



BE said...

It's an interesting thought-experiment: if several of the UK's big industries failed, would we invade France?

Or would we have a couple of riots, print a bit of money, then elect a Tory government to sort it all out?

Nick Drew said...

... and then invite the French to come and take over our failed industries!

(except the miserable cheese-eating ingrates won't even pick up our money off the table)

in my days as a staff officer (army), whenever we held strategy exercises, after the scenario was unveiled and everyone had thought about it for a few minutes, the tradition was for someone to say: OK, well first we invade France

dearieme said...

More logical to invade Norway: present it as reparations for them naughty Vikings.

Suff said...

Agreed legions of them but we keep voting them in

Electro-Kevin said...

SMPL@ ND's 10.33

A funny reader comment on the Daily Mail's article today on the calming benefits of folding clothes, Japanese style.

"Yes. I have folded my clothes and organised my drawers. Now I have an insatiable urge to invade Korea !"

Seriously though. We can't predict the reactions of other nation's losses by our own. We are a very special people indeed. Those who move across many borders to get here say so all the time.