Monday, 13 June 2016

Brexit rumbles on but not for much longer now

I can't believe that less than two weeks away from the referendum we are in a zone where many remainers are totally infected with self-doubt and are openly talking about Leave winning.


This should have been an easy Remain win and it is hard to see why they have lost the case so badly. There are only 2 brexit winning arguments, the first, which is where I stand, is that the EU is a non-democratic entity not given to improving Europe and hopelessly tied to the failing Euro. The second is that it has promoted uncontrolled immigration.


Neither of these should be insurmountable, the first is too challenging to explain to the General Public in an election campaign, and on its own terms should be a struggle to convince to vote for given the economic doom forecasts of leaving.


The second was very easy to deal with, go to Europe, get a break on immigration controls for a few years and declare victory.


Of course, Cameron could not do this at all and so we are where we are, with the vote on a knife edge with only a slightly larger chance of remaining than leaving.


Over the next 10 days a few stories are going to be huge too and keep the referendum off the front pages:


1 - Orlando  - a muslim anti-gay terrorist story is a bad thing for the Remainers and Lefties in general and they try and square a circle of pro-gay and pro-islam stance.


2 - Euro 2016 - many brexiters, including myself, have better things to do with this than worry about the vote.  Perhaps if England are expelled and the fans sing FUCK THE EU enough it will help remain as that will repel so may people (I love that chant!). Either way, much of the population of voters is not listening.


3 - Pisotorius sentencing - this may only last a few days, but is right here now.


So Events may yet swing it, certainly it is an interesting place to be. The Pound has dropped a lot today, showing the City trader remainers are indeed worried.

12 comments:

Nick Drew said...

you didn't mention an ISIS outrage in France during Euro2016

Remain will know exactly how to turn that into votes for the status quo

sorry, but there it is

andrew said...

Only one valid argument really

"This is our country, not yours"

It seems to have a certain resonance.

andrew said...

Alternatively according to Ms Kaminska / FT

As a ps to discussing digital monopolies and binary outcomes:

"Those sitting on the fence on the Brexit issue will be familiar with all these dilemmas. On all fronts it’s an increasingly arbitrary coin-flip of a choice with as many goods as there are bads."

Blue Eyes said...

Remain seem to have run out of arguments, and to my delight the media today are full of comments about how various Remainers are getting their excuses in early.

You know you are in a downward spiral when you wheel out Gordon Reneged on a Referendum in 2009 Brown...

Anyway, I still doubt that we will Brexit, but "the big mo" does seem to be with Leave... Leavers seem more earnest, with the Remain side appearing to be treating this like a general election.

Time Will Tell!

Electro-Kevin said...

Project Fear has failed because the worst is already being done to the working classes.

I don't know many who are for Remain but that could be my social strata.

I've been reading the betting odds incorrectly too. The betting shops want to make a profit so it is good to have few high Brexit winners and many low Remain losers.

I reckon they're hedging on Leave.

An atrocity in France ?

No. I can't see Remain winning on that one either. But what an idiot Donald Trump has been over Orlando. All he had to do was keep his mouth shut.

Electro-Kevin said...

Aslef and RMT are for Leave, btw. They know that the EU has done nothing for the working man.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

Your two Brexit-winning arguments do in fact win the argument in many peoples' minds, which is why Remain is looking shaky at present.

It's expedience v. principle and a lot of people are thinking on principle.

It will cost us, but then our democracy and independence cost us a lot more, and in blood, the first time around. With any luck, the cost this time will only be economic, and only temporary. Bring it on!

James Higham said...

Bring it on.

Steven_L said...

The main reason I'm going to vote leave is that I think the EU is basically 'shite'. I respect that other people may look at the EU and see something they think is 'good' or 'nice' or whatever. That's fine, they are entitled to their views. But personally I reckon it's utter shite, so I'm going to vote to leave it.

dearieme said...

Even the Orlando massacre will help Leave: "Merkel wants to dump countless invaders on us" will be the thought.

Electro-Kevin said...

"There are only 2 brexit winning arguments, the first, which is where I stand, is that the EU is a non-democratic entity not given to improving Europe and hopelessly tied to the failing Euro. The second is that it has promoted uncontrolled immigration." (Main post)

And a third argument:

The EU is an economic basket case.

----

PS, To be more accurate the EU is not just undemocratic, it is ANTI-democratic. It puts limits on who we can elect before taking away our national votes in EU institutions.

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