Tuesday, 8 March 2016

US Politics betting post

I have been lucky the last few days to meet some very senior and influential Republican party types on their various visits to the UK.


So lucky that I have been promised a dinner with Mr Trump on my next visit to the USA! (I reminded myself there are 2 kinds of luck)


On the other hand, much of what they say is known in the media more widely, but there was one interesting titbit which I have acted on.


Apparently, as well as wishing Trump to succeed over Cruz who the party bosses think is even more dangerous, they also are quietly confident that a brokered convention will be the outcome of the Primary votes.


This means that no candidate has the backing necessary to gain the Republican nomination.


In this case, the plan is to scrap all the current candidates, on the basis that none has passed muster and to appoint instead a new candidate who is more centrist and likely to beat HRC in the General Election in November.


This candidate has already been chosen and his name is Paul Ryan.


On paddy Power you can currently get him at 33-1 to be the Republican Nominee (and 66-1 for the Presidency for the very brave!) Well, it was worth £10 of my money as the chances of this scenario must be better than those odds.


CU

15 comments:

david morris said...

Stars in your eyes.......

john cheshire said...

He's come a long way from singing with his brother in the 1970s.

Bill Quango MP said...

OK - done it.
But don't expect to see that 310 again

Sebastian Weetabix said...

They're kidding themselves. Trump is going to win at this rate; and lots of angry people will be quite a bit angrier if the men in suits try to stop him.

The men in suits haven't got past the denial stage yet. Soon they will be bargaining. It's a bit like a redundancy or a nasty diagnosis, they have to get used to the idea.

CityUnslicker said...

SW - some truth in that, but with Cruz coming back a bit recently a brokered convention is a possible outcome. Trump cant argue he is a runaway candidate if it comes to that.

will be interesting to watch.

Electro-Kevin said...

Impressed.

I expect you'll find The Donald to be good company.

andrew said...


If they run trump, they lose - he will be found out from boring old facts
If they stitch trump up too overtly, they lose - too undemocratic
If they run anyone from the current list, they lose - they lost to trump

Nice article
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/why-is-trump-driving-conservatives-so-crazy.html#

Any other unknown runs, they probably lose - as no-one will know who they are

Underneath it all, who wants to stand for president and lose?

Thud said...

Cruz with a decent Veep (Kasich) would be my choice something my large American family hope for.Trump going into a convention and being bounced out would result in a victory for HRC of historic proportion.

Dick the Prick said...

One of the more interesting things has been the overt level of gerrymandering going on. I guess it's always the case and it seems casual not using the money wisely but yeah, a bit of an eye opener.

On another note, how on earth they cope with 12 month campaigns every 4 years freaks the bejeesus out of me; I like my politics fine but this takes the piss.

Steven_L said...

Thanks, I'll have a pop tonight too if the odds are still long.

Betfair gave me 17/2 on an Australian / India final in the World T20 the other day. That looks more like a 3/1 shot at the most to me, but I think it'll basically come down to whether Australia can beat South Africa or England in a Semi and 17/2 is a steal and leaves plenty of room to hedge if they both reach the semis.

AndrewZ said...

The government of the United States of America is divided into three branches, known as the Execrable, the Larcenous and the Jaundiced. The Execrable branch is headed by the Resident, so-called because he gets a free house. He is elected by the media after serving a four-year election campaign. The Resident has a sign on his desk that says "The Buck Stops Here" because once your money's gone to Washington it's never coming back.

The Larcenous branch consists of the House of Reprehensibles and the Bloviate. Each state has a number of Reprehensibles who compete to impose as many new taxes as possible on other states in order to increase spending in their own. Bloviators are elected to make speeches lasting a fixed term of six years.

The Jaundiced branch is a bunch of bitter old lawyers who think that they should be running the country. Their job is to ensure that contentious political issues are never settled through the political process.

The system as a whole is called "checks and balances" because no matter who holds the balance of power the taxpayer has to cut them a check.

andrew said...

Well, having looked at what betfair has in the list who is not currently in the race.
He is the best 'other' candidate there, so your friends look to have a point and @55-1 I had £5 on the basis that is about the price of the economist/LRB.

Steven_L said...

Well, having looked at what betfair has in the list who is not currently in the race. He is the best 'other' candidate there

Maybe CU and his rich American friends are the guys laying your 55/1 donkey?

andrew said...

Almost certainly :)

JS said...

Ryan now in as short as 10-1 on BetVictor.